ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10901 Postby Ken711 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 12:20 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Sitting in a laundromat washing tennis shoes, hats, things that I don't want to put in my washer. 12 in water in my house and rental. Estimate in excess of 100k in damages. First time I've had to respond. Ironically the Thursday which brought Matthew over the OBX that NHC had prior was actually much more accurate than the so called hook away. Everyone from Eastern NC to Virginia breathed a sigh of relief. And let their guard down. I've lived here for 42 years and my present home for 34 yrs and never thought that our home would flood. Well, I stepped out of bed at 3am into a foot of water. My neighbor didn't have flood insurance and is now suffering the consequences. Federal Flood agents have already inspected our properties. Already learned a tip to pass on. Most of the outer Banks is on septic systems, not central sewage. So water is contaminated with sewage. Flood insurance pays more if contaminated. Get a Mason jar of your flood water as sample for the government. Find receipts for all loses and document them. I guess the final word is that it really didn't matter which projection was more correct. The outcome would remain the same. Flooding from Matthew in eastern NC will be historic.


Sorry to hear about your home, but good tip on the contaminated water.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10902 Postby abajan » Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:23 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Sitting in a laundromat washing tennis shoes, hats, things that I don't want to put in my washer. 12 in water in my house and rental. Estimate in excess of 100k in damages. First time I've had to respond. Ironically the Thursday which brought Matthew over the OBX that NHC had prior was actually much more accurate than the so called hook away. Everyone from Eastern NC to Virginia breathed a sigh of relief. And let their guard down. I've lived here for 42 years and my present home for 34 yrs and never thought that our home would flood. Well, I stepped out of bed at 3am into a foot of water. My neighbor didn't have flood insurance and is now suffering the consequences. Federal Flood agents have already inspected our properties. Already learned a tip to pass on. Most of the outer Banks is on septic systems, not central sewage. So water is contaminated with sewage. Flood insurance pays more if contaminated. Get a Mason jar of your flood water as sample for the government. Find receipts for all loses and document them. I guess the final word is that it really didn't matter which projection was more correct. The outcome would remain the same. Flooding from Matthew in eastern NC will be historic.

That's a terribly unfortunate situation you're in. It's hard to imagine how shocking and disheartening it must have been to discover all that water around your bed, and at that hour. It would've been bad enough if it were clean water, but the sewage adds an awful dimension to your dilemma. I suppose it's some consolation knowing that many others in your area would have suffered the same fate, but hopefully assistance for a return to some measure of normalcy isn't too far off.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10903 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:29 pm

The United States death toll from Matthew has now reached 44.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10904 Postby Ken711 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 7:14 pm

Does the NHC keep all their forecasted tracks associated with each of their advisories on Matthew? Is there a link someone can direct me to. Thanks
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10905 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 14, 2016 7:31 pm

Ken711 wrote:Does the NHC keep all their forecasted tracks associated with each of their advisories on Matthew? Is there a link someone can direct me to. Thanks


Yep, in the graphics archive for each storm.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/

Drill down to Matthew then select graphics archive.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/MATTHEW_graphics.shtml
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10906 Postby Ken711 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 7:57 pm

tolakram wrote:
Ken711 wrote:Does the NHC keep all their forecasted tracks associated with each of their advisories on Matthew? Is there a link someone can direct me to. Thanks


Yep, in the graphics archive for each storm.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/

Drill down to Matthew then select graphics archive.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/MATTHEW_graphics.shtml


Thanks!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10907 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 16, 2016 4:36 pm

Matthew formed during MJO phase 5 in September. Phase 5 had been one of the quietest Sept phases since 1995 (although Humberto of Sep. of 2007 also formed during phase 5). So, you never know as MJO doesn't say yes or no. Rather, it is one decent tool of several to give one an idea of genesis chances.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10908 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:46 am

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10909 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:56 pm

I think Matthew's Haiti landfall will receive a bump up to 130-135 kt. Using an outermost closed isobar of 1009 mb and the 6 kt forward speed, 120 nm average gale radius, and latitude of 16.9*N from NHC Forecast Advisory 24 at 0300Z October 4 with the 934 mb measured by recon, the Knaff-Zehr-Courtney Wind/Pressure Relationship (KZC) outputs a maximum sustained wind velocity of 127 kt, which is in good agreement with the 127 kt SFMR and 142 kt flight-level readings from Recon Mission 18.

Objective measurements such as ADT and SATCON continued to climb on the 4th, leveling off generally between 130-135 kt before landfall. The last VDM prior to landfall at 0439Z reported an eyewall that was still open to the S, but microwave data from before the landfall around 1100Z (pictured below) showed an eyewall that was closed and stalwart, supporting an intensification trend up until landfall. The Dvorak Technique (T6.5) remained a little lower than the rest of objective guidance, but this is generally consistent with previous fixes since October 1.

Image

Image

Using the same 1009 mb outermost closed isobar, and 18*N latitude just prior to landfall, and the forward speed of 8 kt and average gale radius of 135 nm from NHC Forecast Advisory 25 at 0900Z October 4, KZC outputs 931 mb for 130 kt and 926 mb for 135 kt. Erring on the conservative side, I'd put the landfall intensity at 130 kt/931 mb. 135 kt could be justified though, considering a CIMSS AMSU estimate of 136 kt at 1049Z October 4. CIMSS AMSU (along with ADT) did commendably during the initial/overall intensity peak on October 1, so it is worth noting.

(This post is shared from the 2016 Tropical Cyclone Reports thread)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#10910 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:20 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Originally posted October 9, 2016 but I have updated it based on all our findings (and brought it to the end of the BT). We'll see how this compares to the NHC track. I didn't change the peak intensity, but increased the Haiti landfall (to 135 kt/930 mb) and decreased the intensity during a lot of the time from Cuba to South Carolina. I didn't bother with a pre-TC track, but I did extend the post-tropical stage as I don't believe a new low took over on October 10 (per the NHC) and instead believe Matthew was a continuous entity in that time until it dissipated around 1800Z October 11.

AL142016, MATTHEW, 52,
20160928, 1200, , TS, 13.7N, 58.6W, 50, 1006,
20160928, 1800, , TS, 13.8N, 61.0W, 50, 1004,
20160929, 0000, , TS, 13.9N, 62.9W, 55, 1003,
20160929, 0600, , TS, 14.0N, 64.4W, 60, 1000,
20160929, 1200, , HU, 14.1N, 65.6W, 65, 996,
20160929, 1800, , HU, 14.1N, 67.0W, 70, 992,
20160930, 0000, , HU, 14.2N, 68.2W, 75, 987,
20160930, 0600, , HU, 14.1N, 69.3W, 90, 977,
20160930, 1200, , HU, 13.7N, 70.4W, 100, 970,
20160930, 1800, , HU, 13.5N, 71.3W, 115, 958,
20161001, 0000, , HU, 13.4N, 71.9W, 140, 944, Maximum wind
20161001, 0600, , HU, 13.3N, 72.7W, 135, 941,
20161001, 1200, , HU, 13.3N, 73.1W, 120, 945,
20161001, 1800, , HU, 13.1N, 73.4W, 125, 942,
20161002, 0000, , HU, 13.2N, 73.4W, 130, 940,
20161002, 0600, , HU, 13.6N, 73.9W, 125, 943,
20161002, 1200, , HU, 14.1N, 74.4W, 115, 946,
20161002, 1800, , HU, 14.3N, 74.7W, 115, 944,
20161003, 0000, , HU, 14.5N, 75.0W, 120, 942,
20161003, 0600, , HU, 14.9N, 75.0W, 120, 941,
20161003, 1200, , HU, 15.4N, 74.9W, 125, 940,
20161003, 1800, , HU, 15.9N, 74.8W, 125, 938,
20161004, 0000, , HU, 16.7N, 74.6W, 130, 935,
20161004, 0600, , HU, 17.3N, 74.4W, 135, 932,
20161004, 1115, L, HU, 18.3N, 74.2W, 135, 930, Landfall, Les Anglais, Haiti and minimum pressure
20161004, 1200, , HU, 18.4N, 74.2W, 125, 937,
20161004, 1800, , HU, 19.3N, 74.3W, 120, 947,
20161005, 0000, , HU, 20.0N, 74.4W, 115, 950,
20161005, 0045, L, HU, 20.1N, 74.4W, 115, 951, Landfall, Rio Seco in Guantanamo Province, Cuba
20161005, 0600, , HU, 20.7N, 74.4W, 110, 960,
20161005, 1200, , HU, 21.4N, 74.8W, 105, 963,
20161005, 1800, , HU, 22.2N, 75.4W, 100, 962,
20161006, 0000, , HU, 23.1N, 76.0W, 95, 960,
20161006, 0600, , HU, 23.8N, 76.6W, 105, 952,
20161006, 1200, , HU, 24.6N, 77.4W, 125, 937,
20161006, 1800, , HU, 25.6N, 78.2W, 115, 936,
20161007, 0000, L, HU, 26.6N, 78.9W, 105, 936, Landfall, between West End and Freeport on Grand Bahama
20161007, 0600, , HU, 27.7N, 79.7W, 100, 939,
20161007, 1000, C, HU, 28.5N, 80.2W, 100, 942, Closest point of approach to Cape Canaveral FL (E 15 nautical miles)
20161007, 1200, , HU, 28.8N, 80.3W, 100, 943,
20161007, 1800, , HU, 29.7N, 80.8W, 95, 946,
20161008, 0000, , HU, 30.6N, 80.7W, 90, 948,
20161008, 0600, , HU, 31.6N, 80.7W, 80, 954,
20161008, 1200, , HU, 32.4N, 80.0W, 70, 961,
20161008, 1515, L, HU, 33.0N, 79.4W, 65, 965, Landfall, Lighthouse Island SC (S of Awendaw)
20161008, 1800, , HU, 33.6N, 78.9W, 65, 969,
20161008, 2130, L, HU, 33.9N, 78.1W, 65, 974, Landfall, Oak Island NC
20161009, 0000, , HU, 34.0N, 77.3W, 70, 977,
20161009, 0600, , LO, 34.9N, 75.7W, 70, 979,
20161009, 1200, , LO, 35.2N, 74.3W, 70, 982,
20161009, 1800, , EX, 35.4N, 72.8W, 70, 983,
20161010, 0000, , EX, 36.0N, 70.9W, 65, 985,
20161010, 0600, , EX, 37.8N, 68.7W, 65, 990,
20161010, 1200, , EX, 41.0N, 66.0W, 60, 992,
20161010, 1800, , EX, 43.5N, 62.5W, 60, 989,
20161011, 0000, , EX, 44.9N, 60.3W, 55, 993,
20161011, 0600, , EX, 45.3N, 58.0W, 50, 995,
20161011, 1200, , EX, 45.9N, 55.6W, 50, 997,
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