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stormreader wrote:USTropics wrote:Just for kicks, NAVGEM parks this in the NW Caribbean and has this at 180 hours:
Except I'm not laughing. Mathew was identified in its "pouch stage" while over Africa as a potentially dangerous system. And it was. It's been my experience that certain storms have within in them a certain seed or resilience which makes their deaths while over tropical waters very problematic. So models take Mathew back down into the tropics with uncertain steering currents. Not laughing.
Considering all models perform poorly after 120 hours, and one of the worst performing models was the only operational run showing this solution, the chance of that run verifying was near 0%. The latest NAVGEM run no longer shows this. The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET (the three most reliable models) show the remnants of Matthew being absorbed in 48-72 hours by a short wave trough passing towards the NATL.
one wolf wrote:Okay so we see all this banter of strengthening trough, memories of Floyd, and even some newbie "guaranteeing" OBX impact. And yet NHC sticks with their guns in the 5am forecast. In Carteret County, we wring our hands but don't know what to do... should we prepare for a full hurricane and floodwaters or not?
This turned out to be exactly like, If not worse than, Floyd and the storm tracked over the Outer Banks.
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