ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#121 Postby arlwx » Sun Oct 09, 2016 3:59 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

Satellite and radar imagery indicate that Matthew has become a
post-tropical cyclone, with the closest deep convection now located
more than 150 nmi north and northeast of the exposed low-level
center. Despite this change in structure, surface observations
across eastern North Carolina and an earlier ASCAT pass indicate
that strong winds persist northwest through southwest of the
center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission completed
earlier this morning also indicated that hurricane-force winds
were occuring southwest of the center, so the initial intensity
is being maintained at 65 kt for this advisory. Surface
observations indicate that a cold front should overtake Matthew's
center shortly, resulting in extratropical transition. The global
and regional models forecast Matthew to slowly weaken over the next
48 hours, and that trend has been followed in the official
intensity forecast. In the 48-72 hour time period, Matthew's
circulation is expected to dissipate within the frontal system.

A combination of satellite and radar imagery, aircraft data, and
coastal surface observations indicate that Matthew is moving 065/12
kt. Matthew is now fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerly
flow, and this deep-layer steering pattern is expected to move the
cyclone east-northeastward and away from the coast of North
Carolina today. An eastward motion is expected by tonight and
should continue until Matthew dissipates in 48 hours or so. The new
NHC track forecast is a little north of the previous track and lies
close to a blend of the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS solutions.

Recent observations and the forecast strength of the band of winds
over the eastern North Carolina coastal area requires maintaining
the Hurricane Watch. Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of
Virginia are being handled by non-tropical wind warnings.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds
continue to shift to the west side of the circulation. The winds
are expected to increase significantly over the coastal areas of
eastern North Carolina during the next several hours, and during
the next 6 to 12 hours there is the possibility of near-hurricane
force winds over the North Carolina Outer Banks, as well as the
Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. There is also an increased threat of
storm surge in these areas. Please see the Prototype Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk.

2. Although Matthew has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products
as long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 34.9N 75.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 09/1800Z 35.2N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/0600Z 35.4N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1800Z 35.9N 66.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0600Z 36.5N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#122 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2016 7:28 am

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND SOUND-SIDE STORM SURGE FLOODING
OCCURING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.0N 74.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Matthew was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 74.5 West.
Matthew is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
motion toward the east-northeast or east is expected for the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
move farther offshore of the coast of the North Carolina Outer Banks
today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
mainly to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). A coastal marine
observing site near Hatteras, North Carolina, recently reported
sustained winds of 63 mph (102 km/h) with a gust to 84 mph (135
km/h). A wind gust to 90 mph (127 km/h) was measured at an elevated
private weather station near Nags Head, North Carolina, and a wind
gust to 70 mph (113 km/h) has been observed at Dare County Airport
near Manteo, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the
warning area through early this afternoon, and then gradually
diminish by this evening. Hurricane-force wind gusts should
continue through this morning over the North Carolina Outer Banks.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
this morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina,
including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across southeast Virginia and
extreme eastern North Carolina through this morning. Storm total
rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches,
continues to result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding
across the region.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States
during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#123 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:57 am

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

...STRONG WINDS AND SOUND-SIDE STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 73.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Hurricane Watches have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Matthew was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 73.7 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the
next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
move farther offshore of the coast of the North Carolina Outer Banks
today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the low is expected to be absorbed within a frontal boundary
Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly
to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). A coastal marine observing
site near Hatteras, North Carolina, recently reported a gust to 61
mph (98 km/h). A wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has been observed
within the past hour or so at Dare County Airport near Manteo, North
Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the
warning area this afternoon, and then gradually diminish by this
evening.

STORM SURGE: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation
through this afternoon along the coast from Cape Lookout to Duck,
North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds. Water levels should subside by this evening. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Rainfall will diminish across the coastal Mid-Atlantic by
early afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts of less than an inch
are possible across Delaware and eastern Maryland. Life-threatening
flooding will continue over portions of eastern North Carolina
that have received record rains from Matthew.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States
during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a cold
front has wrapped around the southwestern portion of Matthew's
circulation and the post-tropical cyclone is now analyzed as an
extratropical low. Despite the change in the cyclone's structure
over the past 24 hours, Matthew continues to produce an area of very
strong winds to the southwest and west of the center. Sustained
winds of 55 to 60 kt with gusts above hurricane force were reported
at several coastal marine observing stations near the Outer Banks of
North Carolina this morning, and a recent dropsonde from the Global
Hawk unmanned aircraft reported surface winds of 58 kt. Based on
these data, the initial intensity remains 65 kt. The global models
indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will gradually weaken during
the next 24 to 36 hours, and be absorbed by a frontal boundary in
about 48 hours.

Matthew is moving eastward at about 13 kt. The low should continue
moving eastward within the mid-latitude westerly flow during the
next day or so. The NHC forecast track is close to a blend of the
ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models, and is similar to the previous
advisory.

Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia are being handled
by non-tropical wind warnings.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue over the North Carolina
Outer Banks this afternoon, with gusts to near hurricane force
possible during the next hour or two. Storm surge flooding
continues over portions of the Outer Banks. Please see the
Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the
areas at risk.

2. Although Matthew has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products
as long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 35.2N 73.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 10/0000Z 35.3N 71.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1200Z 35.7N 68.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/0000Z 37.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#124 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2016 1:00 pm

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

...STORM SURGE AND INLAND FLOODING CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 72.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Surf City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Matthew was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 72.9 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the
next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
move farther offshore of the coast of the North Carolina Outer Banks
this afternoon and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and
the low is expected to be absorbed within a frontal boundary Monday
night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
mainly to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the
warning area this afternoon, and then gradually diminish by this
evening.

STORM SURGE: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation
through this afternoon along the coast from Cape Lookout to Duck,
North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds. Water levels should subside by this evening. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Life-threatening flooding will continue over portions of
eastern North Carolina that have received record rains from
Matthew. Consult products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office for additional information and warnings.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States
during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#125 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2016 3:42 pm

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

...WINDS DIMINISHING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BUT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 72.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Matthew was located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 72.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast tonight, and the low is expected
to be absorbed within a frontal boundary on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km),
primarily to the southwest and west of the center, and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NASA
Global Hawk aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force will continue over
portions of the Outer Banks tonight.

STORM SURGE: Dangerously high water levels over portions of the
Outer Banks will gradually subside overnight and early Monday.
Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office for additional information.

RAINFALL: Life-threatening flooding will continue over portions
of eastern North Carolina that have received record rains from
Matthew. Consult products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office for additional information and warnings.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States
during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Matthew. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brown




POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

Dropsonde data from a NASA Global Hawk mission into Matthew today
indicate that the post-tropical cyclone has not weakened. The
observations continue to show a band of 60-65 kt winds to the
southwest and west of the center. Matthew is moving east-
northeastward at about 13 kt, and an east-northeastward motion
within the mid-latitude westerlies should continue through
tonight. Matthew is forecast by the global models to weaken and be
absorbed within a frontal boundary on Monday, and the NHC forecast
follows suit. It should be noted that a strong baroclinic low is
expected to develop along the same frontal boundary near Nova
Scotia on Monday.

Winds over the Outer Banks of North Carolina have gradually
diminished this afternoon, and the tropical storm warning has been
discontinued. Dangerously high water levels over portions of the
Outer Banks will gradually subside overnight and early Monday.
Based on these trends, this will be the last NHC advisory on
Matthew. For additional information on the elevated water levels in
the Outer Banks and the ongoing freshwater flooding in eastern North
Carolina, see products and warnings issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office. Additional information on Matthew
can also be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01
KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 35.4N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 10/0600Z 36.4N 69.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
Forecaster Brown
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