ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#21 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:08 am

This very well may be one for the ages. I don't like what the models have kept showing. Despite having issues with them the last couple of seasons, remember that even a broken clock is right twice a day...

In other words, this could be the one they "get right" far in advance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#22 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:21 am

Indeed Brunota, the models are setting up for a strong hurricane in the E/C Caribbean. Of course there is some uncertainty with whether it gets as far as the USA but somewhere in the Caribbean is going to get hit hard, especially if it does make it towards the W/NW Caribbean where there is super high heat content.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#23 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:25 am

Notice how the outlook no longer states that it's expected to move rapidly westward at 20 to 25 mph, but westward to west-northwestward at a slower 15 to 20 mph.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#24 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:56 am

would not be surprised to see up to 50 ACE units from this one alone
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#25 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 25, 2016 6:02 am

abajan wrote:Notice how the outlook no longer states that it's expected to move rapidly westward at 20 to 25 mph, but westward to west-northwestward at a slower 15 to 20 mph.

Yep, could allow 97l to develop before the islands and turn north farther east than models show...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#26 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 25, 2016 6:04 am

Alyono wrote:would not be surprised to see up to 50 ACE units from this one alone


Providing it doesn't impale itself into SA or take the quick way out like ECM/CMC then I think you may well be right. The system is progged to slow right down in the Caribbean and a slow moving 3/4/5 hurricane is going to ramp up the ACE rapidly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#27 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 25, 2016 6:15 am

This already looks like its on its way, just need convection on the east side

also looking at the convective mass this could be a rather large hurricane

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#28 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 6:18 am

Hurricaneman wrote:This already looks like its on its way, just need convection on the east side

also looking at the convective mass this could be a rather large hurricane

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A rather large hurricane wouldn't be good for whoever it hit! Large windfield means potentially a higher surge!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#29 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 25, 2016 6:20 am

brunota2003 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:This already looks like its on its way, just need convection on the east side

also looking at the convective mass this could be a rather large hurricane

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A rather large hurricane wouldn't be good for whoever it hit! Large windfield means potentially a higher surge!


unfortunately that would be true and I do hope it just smashes into South America

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#30 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 25, 2016 6:34 am

This is going to have to gain some latitude, or it'll crash into South America.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#31 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 25, 2016 6:47 am

Image

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southernmost
Cabo Verde Islands is moving westward at around 20 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands, the
southern Caribbean Sea, and the northern coast of South America
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#32 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 25, 2016 6:51 am

Kazmit_ wrote:This is going to have to gain some latitude, or it'll crash into South America.

I think this is a very real possibility, judging by its movement so far. I hope those in Trinidad & Tobago are paying attention.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#33 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 25, 2016 6:54 am

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
739 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC. ...

A tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends its axis from
14N34W to a 1011 mb surface low centered near 07N35W, moving west
near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a 700
mb trough noted in model guidance and is embedded within a surge
of moisture as seen in TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection
has developed in the vicinity of these features extending from
06N-14N between 35W-42W. ...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#34 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sun Sep 25, 2016 7:00 am

I'm honestly surprised there's not much discussion on the current physical situation of 97L considering a lot of people are over a panic with the model runs so far out. Figuring out when this storm fully develops and how strong it gets will be key in what unfolds in the future.

The storm does look pretty good so far and I do agree with the 80% of development in the next 5 days. Maybe even sooner than that. Tons of possibilities here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#35 Postby ThetaE » Sun Sep 25, 2016 7:13 am

Hey all! This is my first post here! I've been reading here as a guest since Hermine, but 97L has convinced me to post some as well.

I actually have a question regarding future conditions for 97L: What's going to cause all this shear in the Caribbean to clear out?
Image

It clearly doesn't seem to be an issue on any of the models, per their rapid development, but I can't help but wonder what may cause such a drastic switch over the next few days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#36 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 25, 2016 7:32 am

ThetaE wrote:Hey all! This is my first post here! I've been reading here as a guest since Hermine, but 97L has convinced me to post some as well.

I actually have a question regarding future conditions for 97L: What's going to cause all this shear in the Caribbean to clear out?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

It clearly doesn't seem to be an issue on any of the models, per their rapid development, but I can't help but wonder what may cause such a drastic switch over the next few days.

Welcome aboard, ThetaE! :sun:

As to your question about the shear, I'll leave that to those more knowledgeable about it than me to answer.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#37 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 25, 2016 7:39 am

At such a low latitude, I'm not expecting any quick intensification. However, it's probably worth noting that it's currently over 30 degrees Celsius waters and will be heading into even warmer water within a couple days' time:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#38 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 25, 2016 7:42 am

TheDreamTraveler wrote:I'm honestly surprised there's not much discussion on the current physical situation of 97L considering a lot of people are over a panic with the model runs so far out. ...

Most are probably still asleep (and dreaming about kangaroos, due to all the "pouch" craziness), as they were up into the wee hours of this morning. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#39 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2016 7:51 am

12z Best Track:

Location: 8.2°N 37.7°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#40 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Sep 25, 2016 7:55 am

I like hurricane Emily from 1987 as an analog in terms of track.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Emily_1987_track.png
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