ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:31 pm

NHC designated our wave as an invest. This one is bound to cause trouble
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Re: Invest 97L Discussion

#2 Postby LJFire1467 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:37 pm

Where do you see it? I dont see it on nhc.noaa.gov
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Re: Invest 97L Discussion

#3 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:40 pm

Um 899mb...nearing Cuba yea right.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#4 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:42 pm

This storm...could be one that we remember for a long time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#5 Postby psyclone » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:44 pm

I expect this to be "the storm" of 2016.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#6 Postby rickybobby » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:44 pm

We have potentially 8 days if it hits the us. Im saying this will be over 200 pages.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#7 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:45 pm

If conditions are as favorable as foretasted we could be talking about this for years and possibly decades to come.
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Re: Invest 97L Discussion

#8 Postby LJFire1467 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:45 pm

SFLcane wrote:Um 899mb...nearing Cuba yea right.

Which model? Im seeing 973 on gfs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#9 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:49 pm

consolidation at about 9N 35W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#10 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:57 pm

About time...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#11 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:58 pm

Atlanta in the game at 324. GFS Buckles what appears to be zonal flow (haven't looked at the upper charts) and hooks a NW moving storm NE toward Panama City and has the remaining TS very far north along AL/GA border in 12 hours. This run, while still sketchy, is better than 18z in my opinion.
Last edited by Steve on Sun Sep 25, 2016 12:10 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#12 Postby psyclone » Sun Sep 25, 2016 12:01 am

Ivan 04 continues to creep into my mind. low Caribbean track, hammers Jamaica, the Caymans, Western Cuba on up to the Florida panhandle. that would certainly fit climo too. it's been awhile since we've had a good scare but if this engine can go..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#13 Postby MetroMike » Sun Sep 25, 2016 12:08 am

If it is anywhere near Aruba entrainment of dry air could slow development as the models don't see land. Correct?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#14 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 25, 2016 12:26 am

MetroMike wrote:If it is anywhere near Aruba entrainment of dry air could slow development as the models don't see land. Correct?


Models see the land and the mountains just fine
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#15 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 12:36 am

So models see a potential monster in the making. This could be a crazy two weeks... I'm sure the forum will have a volatile emotional curve after any change in the storm's behavior.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#16 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 25, 2016 12:42 am

2:00AM update, up to 20/80%:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located east-northeast of Bermuda, and has issued the
last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Lisa, located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has developed in association with
a tropical wave and a low pressure system located several hundred
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean at 15 to 20 mph for the next several days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development as the system, and a tropical depression could form
while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Forecaster Stewart


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#17 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:43 am

galaxy401 wrote:So models see a potential monster in the making. This could be a crazy two weeks... I'm sure the forum will have a volatile emotional curve after any change in the storm's behavior.


its the inconsistency in modeling that causes the volatile emotional curve :roll:

IF this develops as modeled in a few days then hopefully we get better consistency then we have seen this year
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#18 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:56 am

Interesting to see some models bend this ever so slightly WSW into S.America, that must be a very rare track, but given how far south this system is that certainly seems to be an interesting solution.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#19 Postby GCANE » Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:03 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#20 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:07 am

Some nice convection there GCANE, still got a few days though before anything should really pop.
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