ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7601 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:43 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:I think the takeaway from Matthew and the models is that in general the Euro and GFS did a good job showing us up to day 4 approximately what would happen. Not exactly but very useable. Day 5 and beyond not so much.

I think it's natural for weather geeks like me to really WANT to know what's gonna happen so we look at the long ranges. We hope that somehow the long range runs beyond say 4 days are going to tell us something meaningful. In fact they don't. Just look at the evolution of the steering pattern for Matthew and the sizes of the ridges and cutoff lows. Some features were modeled but never appeared. At least nothing close to the shape and size indicated at day 6.

For the next storm, I'm going to try and really ignore the longer ranges. It causes only disappointment, stress, unfounded excitement, unfounded concern. You've gotta wait until day 3 to really know where a storm is going when you have a recurve potential and or coast hugging situation.

I just wish that the TV promets and even some of the better internet mets would take a step back and stop acting at day 6 like they really know the answer. It isn't helpful. And the TV mets with their desperate need to be first on the story are incessantly declaring all clears when they should be more patient. A lot of pride there. One day it will go before a fall.


I kept saying that longer ranges were difficult to predict. Indeed, this storm - in its entire lifetime - had so much uncertainty beyond about day 3. The fact that it hit a different ridge or trough every few days made it so challenging. This wasn't a slam dunk forecast like, say, Irene or Sandy.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7602 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM shows Matthew passing close to SE Florida towards the NW Caribbean where it makes a run at a hurricane again :double: this looks doubtful given it is the NAVGEM

https://s11.postimg.org/lw2l3qzn7/navge ... atl_24.png



Forgive me if I am wrong, but I thought the NAVGEM was thE first to show a track left and towards florida coming out the carribbean. It caught the strong ridge building back, but appeared to over do it, because it kept being on left side of the tvcn?
Last edited by Ntxw on Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Removed img tags
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7603 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 07, 2016 11:24 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 30.6N 80.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2016 0 30.6N 80.6W 968 58
1200UTC 08.10.2016 12 32.5N 80.0W 974 53
0000UTC 09.10.2016 24 33.4N 77.8W 982 63
1200UTC 09.10.2016 36 34.4N 75.9W 984 60
0000UTC 10.10.2016 48 34.2N 72.9W 989 54
1200UTC 10.10.2016 60 34.2N 70.8W 990 51
0000UTC 11.10.2016 72 34.7N 68.9W 987 62
1200UTC 11.10.2016 84 35.7N 68.9W 986 53
0000UTC 12.10.2016 96 36.0N 69.0W 981 44
1200UTC 12.10.2016 108 37.7N 67.5W 976 54
0000UTC 13.10.2016 120 42.8N 68.9W 971 55
1200UTC 13.10.2016 132 43.9N 68.2W 974 43
0000UTC 14.10.2016 144 48.9N 65.1W 984 33
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7604 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:01 am

on the 0zGFS at 384 is that Matthew north of PR if so either the GFS is messed up considering its 384 it would probably be out of the picture rather than north of PR
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7605 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:03 am

Hurricaneman wrote:on the 0zGFS at 384 is that Matthew north of PR if so either the GFS is messed up considering its 384 it would probably be out of the picture rather than north of PR


Jeez, it Matthew held on until then, it would almost be a "Month of Matthew"
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7606 Postby Blinhart » Sat Oct 08, 2016 1:23 am

weathaguyry wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:on the 0zGFS at 384 is that Matthew north of PR if so either the GFS is messed up considering its 384 it would probably be out of the picture rather than north of PR


Jeez, it Matthew held on until then, it would almost be a "Month of Matthew"



Not only that, all the S2K records would be smashed and most likely never reached again.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7607 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 08, 2016 1:46 am

The 0z EUro full rez shows Matthew making landfall south of Charleston then moving over and back out to sea.

The 24 hour plots from TT aren't very useful at this point.

0z GFS
Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7608 Postby USTropics » Sat Oct 08, 2016 2:27 am

tolakram wrote:The 0z EUro full rez shows Matthew making landfall south of Charleston then moving over and back out to sea.

The 24 hour plots from TT aren't very useful at this point.

0z GFS
http://i.imgur.com/skOkcmJ.gif


What's trapped over Cuba that gets sent towards NO in the 00z ECMWF hi-res? It looks like the weak remnants of Matthew are sent through the Bahamas and then sits over Cuba for about 48 hours before moving towards the CGOM at 216 hours but I'm not sure:

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7609 Postby USTropics » Sat Oct 08, 2016 2:34 am

It doesn't look like Matthew is going away anytime soon (at least the remains anyways). Both the GFS and CMC bury this in the eastern Bahamas:

00z CMC
Image

00z GFS
Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7610 Postby USTropics » Sat Oct 08, 2016 2:36 am

Just for kicks, NAVGEM parks this in the NW Caribbean and has this at 180 hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7611 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 08, 2016 4:27 am

In three days we could see 50 knts of shear or zero...we have all seen these shear forecasts be garbage out in time. Impressive storm surge yesterday in St Augustine..anyone thats been there knows what a big deal it is after seeing the video.


"However, the shear forecast appears to be overdone
since both the GFS and ECMWF models indicate that Matthew and Nicole
will both be moving underneath a narrow 200 mb ridge axis, which
should act to reduce the shear across the two cyclones in the 48-96
hour period."
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7612 Postby Vdogg » Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:55 am

BIG change 6z gfs. Recurve is gone. Track goes NE across the Obx then east and OTS. The front captures it and takes it away. I knew it. Never trusted that loop scenario. We'll see if 12z euro picks this up.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7613 Postby Vdogg » Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:58 am

Nicole exits stage right after a second front captures her. Typical fall pattern now. I'd expect NHC track past 72 hrs to change significantly.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7614 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 08, 2016 6:33 am

Vdogg wrote:Nicole exits stage right after a second front captures her. Typical fall pattern now. I'd expect NHC track past 72 hrs to change significantly.
they arent going to change based on one run of one model..if the euro changes then maybe
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7615 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 08, 2016 7:55 am

6z GFS run
Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7616 Postby WPBWeather » Sat Oct 08, 2016 9:21 am

USTropics wrote:Just for kicks, NAVGEM parks this in the NW Caribbean and has this at 180 hours:

Image


Could this be a new storm in Gulf? JB emailed about it this am.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7617 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 08, 2016 9:42 am

WPBWeather wrote:
USTropics wrote:Just for kicks, NAVGEM parks this in the NW Caribbean and has this at 180 hours:

Image


Could this be a new storm in Gulf? JB emailed about it this am.
he said eithr matthew energy or another developing low...gatorcane posted a model map is the long rang thread in talkin tropics
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7618 Postby NWFL56 » Sat Oct 08, 2016 1:50 pm

WPBWeather wrote:
USTropics wrote:Just for kicks, NAVGEM parks this in the NW Caribbean and has this at 180 hours:

Image


Could this be a new storm in Gulf? JB emailed about it this am.

I am wondering about that Gulf mess too.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7619 Postby SouthernBreeze » Sat Oct 08, 2016 2:08 pm

Mathew's GFS loop showing storm repeat in about 15 days :roll:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7620 Postby stormreader » Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:01 pm

USTropics wrote:Just for kicks, NAVGEM parks this in the NW Caribbean and has this at 180 hours:

Image

Except I'm not laughing. Mathew was identified in its "pouch stage" while over Africa as a potentially dangerous system. And it was. It's been my experience that certain storms have within in them a certain seed or resilience which makes their deaths while over tropical waters very problematic. So models take Mathew back down into the tropics with uncertain steering currents. Not laughing.
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