ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Hey all! This is my first post here! I've been reading here as a guest since Hermine, but 97L has convinced me to post some as well.

I actually have a question regarding future conditions for 97L: What's going to cause all this shear in the Caribbean to clear out?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

It clearly doesn't seem to be an issue on any of the models, per their rapid development, but I can't help but wonder what may cause such a drastic switch over the next few days.

Welcome aboard, ThetaE!

As to your question about the shear, I'll leave that to those more knowledgeable about it than me to answer.

The top of the troposphere (aka tropopause) is forecast to increase in altitude the same time as 97L enter the Carib.
GFS shows this as 355K PV.
You can find it here:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=560
The darker the blue, the higher the tropopause and the calmer the UL winds.
A higher tropopause also causes the total vort column to expand vertically and stack which allows it to spin up (spinning skater pulling in arms analogy).

[toad strangler]

I like hurricane Emily from 1987 as an analog in terms of track.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Emily_1987_track.png

Emily was moving NW right from the get go.

[NDG]

Hey all! This is my first post here! I've been reading here as a guest since Hermine, but 97L has convinced me to post some as well.

I actually have a question regarding future conditions for 97L: What's going to cause all this shear in the Caribbean to clear out?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

It clearly doesn't seem to be an issue on any of the models, per their rapid development, but I can't help but wonder what may cause such a drastic switch over the next few days.

Rising heights over the central Atlantic Basin along with a trough over the eastern US over the next 3-7 days will cause upper level ridging to build over the Caribbean, right on top of 97L.
Over the last few years I have noticed that whenever there is a heat ridge over the South East and or Eastern US upper level winds are not favorable over the Caribbean but as soon as the heat ridge moves away environment becomes better over the Caribbean so indeed this is what the models show to happen.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I like hurricane Emily from 1987 as an analog in terms of track.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Emily_1987_track.png

Emily was moving NW right from the get go.

It is close enough to the track I believe it takes out of the Caribbean. Surprisingly it is not common for systems to recurve out of the Caribbean at such low latitudes as the ECMWF shows.

[Blown Away]

http://i.imgur.com/p4A86WW.png

8am

2am

NHC is hone in on the southerly track which does not bode well for points W of 75W IMO... E Caribbean under the gun now... Yikes

[ThetaE]

Hey all! This is my first post here! I've been reading here as a guest since Hermine, but 97L has convinced me to post some as well.

I actually have a question regarding future conditions for 97L: What's going to cause all this shear in the Caribbean to clear out?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

It clearly doesn't seem to be an issue on any of the models, per their rapid development, but I can't help but wonder what may cause such a drastic switch over the next few days.

Welcome aboard, ThetaE!

As to your question about the shear, I'll leave that to those more knowledgeable about it than me to answer.

The top of the troposphere (aka tropopause) is forecast to increase in altitude the same time as 97L enter the Carib.
GFS shows this as 355K PV.
You can find it here:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=560
The darker the blue, the higher the tropopause and the calmer the UL winds.
A higher tropopause also causes the total vort column to expand vertically and stack which allows it to spin up (spinning skater pulling in arms analogy).

Thanks for the answers! It seems to me, then, that 97L will have quite a few favorable conditions once it enters the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Depending on how all evolves in terms of track and strengh this thread can reach a new record of posts and views.

[Blown Away]

Depending on how all evolves in terms of track and strengh this thread can reach a new record of posts and views.

Somebody predicted that a few days ago...

[Blown Away]

TAFB has 97L moving over Grenada after 72 hours as a Low and no "Possible Tropical Cyclone" tag...

[robbielyn]

Well maybe this will run into Ca or mexico and not even head into gulf. wouldn't that be a big relief for the US?

[Hurricaneman]

I noticed that a lot of people are looking at the convection at 40W when the vorticity is back at 37W and until those 2 couple this isn't doing much

[KWT]

Indeed BA, looks like they are taking the more conservative route ad thus further south. Alot of the more northerly models in the E.Cairbbean get this thing going before the islands around 50-55W which looks too quick.

As for a record thread, Ike had a combined 1000+ thread (combined main,model and recon) so that gives you a ball park figure that this thread will need to go to combined with the other threads. No thread on its own has gone to a 1000 pages...unless this pulls an Ivan I'm not sure this one will either!

[RL3AO]

Our CCKW is moving along. We should see an overall increase in convection in the day or two following it's passage.

[cycloneye]

Comming from him then big things will happen down the road.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 33m33 minutes ago
Invest #97L already has some character well E of the Windward Islands- looks like an interesting week! Lots of possibilities with this one

[wxman57]

I see pretty good rotation near 8N/39W this morning (red crosshairs in the image below). No convection there, but good rotation (on TPW loop, too). It still looks like it will be fighting dry air until it moves into the Caribbean, though, so I am somewhat doubtful it will become a tropical storm east of the Caribbean, certainly doubtful of a strong storm or hurricane east of the islands.

Looks like a fair chance it will threaten the ABC islands as a hurricane, which is rare. I'm not so sure it will ever enter the Gulf of Mexico, though. It may well be drawn northward toward the Bahamas. Threat to the central Gulf coast & NW Gulf is looking less possible. Much will depend on where it develops.

[GCANE]

Definitely a small swirl at 7.5N 38.5N

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[TheStormExpert]

I see pretty good rotation near 8N/39W this morning (red crosshairs in the image below). No convection there, but good rotation (on TPW loop, too). It still looks like it will be fighting dry air until it moves into the Caribbean, though, so I am somewhat doubtful it will become a tropical storm east of the Caribbean, certainly doubtful of a strong storm or hurricane east of the islands.

Looks like a fair chance it will threaten the ABC islands as a hurricane, which is rare. I'm not so sure it will ever enter the Gulf of Mexico, though. It may well be drawn northward toward the Bahamas. Threat to the central Gulf coast & NW Gulf is looking less possible. Much will depend on where it develops.

http://i67.tinypic.com/30m6bk0.jpg

I know it's still very early in the game but what's your current thoughts on potential threat for S. FL/SE FL?

[gatorcane]

Saved loop. As Wxman57 pointed out, good rotation but not a lot going on around the "center" yet.

[wxman57]

I see pretty good rotation near 8N/39W this morning (red crosshairs in the image below). No convection there, but good rotation (on TPW loop, too). It still looks like it will be fighting dry air until it moves into the Caribbean, though, so I am somewhat doubtful it will become a tropical storm east of the Caribbean, certainly doubtful of a strong storm or hurricane east of the islands.

Looks like a fair chance it will threaten the ABC islands as a hurricane, which is rare. I'm not so sure it will ever enter the Gulf of Mexico, though. It may well be drawn northward toward the Bahamas. Threat to the central Gulf coast & NW Gulf is looking less possible. Much will depend on where it develops.

http://i67.tinypic.com/30m6bk0.jpg

I know it's still very early in the game but what's your current thoughts on potential threat for S. FL/SE FL?

Definitely could be a Florida threat. Florida and east through the Bahamas may be the most likely track.

[Nimbus]

Seems as though this time of year systems move west a little slower in the Caribbean not as slow as Mitch but not as likely to go sailing across Mexico into the Pacific. Hopefully we see a digging trough or something later.