ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10861 Postby nascarfan999 » Sun Oct 09, 2016 4:47 pm

terstorm1012 wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:
Alyono wrote:still cannot find any word about what happened where this hit Haiti. Everything is from the northern shore of Tiburon or from areas out of the eyewall

I hope the 4 dreaded words do not have to be used


What communities are at the area of landfall?


Les Anglais is where the eye came ashore. I am positive I saw some aerial photos from the US Coast Guard that showed it completely flattened. Haiti requested our assistance.

Tiburon isn't densely populated but there are lots of isolated little communities in the mountains.


The below article lists several dozen of the dead as coming from Les Anglais, so somehow info has made it out of there. However, the second quote says no contact has been made, but how else would they know several dozen died. Looks like the article does give info from other towns along the southern coast, although maybe not ones that caught the eye.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-matthew-haiti-idUSKCN12613S

""Several dozen" were killed in the coastal town of Les Anglais in Sud Department, said Louis Paul Raphael, the central government's representative in the region. Inland in nearby Chantal, the toll rose to 90 late in the evening, the town's mayor said."

"Les Anglais was the first to be hit by Matthew and has since been out of contact. The mayor told Reuters just before the storm hit that people were fleeing their houses in panic as the sea surged into town."
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10862 Postby artist » Sun Oct 09, 2016 4:58 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10863 Postby Vdogg » Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:42 pm

Very good post from a local met on forecast error, including an apology. This has caused quite an uproar in our community. Some people lost everything they had and they're lashing out. I feel this is a good explanation.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 2365187416

"Where the forecast failed…

Some of you are angry, upset, or disappointed. I’ve seen the messages and comments, and I totally understand. And I am angry, upset, and disappointed that we didn’t do a better job regarding Matthew’s impacts here in Hampton Roads.

Forecasting tropical cyclones is not easy. A small shift, wobble, or change in a storm’s path, even by 50 miles, can mean the difference between 40 mph winds and 80 mph winds. And Matthew was one of the more difficult storms to forecast. From the beginning, Matthew never did what it was supposed to do. Remember that sudden strengthening in the Caribbean, when it went from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours? Or the shift in the track from Jamaica to Haiti? Or that Matthew was supposed to miss, then hit the Florida coast? It’s not an exact science, and it won’t be for a long time to come.

That brings us to uncertainty. Uncertainty in the track and uncertainty in the effects. We, as meteorologists, need to do a better job of expressing uncertainty to you, the public. Often times, we are met with criticism for being wishy-washy or vague when we try to express the parts of the forecast we are uncertain about. In the past few years, the meteorological team at 13News Now has moved away from showing the “center line” of a tropical forecast track within the “cone of uncertainty” for that very reason: it’s not certain. The storm could go anywhere in the cone, and even, on some occasions, outside the cone. In fact, the current day-five margin of error in a tropical cyclone’s position is still over 230 miles. And intensity forecasts are often off by quite a bit as well. Why? Because the atmosphere is too complex, too dynamic to be pinned down by a bunch of mathematical equations. We are getting better, our computer models are getting better, but we are not perfect.

So what happened? The hook. There was growing confidence by mid-week that the storm would move up the coast, and an approaching cold front/trough would cause the storm to turn east. There was uncertainty as to when exactly that would happen, but nearly all the models called for it well south of Cape Hatteras. And, that’s pretty much what happened. Except for one thing…instead of simply deflecting Matthew away from the area, Matthew began to be influenced by the front in ways nearly all the models failed to see until it was almost happening. Matthew was transitioning from a tropical cyclone into a nor’easter – and those are two completely different storms.

Tropical cyclones tend to be compact storms in many ways, with their strongest winds near the center, the eye. When Matthew was moving up the east coast of Florida, the eye remained a few dozen miles off the shoreline. This is why many areas of Florida saw winds and wind gusts less than ours. Once Matthew made it to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, we saw the greater impact because the storm came ashore. Nor’easters, however, tend to have large, expansive wind fields. As Matthew began that transition from a tropical cyclone to a nor’easter, its wind field began to expand, spreading north and west. The approaching cold front was then no longer working to push a tropical cyclone out to sea, but was working to enhance a transitioning nor’easter, focusing the band of heavy rain over Southeast Virginia into central North Carolina, and pulling the storm northeast instead of deflecting it into the forecasted hook.

Yes, this was something we should have seen as a possible scenario earlier. There were small signs Friday night that this scenario might happen. In response to those signs, we started increasing some of the rainfall and wind forecasts. There was quite a bit of discussion behind-the-scenes, as the new models came in, that the storm might be starting to change. Was this an aberration in the models? Or were they picking up on something more? And that was the dilemma – when confronted with conflicting information – is the new data in error, or is it showing us something new, something unexpected?

At one point Friday we showed a bar graph that had various rainfall forecasts from four different computer models. Some called for 8, 9, or 10 inches of rain, while others called for 2, 3 or 4 inches. As had been the case with Matthew throughout the storm’s lifespan, we were left with two very different solutions. The time was drawing close and we needed to make the call. The call was made to increase our rainfall and wind forecasts from where they had been on Thursday and Friday morning. Still, it was not enough. To use a sports analogy, we punted. And we didn’t do the best job expressing the uncertainty I mentioned early on. We had caveats to our forecasts, stated verbally, saying if the storm got closer than expected, we would see worse conditions. Unfortunately, those sorts of caveats can’t always be covered in 140 characters on social media.

The one concern we did address, quite extensively in fact, was the saturated ground, and how that would impact the trees and power outages. After coming off of the second wettest September on record, we were worried how the tress, with their canopies full of leaves and their roots in saturated soil, would react to the gusty winds. It was a fine line. Had this storm and these winds come after a dry spell, we wouldn’t see the issues we are seeing now. We learned from Isabel, back in 2003, what a saturated soil can do to trees, particularly pines, when their roots can’t keep hold. While it doesn’t appear to be as widespread as Isabel, we are seeing power outages due to wind-felled trees. And those effects will be felt for several more days.

After each storm, we take a look back at the data and the forecasts and see what we did right, what we did wrong, and where we can improve. We will do that in the coming days and weeks. We will learn from our mistakes.

You trust us and welcome us into your homes each day, expecting us to give you the best and most accurate forecast. Most of the time, we deliver on those expectations. I feel like we failed to deliver on those expectations, and that’s why I am angry, upset, and disappointed today."
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#10864 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:43 pm

galaxy401 wrote:So models see a potential monster in the making. This could be a crazy two weeks... I'm sure the forum will have a volatile emotional curve after any change in the storm's behavior.


Like others did before, I'm quoting my post in the first page since this is exactly what happened with this storm. Glad it's done but the damage was bad especially in Haiti and NC. Exactly two weeks as well and the forum certainly spiked with it either shifting closer or farther than Florida. Still wonder about the impact area of Haiti and thanks everyone for their inputs. Hope the users in the impact areas will recover particularity the ones in the flooded areas...
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10865 Postby jasons » Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:43 pm

Our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone affected by Matthew. I would like to see more media coverage on Haiti to raise awareness and help with humanitarian efforts.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10866 Postby SootyTern » Sun Oct 09, 2016 6:28 pm

jasons wrote:Our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone affected by Matthew. I would like to see more media coverage on Haiti to raise awareness and help with humanitarian efforts.


Is it OK to post this here? This group, Food for the Poor, has pre-existing infrastructure in Haiti and is a good place to send donations:

http://www.foodforthepoor.org/?_ga=1.72 ... 1476055435
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10867 Postby Happy Pelican » Sun Oct 09, 2016 7:07 pm

OuterBanker wrote:FYI, 12 in water in my house. Entire downstairs ruined. Septic so no toilets. Never seen it this bad in 42 yrs. We are in bad shape here.


Damn. I'm so sorry to read this. I have a Been Verified Account if you want to run a background on and contractors you get an estimate from. Storm chasing contractors are known as the "Disaster after the Disaster" along the Jersey Shore since Sandy. Lifted my house a year ago, finally able to move back in the end of May but I still don't have a Certificate of Occupancy because of price gauging and the little work we have left, no one will talk because there isn't enough $$ to be made. Unreal.

Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10868 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Oct 09, 2016 7:10 pm

little coming out Bahama after their hard hit i been looking at facebook for guy i know from their put look like their no cell or internet in Bahama yet
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10869 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 09, 2016 7:50 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10870 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:09 pm

Alyono wrote:http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-storm-matthew-haiti-idUKKCN12A00U

1,000 dead in Haiti now


I wouldn't be surprised to see another zero go up in the final death toll.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10871 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:34 pm

And so ends the journey of Matthew. What a ride it has been.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10872 Postby Nimbus » Sun Oct 09, 2016 10:39 pm

Most of the damage in the US was caused by the storm surge flooding and undercutting the sand dunes along the coastal areas.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10873 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 09, 2016 10:45 pm



Jeremie is on the north coast. Had downslope flow; thus, mudslides were unlikely
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10874 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Oct 09, 2016 11:58 pm

Alyono wrote:still cannot find any word about what happened where this hit Haiti. Everything is from the northern shore of Tiburon or from areas out of the eyewall

I hope the 4 dreaded words do not have to be used


What are the 4 dreaded words?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10875 Postby BZSTORM » Mon Oct 10, 2016 12:10 am

floridasun78 wrote:little coming out Bahama after their hard hit i been looking at facebook for guy i know from their put look like their no cell or internet in Bahama yet


I also found no Bahama news source or network page with updates but did find this http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... hamas.html
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10876 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 10, 2016 12:20 am

wxmann_91 wrote:
Alyono wrote:still cannot find any word about what happened where this hit Haiti. Everything is from the northern shore of Tiburon or from areas out of the eyewall

I hope the 4 dreaded words do not have to be used


What are the 4 dreaded words?


"there are no survivors" Used after 1970 Bhola cyclone. I DOUBT that will be the case, but I'd like to hear something in the coming days from where landfall occurred. My worry is most deaths so far have been wind. Nothing from the mudslide areas
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10877 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 10, 2016 12:23 am

Major cudos deserved for Nassau. They seem to have weathered this hurricane relatively well. Seems like they built similar to Grand Cayman.

Why cannot all areas threatened by hurricanes use Grand Cayman's code as the minimum standard. Ideally, all areas threatened by hurricanes would be built to Taiwan's code, which results in cat 4s and 5s being inconveniences but not major disasters
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10878 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 1:17 am

Alyono wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:
Alyono wrote:still cannot find any word about what happened where this hit Haiti. Everything is from the northern shore of Tiburon or from areas out of the eyewall

I hope the 4 dreaded words do not have to be used


What are the 4 dreaded words?


"there are no survivors" Used after 1970 Bhola cyclone. I DOUBT that will be the case, but I'd like to hear something in the coming days from where landfall occurred. My worry is most deaths so far have been wind. Nothing from the mudslide areas


Yeah, that would be terrible. Most of the damage does seem to be wind thus far, which is encouraging in that wind tends to kill less than water. Usually by this time if some village was devoured by a mudslide, we'd hear about it already.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10879 Postby Kazmit » Mon Oct 10, 2016 4:52 am

Peak intensity.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10880 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 10, 2016 6:57 am

Nate-Gillson wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
Agreed.


It''s pretty much certain that we won't be seeing Matthew in 2022. :Can:


With what it did to western Haiti, extreme eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, east coast of Florida and with the record flooding in GA/SC/NC, it's a guarantee that Matthew will be retired.

As incredible as it may seem, the deaths and destruction in Haiti may not factor in to any decision to retire the name Matthew. In 1994, Tropical Storm Gordon resulted in 1,122 deaths (possibly more), the destruction of 3,500 houses and the damage of 10,800 others. Yet, the name Gordon continues to be reused. From my understanding, it's up to the government of the affected country to request that the name of a particular storm be retired.
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