ATL: MATTHEW - Recon Discussion

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ATL: MATTHEW - Recon Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2016 7:29 am

I have a feeling that there will be plenty of discussions about the upcomming missions for this system starting on September 27 in the afternoon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#2 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 25, 2016 7:31 am

I would think that they would also do upper air missions in a few days also to check out steering currents
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2016 7:38 am

:uarrow: Let's see if Sundays TCPOD includes Gonzo,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2016 10:25 am

Nothing yet Hurricaneman but I suspect on Mondays TCPOD,they will include some missions including Gonzo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#5 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 11:22 am

I think we need more weather balloons from the ENTIRE Atlantic basin and into the EPAC to solve this. Maybe send Gonzo into the Pacific to get more data as it flows eastward?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2016 1:07 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I think we need more weather balloons from the ENTIRE Atlantic basin and into the EPAC to solve this. Maybe send Gonzo into the Pacific to get more data as it flows eastward?


The pattern will be a complicated one down the road that will require plenty of upper air missions.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#7 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 1:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I think we need more weather balloons from the ENTIRE Atlantic basin and into the EPAC to solve this. Maybe send Gonzo into the Pacific to get more data as it flows eastward?


The pattern will be a complicated one down the road that will require plenty of upper air missions.


I believe the first key features are still either in the Pacific or in the western US right now. The first key is that upper-level low.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:17 am

No Gonzo yet for the next 2 days in Mondays TCPOD.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118357&p=2543210#p2543210
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:11 pm

Interesting tweet with the ? to Matthew.



https://twitter.com/53d_HHA/status/780430219811446784
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#10 Postby La Sirena » Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:23 am

It will be very interesting to see what they come up with this afternoon.....Any bets?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#11 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:27 am

What time is takeoff?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#12 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:33 am

I'm not a betting man, but I think they will find a strong wave with TS winds on the north side, and little if any W winds on the south, primarily because of the speed of motion of the system. There will be a heated debate back at HQ about whether to upgrade, especially since it is threatening the islands. Purists among the forecasters will insist on waiting to upgrade until a tighter circulation forms. The more pragmatic types will argue since it is already producing TS conditions on it's north side, and most guidance strengthens it within hours, that an upgrade now is warranted. There will be 2 or more forecasters that typically take opposing sides in these debates. They will role their eyes at each other, turn their backs and walk away. Ultimately, they will wait until later in the day when some poor boat gets blasted with 60 mph gusts. When it does get named, it will skip the TD phase all together. This is more of a prophesy than a forecast, based just on my gut feeling.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#13 Postby sma10 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:46 am

Wow. That was a ... complex ... prediction.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:53 am

AnnularCane wrote:What time is takeoff?


11 AM EDT.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#15 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:56 am

La Sirena wrote:It will be very interesting to see what they come up with this afternoon.....Any bets?


Not too much in terms of a well defined surface low.

Most likely weak multiple surface swirls.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#16 Postby La Sirena » Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:10 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:I'm not a betting man, but I think they will find a strong wave with TS winds on the north side, and little if any W winds on the south, primarily because of the speed of motion of the system. There will be a heated debate back at HQ about whether to upgrade, especially since it is threatening the islands. Purists among the forecasters will insist on waiting to upgrade until a tighter circulation forms. The more pragmatic types will argue since it is already producing TS conditions on it's north side, and most guidance strengthens it within hours, that an upgrade now is warranted. There will be 2 or more forecasters that typically take opposing sides in these debates. They will role their eyes at each other, turn their backs and walk away. Ultimately, they will wait until later in the day when some poor boat gets blasted with 60 mph gusts. When it does get named, it will skip the TD phase all together. This is more of a prophesy than a forecast, based just on my gut feeling.


Vivid and interesting prophecy! :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#17 Postby La Sirena » Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:11 am

GCANE wrote:
La Sirena wrote:It will be very interesting to see what they come up with this afternoon.....Any bets?


Not too much in terms of a well defined surface low.

Most likely weak multiple surface swirls.

Hmmmm. I'm going with a named storm by the end of the run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:31 am

No Gonzo yet in the Tuesday TCPOD.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:19 am

Ok folks,this is the thread to get opinions about the mission so go ahead.Plane is in the air flying torwards 97L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#20 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:22 am

About what time will they actually be inside 97L?


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