ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

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ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:43 am

Comming very soon.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories- First advisory is up.

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:03 am

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FRENCH ISLANDS OF
GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS, DOMINICA, AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA, BARBADOS, ST. VINCENT, AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS

INTERESTS IN BONAIRE...CURACAO...ARUBA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 60.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 60.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.6N 63.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.9N 66.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.9N 69.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.8N 71.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.5N 74.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N 75.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 60.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 60.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the French Islands of
Guadeloupe and Martinique.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, Dominica, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands

Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and elsewhere in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 60.7 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move
through the Windward Islands during the next couple of hours, and
move over the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday.

Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Matthew could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
primarily to the notheast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over
the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands witin
the next few hours and continue into this evening.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown










TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical wave passing
through the Windward Islands has acquired a closed circulation. The
aircraft found peak flight-level winds of 64 kt, and SFMR surface
winds of around 50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation.
As a result, advisories are being initiated on a 50-kt tropical
storm. The current lack of inner core structure suggests that
further strengthening should be limited today, but environmental
conditions consisting of warm water and low shear ahead of Matthew
favor intensification throughout the remainder of the forecast
period. The NHC intensity forecast is more conservative than the
statistical guidance, but follows the trends of the global models
in deepening the system.

Since the center has very recently formed, the initial motion
estimate is a highly uncertain 275/18 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic should steer Matthew westward across the
eastern Caribbean during the next few days, and the track guidance
is tightly clustered through 72 hours. After that time, the
tropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the
ridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are
significant differences among the track models as to when the turn
takes place and how sharp it will be. The GFS takes the cyclone
northwestward much faster than the ECMWF with more troughing
developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. For now, the NHC track
lies near a consensus of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 13.4N 60.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 13.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.9N 66.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.9N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 13.8N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 13.5N 74.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 14.8N 75.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:51 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 61.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and elsewhere in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 61.3 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move away
from the Windward Islands through this evening, and be over the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Matthew could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center. Winds of 39 mph (63
km/h) were recently reported on Barbados, and a weather station on
Martinique recently observed sustained winds of 47 mph (75 km/h)
with gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from recent reconnaissance
data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over
the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands within
the warning area this afternoon and continue into this evening.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:46 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016

...CENTER OF MATTHEW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 62.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Bonaire. The government of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Curacao and the government of Aruba has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for Aruba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
to 48 hours.

Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 62.0 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
move away from the Windward Islands through this evening, and be
over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center. A wind gust to 54 mph (87
km/h) was reported at Martinique within the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening
over the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands
within the warning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba, beginning late Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016

Surface observations and aircraft data from earlier this afternoon
indicate that the circulation of Matthew has continued to become
better defined. There has also been an increase in convection
just northeast of the center. The initial intensity remains 50 kt
based on the earlier aircraft data. The next Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter mission into Matthew is scheduled for this evening.
Although the increase in convection suggests that the system may be
trying to establish an inner core, recent microwave and radar data
have not revealed a significant increase in organization or banding
so far. The aircraft also did not report any pressure fall during
its mission. Based on these trends, little change in intensity is
predicted in the short-range, but warm waters and low shear are
expected to allow for steady strengthening while Matthew moves over
the eastern and central Caribbean during the next few days. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is a little below the intensity
consensus through 24 hours, but is close to the consensus and the
statistical models after that time.

Matthew is moving westward to west-northwestward at about 16 kt.
The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous
advisory. The tropical cyclone should move generally westward
during the next 2 to 3 days to the south of a strong deep-layer
ridge over the western Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast has
been nudged northward through 72 hours, to be closer to the new
model consensus. After day 3, Matthew is expected to turn
northwestward as it nears the western portion of the ridge. The
overall track envelope has shifted slightly eastward at days 4 and
5, and the NHC track has been adjusted accordingly. It should
be noted that are still significant differences among the models in
how soon and how sharply Matthew turns northwestward and northward
late in the forecast period. Users are reminded that the average
NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240
miles, respectively.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 13.8N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 14.1N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 14.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 14.4N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 14.1N 71.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 14.2N 73.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 15.8N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 19.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:51 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016

...MATTHEW STILL BATTERING MARTINIQUE AND NEARBY ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 62.4W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
to 48 hours.

Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 62.4 West. Matthew's
forward speed has decreased, and the storm is now moving toward the
west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion with some additional
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to
move away from the Windward Islands this evening, and be over the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Friday.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center. A wind gust to 89 mph
(143 km/h) was reported at St. Pierre, Martinique within the past
few hours.

The minimum central pressure just estimated by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening
over the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands
within the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba, beginning late Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:52 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016

...LARGE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 63.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
to 48 hours.

Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located by a reconnaissance plane near latitude 13.9 North,
longitude 63.1 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 15 mph
(24 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the center of Matthew will continue to move away from the Windward
Islands tonight, and be over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday night or
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
primarily to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening
over the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands
within the warning area. These condition should begin to subside
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba beginning late Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila


TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016

Matthew crossed a portion of the Lesser Antilles today, and
tropical-storm-force winds were experienced in various islands for
several hours. The strongest winds appeared to have occurred in
Martinique which was located in the northeastern quadrant of the
storm. An Air Force plane currently investigating Matthew measured
a peak wind at 850-mb of 73 kt, while the SFMR instrument measured
54 kt. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb. There are no signs
of an inner core yet, but the cloud pattern has increased in
organization, and the initial intensity was adjusted upward to 55
kt.

Matthew is forecast to move over warm waters and relatively low
shear during the next few days, and these conditions should lead to
gradual strengthening. There is a possibility, however, that
Matthew encounters some westerly shear in the central Caribbean well
south of Haiti in a day or two. This is an area climatologically
unfavorable for storms to intensify, and Matthew could reduce its
rate of strengthening there. After that, most of the models show a
more conducive upper-level environment, and Matthew could intensify
at a faster rate. The NHC forecast is not very different from its
predecessor and follows closely the intensity consensus.

Fixes from an Air Force plane indicate that Matthew is moving
toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt. A strong subtropical
ridge over the Atlantic is steering Matthew westward, and some
models even move the cyclone south of due west. Most of the guidance
is very consistent with this track during the next 48 hours. After
that time, guidance becomes more divergent, but in general, all
models turn the cyclone toward the northwest and north. Of the
historically reliable models, the westernmost track is the ECMWF
ensemble mean while the easternmost is the HWRF. The NHC track
forecast is in the middle of the TVCX and TVCN multi-model
consensus, and does not depart very much from the previous official
forecast.

There will be very interesting days ahead as Matthew moves toward
the central and western Caribbean Sea, and users are reminded that
the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180
and 240 miles, respectively.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 13.9N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 14.3N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 14.4N 67.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 14.3N 70.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 14.1N 71.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 14.5N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 16.8N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 20.0N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#7 Postby arlwx » Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:31 am

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

Matthew is currently experiencing 15-20 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear, with the low-level center located near the
western edge of the main convective mass. An earlier Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission reported 850 mb flight-level winds
of 65-70 kt and estimated surface winds of 50-55 kt from the SFMR
instrument. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 55
kt. The aircraft reported a central pressure of 1002 mb on its
last pass through the center.

The initial motion is 275/14. Matthew is currently on the south
side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. This feature should
steer the storm westward or even south of west during the next 48
hours. After that time, Matthew is expected to approach the
western end of the ridge as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the Gulf of Mexico. While this combination is expected to
cause the cyclone to turn generally northward, there is significant
disagreement between the dynamical models on where the turn will
occur and how fast Matthew will move northward. The forecast track
is in best agreement with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean in bringing
the center to eastern Cuba by 120 hours, although it is slower than
those models. The Canadian model is a little west of the forecast
track. The ECMWF and UKMET are to the east of the forecast track and
much slower, bringing the center to the island of Hispaniola.
Overall, the new forecast track is nudged a little south of the
previous track for the first 72 hours, then is similar to the
previous track. Users are reminded that the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240 miles,
respectively.

The current shear is likely to gradually diminish during the next
72 hours, and this should allow continued gradual development.
After that time, there is also disagreement in the models regarding
the forecast shear, with the GFS showing a more favorable pattern
than the ECMWF. If the GFS upper-level winds are correct, Matthew
could strengthen more than currently forecast as show by the HWRF.
However, given the uncertainty, the new intensity forecast is the
same as the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the
intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 14.0N 64.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 14.1N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 14.1N 69.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 13.9N 70.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 13.8N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 14.5N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 17.5N 75.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 20.5N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2016 6:50 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 65.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 65.5 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a general westward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew
is forecast to pass to the north of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao
through Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane later
today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
primarily to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from
reconnaissance aircraft is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao,
and Aruba beginning late today.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:05 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

...MATTHEW CONTINUES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 66.3W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM NE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 66.3 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general westward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next couple of days.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours,
and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane later today or
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao,
and Aruba beginning late today.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Matthew will begin to diminish
across the Lesser Antilles this afternoon, with additional amounts
of an inch or less expected. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao
through Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao,
Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown




TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

The center of Matthew is exposed to the southwest of the deep
convection due to moderate southwesterly shear. Despite the shear,
data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show that
Matthew is a little stronger this morning. The aircraft has
measured peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 80 kt, and believable
SFMR winds of around 60 kt, which is the basis for the initial
intensity. The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft
is down to 996 mb.

Given the current shear and structure of Matthew, only slight
strengthening is predicted during the next 24 hours. The shear is
forecast to slowly decrease over the next few days, although there
are some differences in the upper-level wind forecasts between the
ECMWF and GFS models. The ECMWF keeps a band of southwesterly
upper-level winds near Matthew, while the GFS generally shows lower
shear. The NHC forecast assumes that there will be a reduction in
shear and calls for intensification similar to the previous
advisory. The official wind speed forecast is between the lower
statistical guidance and the more aggressive HWRF and GFDL models.

Matthew is moving at 275/14 kt. The tropical storm is expected to
move westward to the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the
western Atlantic during the next couple of days. In about 48 hours,
Matthew should turn northwestward when it approaches the western
periphery of the ridge. After that time, the tropical cyclone is
forecast to turn northward while a mid- to upper-level trough
develops over the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS is still much faster than
the ECMWF at taking Matthew northward. Although the east/west spread
among the higher quality track models is somewhat smaller this
morning, there is still significant spread among the ECMWF ensembles
beyond 3 days, and the overall confidence in the track forecast is
still low. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous forecast and is very close to the multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.3N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 14.1N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 13.9N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 13.9N 72.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 15.3N 74.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.0N 75.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:39 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 67.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM NE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 67.0 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a general westward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next couple of days.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force-winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42059 has recently
reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to
54 mph (86 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft was 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao,
and Aruba beginning late today.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Matthew will begin to diminish
across the Lesser Antilles this afternoon, with additional amounts
of an inch or less expected. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao
through Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao,
Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Pasch
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:37 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

...HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 67.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border to
Riohacha.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia
should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in Jamaica,
Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 67.8 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westward to
west-southwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42059 has recently reported sustained
winds of 59 mph (94 km/h) with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao,
and Aruba tonight and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible over portions of the watch in Colombia beginning Friday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Matthew will continue to diminish
across the Lesser Antilles this evening. Isolated additional
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible over the southern
Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao,
Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Pasch




HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

After the low-level center became nearly exposed this morning, deep
convection has redeveloped over the center. The overall cloud
pattern of Matthew has become better organized during the day, with
some banding features over the eastern and northern portions of the
circulation. Thanks to some timely observations from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters, Matthew was upgraded to a hurricane at 18Z. This
was based on several believable SFMR-observed surface wind
measurements from the aircraft. Matthew is forecast to remain in an
environment of 15 to 20 kt of shear into Friday, with some
relaxation of the shear expected by late Friday. The official
intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and is
a little above the model consensus but close to the latest HWRF
model prediction.

Matthew has not slowed down yet, with the initial motion remaining
westward at 15 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the
hurricane should maintain a westward to slightly south of westward
motion for the next 48 hours or so. Then, Matthew is likely to
turn to the right as it nears the western periphery of the ridge,
and head generally northward to the southwest and west of the high
and east of a trough over the Gulf of Mexico late in the forecast
period. One should not focus on the details of the track at 72 to
120 hours due to the inherent forecast uncertainties. It should be
noted that the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently doing a synoptic
surveillance mission to provide data in the environment of Matthew
for initializing the numerical models. It is hoped that these
additional data will improve the accuracy of tonight's model
runs.

The unusually far south track of Matthew has necessitated the
issuance of a tropical storm watch for a portion of the coast of
Colombia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 14.1N 67.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 14.0N 69.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 13.8N 71.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 13.7N 72.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 13.7N 73.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 15.7N 75.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 18.6N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 22.5N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2016 6:51 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

...HURRICANE MATTHEW GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 68.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia
should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in Jamaica,
Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 68.1 West. Matthew
is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to
west-southwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao,
and Aruba tonight and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible over portions of the watch area in Colombia beginning
Friday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Matthew will continue to diminish
across the Lesser Antilles this evening. Isolated additional
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible over the southern
Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao,
Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:56 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

...HURRICANE MATTHEW STRENGTHENING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 68.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF CURACAO
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia
should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in Jamaica,
Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 14.1
North, longitude 68.8 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near
14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in
forward sped is forecast during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to
the north of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 185 miles (295 km) to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 983 mb (29.03 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao,
and Aruba tonight and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible over portions of the watch area in Colombia beginning
Friday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Matthew will continue to diminish
across the southern Windward Islands this evening. Rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over
Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao,
Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is
strengthening. The estimated minimum pressure from a dropsonde
is 983 mb. The SFMR instrument measured an isolated peak wind of
77 kt in the northwest quadrant near the center. However, the
flight-level winds measured in this mission so far only support an
initial intensity of 70 kt.

The cloud pattern is much better organized than 24 hours ago, and
a recent SSMIS pass showed an eye feature. This was confirmed by the
crew onboard the reconnaissance aircraft which reported a circular
22 n mi eye open to the south. Images from Curacao radar also show
the center of the cyclone becoming better defined. However, since
some southwesterly wind shear is still affecting the cyclone, only a
slight strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours.
After that time, the shear is forecast to relax some, and the
overall environment is expected to be more conducive for
intensification. The NHC forecast continues to be above the model
consensus, and is very similar to the forecast issued by my
predecessor.

Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and radar from Curacao indicate
that Matthew is moving toward the west or perhaps just south of due
west at about 12 kt. A strong ridge to the north is forecast to keep
Matthew moving westward across the southern portion of the Central
Caribbean for the next 2 days. After that time, Matthew will be
located on the western side of the high and ahead of a mid-latitude
trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern should force
the cyclone to turn toward the north at about 5 to 7 kt. The NHC
track forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, which in
fact has not changed very much today, and does not deviate much from
the previous forecast.

Global models, primarily the GFS and the ECMWF, continue to show a
strong hurricane in the vicinity of Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti in 3 or
4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 14.1N 68.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 14.0N 70.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 13.9N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 13.8N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 14.1N 74.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 16.4N 75.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 19.7N 75.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 23.5N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#14 Postby arlwx » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:17 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

There are no data currently available from the inner core of
Matthew, so it is unclear whether the earlier rapid intensification
is continuing. A well-defined elliptical eye is seen in data from
the Curacao radar. However, the latest satellite imagery shows
that the central convection is somewhat asymmetric and that an eye
is yet to form. Satellite intensity estimates are 90 kt from TAFB
and 77 kt from SAB. Based on continuity from the previous advisory
and no improvement in the satellite signature, the initial intensity
is held at a possibly conservative 85 kt. It is notable that the
rapid intensification has occurred despite an ongoing 20 kt of
southwesterly vertical wind shear.

The initial motion is 265/12. There is little change to the track
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of Matthew should keep it moving
westward or south of westward for the next 36 hours with some
decrease in forward speed. From 48-120 hours, the ridge is
forecast to weaken and shift eastward as a mid- to upper-level
trough moves into the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This
evolution should cause Matthew to turn northwestward and then
northward. There is a significant spread in where the turn will
occur and how fast Matthew will move afterwards. The ECMWF and
UKMET are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and slower
than the other models, while the GFS and Canadian models are to the
left of the center of the guidance envelope and much faster. The
various consensus models split these differences in both track and
speed, and the new forecast track lies close to them. Overall, the
new track is a little south of the previous track through 48 hours
and a little west of the previous track from 72-120 hours.

The intensity forecast is very problematic. The ongoing shear has
so far done little to keep Matthew from intensifying. Despite
this, the intensity guidance is in unanimous agreement that the
cyclone should weaken from 12-48 hours, most likely due to shear.
From 48-96 hours, the shear is expected to diminish, and during that
time Matthew is expected to intensify until it interacts with land.
The intensity forecast will smooth through what could be some ups
and downs in intensity. First, it assumes that the current
strengthening will continue for another 12-24 hours, with Matthew
reaching major hurricane strength. Then, it keeps the intensity at
100 kt from 24-48 hours, followed by some intensification as the
shear lets up. Weakening due to land interaction is forecast after
72 hours. The intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the
intensity guidance, but it is less intense than the HWRF model from
72-120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 14.0N 69.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 13.8N 71.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 13.7N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 13.9N 73.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.5N 74.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 17.0N 76.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 20.5N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:49 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

...MATTHEW CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 70.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NE OF PUTNA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Curacao has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Curacao.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Aruba
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia
should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in Jamaica,
Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew. A hurricane watch may be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 13.8 North, longitude 70.3 West. Matthew is moving toward
the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is
expected later today, and this westward motion with a decrease in
forward speed are forecast through Saturday. A turn toward the
northwest is expected Saturday night or Sunday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Matthew
could become a major hurricane later today or tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft was
971 mb (28.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Aruba this
morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions
of the watch area in Colombia beginning later today.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao,
Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:42 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 70.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has changed the Tropical Storm Watch
that was in effect from the Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha
to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The government of Aruba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Aruba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia
should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in Jamaica,
Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew. A hurricane watch may be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 70.8 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected later today and
tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday
night, followed by a turn toward the northwest by early Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Matthew will pass north of the
Guajira Peninsula later today and tonight and remain over the
central Caribbean Sea through early Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is
forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area in Colombia later later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao,
Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Matthew has continued to intensify this morning. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured a peak SFMR wind
of 99 kt and a 700-mb wind of 103 kt. Based on these data, the
initial intensity is set to 100 kt for this advisory. The aircraft
reported that the central pressure had fallen to 968 mb, and also
observed a 16 n mi wide eye that is open to the southwest. Water
vapor imagery shows a well-established poleward outflow channel,
with outflow also expanding in the southwest quadrant.

This intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterly
shear of around 20 kt. The SHIPS model output shows this shear
continuing for the next 36 hours or so, and as a result, the SHIPS
and LGEM models show Matthew weakening during this time. This
weakening trend is also shown by the HWRF and COAMPS-TC hurricane
models. However, I am reluctant to show a decrease in intensity
given that the environment around the cyclone does not appear to
change much. Some short-term fluctuations in intensity are
certainly possible, but the official forecast remains above much of
the guidance in the short range and keeps the intensity at 100 kt
through 72 hours. Some weakening is shown by days 4 and 5 due to
potential land interaction. Late in the period the NHC forecast is
closest to the HWRF model.

Matthew has been moving west-southwestward during the past few
hours, with an initial motion estimate of 255/10. The cyclone
should continue moving south of due west for the next 12 hours to
the south of a mid-level ridge nosing into the northern Caribbean
Sea. After that, Matthew should gradually turn poleward as the
ridge retreats eastward and a trough moves into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance,
both along and across track. The ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble mean, and
the UKMET are slower and on the right side of the guidance envelope
at 48 hours and beyond. The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, HWRF, and
COAMPS-TC are faster and farther to the left. The new NHC track
forecast has been adjusted a little to the south in the first 36
hours due to the initial motion, and lies a little south of the
consensus and close to the GFS at this time range. Beyond that
time, the official forecast is an update of the previous one and
lies a little to the east of the latest multi-model consensus and a
bit to the west of the GFS/ECMWF blend.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 13.7N 70.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 13.5N 71.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 13.5N 73.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 13.8N 74.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 14.7N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 21.5N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 25.5N 75.7W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:53 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE JUST NORTH OF THE GUAJIRA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 71.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia
should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in Jamaica,
Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew. A hurricane watch may be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 71.3 West. Matthew is moving
toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion
at a slower forward speed is expected later today and tonight. A
turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night,
followed by a turn toward the northwest by early Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Matthew will pass north of the Guajira
Peninsula this afternoon and tonight and remain over the central
Caribbean Sea through early Sunday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from the aircraft
is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area in Colombia later later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao,
Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:51 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 71.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwestern coast
of Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and
elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew.
Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 71.6 West. Matthew is moving
toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion
at a slower forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. A turn
toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night, followed by
a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula this
tonight, move across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be
near Jamaica on Sunday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is
possible tonight, and some fluctuations in intensity are possible
Saturday and Sunday. Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
aircraft is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area in Colombia through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Matthew has continued to rapidly strengthen at a remarkable rate
today. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a peak
SFMR wind of 116 kt and flight-level winds of 121 kt. A recent
dropsonde from the aircraft indicated that surface winds are around
120 kt. Based on all of these data, the initial intensity is set to
120 kt, an increase of 55 kt in the last 24 hours. The latest
pressure estimate from the aircraft is 949 mb, a drop of 44 mb since
this time yesterday.

Some additional strengthening is possible in the next 12 hours or
so, and the NHC forecast reflects that possibility, showing 125 kt
at that time. Given the lack of skill of the intensity guidance
thus far, this remains a low confidence forecast, and its possible
this could be conservative. Since Matthew has now become a major
hurricane, eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would lead to
some fluctuations in intensity not shown here. After 12 hours, a
gradual weakening is shown, following the trend of, but above nearly
all of the intensity guidance. Land interaction with Cuba should
lead to additional weakening by day 4, but Matthew is expected to
remain a strong hurricane through the forecast period.

The initial motion is still toward the west-southwest, but the
forward speed has slowed a bit, to around 8 kt. The track forecast
reasoning has not changed, with Matthew expected to turn westward by
12 hours and then gradually turn toward the north in the next 3 to 4
days as the cyclone moves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
The track model guidance is in slightly better agreement this cycle
through 3 days, although the ECMWF remains right of and slower than
the rest of the guidance at days 4 and 5. The GFS, HWRF, and
COAMPS-TC are faster and to the left late in the period, although
the GFS has trended slower this cycle. The new NHC track has again
been adjusted a little to the left through 72 hours given the
initial position and motion, and after that time is along the
previous official forecast but slower, following the slower trend in
the guidance this cycle. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and is a little to the east of the multi-model
consensus at days 4 and 5.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 13.5N 71.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 13.3N 72.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 13.5N 73.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 14.1N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 15.2N 75.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 18.2N 76.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 25.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:44 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MATTHEW WITH 150 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.90 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and
elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew.
Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the well-defined eye of Hurricane Matthew
was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 72.0 West. Matthew
is moving south of due west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion
at a slower forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. A turn
toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night, followed by
a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula tonight,
move across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be near
Jamaica late on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km) primarily to the north of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 945 mb (27.90 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area in Colombia through tonight. Hurricane
conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:59 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...MATTHEW BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE FELIX IN 2007...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 72.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and
elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew.
Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 72.3 West. Matthew is moving
just south of due west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward
the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula tonight, move
across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be approaching
Jamaica late Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260
km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by a reconnaissance aircraft
was 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area in Colombia overnight. Hurricane
conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

An Air Force reconnaissance plane recently measured a peak SFMR wind
of 143 kt and then 138 kt during this mission's eye penetrations.
Furthermore, the satellite presentation has improved considerably
with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection.
The raw objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS have been above 7.0 since
2100 UTC. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to
140 kt, making Matthew a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic
basin since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain
a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the
reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum
winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur
soon. This should result in fluctuations in intensity, and given
that southwesterly shear is still affecting the cyclone, some
weakening is anticipated. However, Matthew is forecast to be a
category 4 hurricane by the time it moves near Jamaica and eastern
Cuba. Some additional weakening is expected over the high terrain of
Cuba. It is noted that none the guidance ever indicated the rapid
strengthening of Matthew.

Matthew is still moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 6 kt
steered by a strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic.
In about 12 hours, the hurricane should be on the western edge of
the high and ahead of a deepening trough over the Gulf of Mexico.
This steering pattern should force Matthew to turn northwestward and
then northward at about 5 to 10 kt. The track guidance has been very
consistent with this scenario, and there are no reasons to deviate
much from the previous NHC forecast. At the end of the forecast
period, when Matthew is expected to be in the Bahamas, the track
models are in less agreement with both track and speed, increasing
the uncertainty in the forecast. The NHC forecast follows closely
the multi-model consensus TVCN and TVCX.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 13.3N 72.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 13.3N 73.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 13.7N 74.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 14.6N 75.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 16.0N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 19.0N 76.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 23.1N 76.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 26.0N 76.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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