ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

[AJC3]

WTNT34 KNHC 010536
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...MATTHEW CONTINUES AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 72.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and
elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew.
Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 72.5 West. Matthew is moving
just south of due west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward
the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will move away from the Guajira Peninsula tonight, move
across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be approaching
Jamaica late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
through Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area in Colombia for the remainder of
tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday,
with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
today. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[arlwx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...MATTHEW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 72.8W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and
elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew.
Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 72.8 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast later today, followed by a turn toward
the north-northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will move away from the Guajira Peninsula this morning, move
across the central Caribbean Sea today, and be approaching Jamaica
late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
through Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area in Colombia for the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through today.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are
expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to
Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the
Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, and eastern Cuba during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...POWERFUL MATTHEW MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 73.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 13.4 North, longitude 73.1 West. Matthew is moving toward
the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is
forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest
on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
continue to move away from the Guajira Peninsula this morning, move
across the central Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach
Jamaica Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area in Colombia for the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through today.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are
expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to
Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the
Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, and eastern Cuba during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...MATTHEW REMAINS A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 73.4W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Haiti from the
southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St.
Nicholas.

The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for that country.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Le Mole St. Nicholas

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor
the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for
portions of eastern Cuba later today.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 73.4 West. Matthew is moving
toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west-
northwest is forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest on Sunday and toward the north on Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Matthew will move across the central
Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach Jamaica and
southwestern Haiti Sunday night and Monday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The latest minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft was
947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in
Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by late Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba
by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Monday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Barranquilla. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela
from Coro to the Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan




HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

The eye of Matthew has shrunk and become less distinct in
geostationary imagery during the past few hours. Data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show a very sharp wind
profile near the center and a radius of maximum winds of 7 n mi. The
central pressure has risen a little, to 947 mb on the last center
fix. The highest SFMR wind sampled by the aircraft was 118 kt, so
the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 125 kt for this
advisory. Its possible that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun,
but there is not much evidence of a secondary wind maximum in the
aircraft data yet, and we haven't had any recent microwave imagery
to look at the inner-core structure.

Gradual weakening is expected in the next 24 hours, in agreement
with all of the guidance, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane until it until interacts with the land masses of
Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba in 2-3 days. After that time,
conditions appear conducive for restrengthening once Matthew moves
into the Bahamas late in the forecast period. Note that there will
likely be short-term fluctuations in intensity due to possible
eyewall replacement cycles that are not shown here.

Matthew has been moving westward at around 5 kt under the influence
of a mid-level ridge centered near Bermuda. This ridge is forecast
to gradually weaken and shift eastward, which should allow Matthew
to turn northward while it moves into a weakness in the ridge during
the forecast period. The track model guidance is in generally good
agreement on this scenario through 48 hours, and during that time
the new NHC forecast has been shifted a little to the right toward
the latest consensus aids, but remains to their left and lies near
the latest GFS track.

Late in the period the track model spread increases, with the ECMWF
on the right and the GFS well to the left. The evolution of the
western Atlantic subtropical ridge late in the period appears to be
sensitive to the track and strength of the mid/upper-level low
currently centered over the Ohio Valley. The ECMWF shows a weaker
ridge, which allows Matthew to move farther east, while the GFS has
a stronger ridge and takes Matthew more north-northwestward. Given
the uncertainty and variability seen in the handling of these
features from cycle to cycle, the NHC forecast continues to lie in
between the two scenarios, and maintains continuity with the
previous official forecast. The new NHC track is well east of the
latest GFS by day 5, but lies west of the consensus aids. Needless
to say, confidence in the details of the track forecast at days 4
and 5 is quite low.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 13.4N 73.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 13.6N 73.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 74.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 15.7N 75.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 17.1N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 20.5N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1200Z 24.0N 76.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 06/1200Z 26.5N 76.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...POWERFUL MATTHEW MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 73.4W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Le Mole St. Nicholas

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor
the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for
portions of eastern Cuba later today.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 73.4 West. While Matthew has
been moving erratically for the past couple of hours, overall the
center has drifted southward at around 2 mph (4 km/h). A faster
motion toward the west should resume later today, followed by a turn
toward the west-northwest by tonight. A turn toward the north-
northwest is forecast on Sunday, with northward motion expected on
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move
across the central Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach
Jamaica and southwestern Haiti Sunday night and Monday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts.
Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the
next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
aircraft is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in
Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by late Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba
by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Monday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Barranquilla. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela
from Coro to the Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND MUCH OF HAITI...
...MATTHEW EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL TO PORTIONS
OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 73.4W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Jamaica.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Haiti from the southern
border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Haiti from east of Le Mole
St. Nicholas to the northern border with the Dominican Republic.

The Meteorological Service of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for
eastern Cuba from the province of Camaguey southeastward to the
province of Guantanamo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Le Mole St. Nicholas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantanamo province

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for
portions of the Bahamas tonight or Sunday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 73.4 West. Matthew is currently
drifting toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a slow
northwestward motion is expected to continue through tonight. A
turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed
are expected Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica
and southwestern Haiti on Monday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts.
Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the
next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
in Jamaica and Haiti on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to first reach these areas by late Sunday or Sunday night,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible the hurricane watch areas by
Monday night or Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire
through Sunday. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over northern Colombia, northwest
Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25
inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic, and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...5 to 8 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...2 to 4 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

Matthew's cloud pattern has improved this afternoon, with the small
eye becoming more distinct. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft
recently found peak SFMR winds of around 130 kt, and a peak
7,000-ft flight-level wind of 135 kt. The initial intensity is
raised to 130 kt for this advisory. The wind field has contracted
today, and the radius of maximum winds is now about 6 n mi. The
latest minimum pressure based on a dropsonde from the aircraft is
940 mb. Radar imagery from the NOAA plane suggests that an outer
eyewall may be forming, but the current eye has been resilient
today. Some gradual net weakening is expected during the next day
or so, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane until
it begins to interact with the landmasses of Jamaica, eastern Cuba,
and Hispaniola in 48 to 72 hours. Some weakening is expected during
that time, but conditions appear conducive for restrengthening once
Matthew moves into the Bahamas late in the forecast period. The NHC
forecast is well above the intensity consensus through much of the
period. Note that there will likely be short-term fluctuations in
intensity like we've seen today due to internal dynamics, including
eyewall replacement cycles, that are not shown here.

Matthew has made a small cyclonic loop since the last advisory, and
the initial motion estimate is a northwestward drift at around 3 kt.
The mid-level ridge centered near Bermuda is expected to weaken and
shift eastward, causing Matthew to turn northward while it moves
into a weakness in the ridge during the forecast period. The track
model guidance has shifted a little to the east in the short range,
and the NHC track during this time has been adjusted in that
direction, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus.

Late in the period the track model spread remains considerable, as
the global models continue to have issues depicting the synoptic-
scale pattern over the eastern United States and western Atlantic in
4-5 days. The evolution of the mid/upper-level low currently
centered over the Ohio Valley and how it interacts with the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge appear to be critical to the long-term
track of Matthew. The UKMET and ECMWF tracks have shifted westward
and slower by day 5, while the GFS has trended east. This has
narrowed the guidance envelope somewhat, but given the lack of
run-to-run consistency I'd hesitate to say that confidence in the
long-range track forecast has increased by any appreciable measure.
The new NHC track at these times leans heavily on continuity, and by
day 5 is close to the GFS/ECMWF blend and left of the latest
multi-model consensus aid TVCN.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 13.5N 73.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 13.6N 73.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 14.8N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 16.1N 74.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 17.6N 75.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 75.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 24.5N 75.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 26.5N 76.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW BARELY MOVING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 73.4W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Le Mole St. Nicholas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantanamo province

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for
portions of the Bahamas tonight or Sunday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
by satellite near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 73.4 West. Matthew
has barely moved during past few hours, but a slow northwestward
motion is expected to begin tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and
southwestern Haiti on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
in Jamaica and Haiti on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to first reach these areas by late Sunday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
Monday night or Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic, and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to
2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through Sunday. Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over
northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...5 to 8 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...2 to 4 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...150-MPH MATTHEW FINALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 73.6W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Le Mole St. Nicholas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantanamo province

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for
portions of the Bahamas on Sunday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 73.6 West. Matthew
began to move toward the north-northwest at 7 mph (11 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue on Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected
to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
in Jamaica and Haiti on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to first reach these areas by late Sunday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
Monday night or Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to
2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through Sunday. Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over
northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...6 to 9 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

Recent satellite images suggest that the structure of Matthew has
changed little, and the winds are still estimated at 130 kt. The
hurricane should experience some weakening during the next couple of
days, but Matthew is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane until
it interacts with the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba in
about 48 hours or so. Once Matthew reaches the Bahamas, the
upper-level environment and warm waters will favor some
restrengthening. In the mean time, some short-term fluctuations in
intensity are possible due to internal dynamics, including eyewall
replacement cycles, that are not included here. A better estimate
of the intensity can be obtained when the next Air Force plane
reaches Matthew at about 1130 UTC Sunday.

A very convenient SSMIS pass at 0006 UTC was helpful in locating the
eye of Matthew, and after a period of little or no motion, the
hurricane has apparently begun a north-northwest track at about 6
kt. The steering pattern has not changed, and the motion of the
hurricane for the next 2 to 3 days remains controlled by a
mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing mid-level
trough in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. This flow pattern will steer Matthew toward the
north-northwest and north toward western Haiti, eastern Cuba,
and Jamaica during the next day or so. This portion of the NHC
forecast track was shifted eastward following the trend of the
overall guidance, primarily the multi-model consensus. Beyond 72
hours, given the large spread of the guidance, the confidence in the
track is low.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 13.8N 73.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 14.2N 73.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 15.3N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 16.7N 74.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 18.3N 74.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 22.0N 74.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 25.0N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 27.5N 75.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[arlwx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

...POWERFUL MATTHEW MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 73.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from
Barahona westward to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch
has also been issued for the north coast of the Dominican Republic
from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Le Mole St. Nicholas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantanamo province

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for
portions of the Bahamas later this morning.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 73.9 West. Matthew is
moving toward the north-northwest at 6 mph (9 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
in Jamaica and Haiti on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to first reach these areas by this evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm
conditions are expected along the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic within the warning area by this evening.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
Monday night or Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Monday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in
the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to
2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through today. Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over
northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...6 to 9 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

[arlwx]

HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 74.1W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban
provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las
Tunas.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the north coast of Haiti
from Le Mole St. Nicholas eastward to the border with the Dominican
Republic.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including
the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, and Long Cay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, and Long Cay
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 74.1 West. Matthew is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
north tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti this evening, and
eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
by tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the
tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to
2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through today. Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over
northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...6 to 9 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

[arlwx]

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

The overall organization of the hurricane has changed little
overnight, with the small eye remaining distinct in infrared
satellite pictures. A very recent AMSR2 microwave overpass showed
no indication of an eyewall replacement, but there was a notable dry
slot between the inner core and the outer bands over the southern
portion of the circulation. Although Dvorak data T-numbers
decreased slightly at 0600 UTC, the objective and subjective CI
numbers are about the same as before, so the initial intensity will
remain 130 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Matthew this
morning, which should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's
current strength and structure. Although some weakening is predicted
during the next couple of days, Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane when it approaches the islands of the Greater
Antilles in a couple of days. The upper-level wind environment is
expected to remain favorable over the Bahamas, and warm waters in
that area should allow Matthew to maintain much of its intensity
while it moves over that area later in the forecast period.

Matthew has been moving slowly west-northwestward during the past
few hours, but the longer-term motion estimate is northwest or 320
degrees at 4 kt. The forecast track reasoning remains unchanged
from before. Matthew should move slowly northwestward today,
and then turn northward tonight as a mid- to upper-level trough
develops over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This motion will take
Matthew towards Jamaica, western Haiti, and eastern Cuba over the
next couple of days. After that time, the global models bend
Matthew back toward the north-northwest between the aforementioned
trough and a developing ridge off the northeast United States coast.
The dynamical models are in good agreement on this scenario through
72 hours, with increasing spread thereafter. The GFS, ECMWF, and
UKMET are along the western side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,
while the HWRF is along the eastern side. The latest NHC track is
close to the model consensus through day 3, but is west of the
consensus at 96 and 120 h, to be closer to the typically better
performing global models.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 13.9N 74.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 14.6N 74.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.6N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.8N 74.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 22.6N 74.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 25.5N 75.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 28.0N 76.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 74.3W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 74.3 West. Matthew is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
north tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti this evening, and
eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
by tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the
tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to
2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through today. Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over
northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...6 to 9 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MEANDERING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 74.6W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 74.6 West. Matthew is
drifting toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward
the north tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew
will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti this evening, and
eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
by tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the
tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 40 inches. Across western Haiti, expect total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 16
inches, while northern sections of Haiti can expect lower amounts
in the 1 to 3 inch range with localized maxima near 5 inches.
Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20
inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. This
rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 10
inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to
2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through Sunday. Matthew
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
over northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica,
with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

The eye of Matthew has become obscured on visible satellite images,
which is often an indication of weakening. Microwave images showed
a distinct dry slot over the southwestern and western portions of
the circulation. Also there has been a persistent, but
inexplicable, cluster of deep convection located a couple of degrees
to the east of the hurricane and the effect of this feature on
Matthew's intensity evolution is unknown. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigated the northeastern eyewall, the strongest
part of the circulation, and found that the winds had decreased
somewhat from earlier this morning. The intensity is set to 120 kt
for this advisory. The vertical shear is not forecast to become
much stronger while Matthew is in the Caribbean, so the hurricane
should remain near category 4 status for the next 36-48 hours. Once
Matthew moves into the Atlantic, some increase in shear along with
a decrease in oceanic heat content should result in a little
weakening. However, there is significant uncertainty in the 3-5 day
forecast intensities.

After a northwestward motion, the center has meandered westward
over the past few hours. Matthew is expected to turn northward and
move between a mid-level ridge to the east and a weak trough over
the Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Later in the forecast
period, the global models show a slight building of a ridge to the
northeast of Matthew which would induce a turn toward the left in
3-5 days. The timing and magnitude of this turn is still uncertain
however. Looking at the better-performing models, the track
guidance suite is bracketed by the GFS model on the left and the
HWRF model on the right. The official forecast is slightly west of
the multi-model consensus and very similar to the previous NHC
track.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 14.0N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.9N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 16.1N 75.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.7N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 19.5N 74.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 23.2N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 26.5N 76.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 29.5N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

...MATTHEW A LITTLE STRONGER AGAIN...
...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 74.6W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 74.6 West. Matthew is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane into Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti this evening, and
eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
by tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the
tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 40 inches. Across western Haiti, expect total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 16
inches, while northern sections of Haiti can expect lower amounts
in the 1 to 3 inch range with localized maxima near 5 inches.
Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20
inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. This
rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 10
inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to
2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through Sunday. Matthew
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
over northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica,
with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

...POWERFUL MATTHEW MAINTAINING CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 74.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 74.8 West. Matthew is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane into Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km). NOAA data buoy 42058, in the central Caribbean, recently
reported a wind gust to 70 mph (112 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti tonight, and eastern
Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
by tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the
tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches of southern Haiti and the southwestern portion of
the Dominican republic, with possible isolated amounts of 40 inches.
Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches are expected, with possible isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches. Across eastern Jamaica total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
is expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.
This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12
inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Lower amounts are expected across the northeastern section of Haiti
and the Dominican Republic, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches
with isolated amounts around 5 inches. Rain amounts of 1 to 2
inches are expected over western Jamaica. Additional rainfall of 1
to 2 inches is expected over northern Colombia through Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

After temporarily losing some of its organization this morning,
Matthew has become a little more impressive in its appearance. The
eye, while not quite cleared out on visible imagery, has become more
distinct during the day and the overall cloud pattern has become a
bit more symmetric. Consistent with these changes, observations
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that some
strengthening has taken place. The advisory intensity is set
to 125 kt based on a blend of flight-level winds, SFMR-observed
surface winds, and eyewall dropsonde data from the aircraft.

Dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Matthew
should remain low or at most moderate at least until the cyclone
moves near the Bahamas, which would imply little decrease in
intensity. However, interactions with land should cause some
weakening during the next couple of days. Aside from that, some
fluctuations in strength could occur due to eyewall replacements.
The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model
consensus.

Earlier today, the hurricane meandered westward for several hours,
but recent aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that the motion is
northwestward, albeit slowly, at around 4 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is about the same as in the previous advisory package.
Matthew is expected to turn northward and move along the western
side of a mid-level high pressure area for the next several days.
Later in the forecast period, a ridge building slightly to the north
of the tropical cyclone could induce a turn to the left. In
general, the track models have not shifted closer to the coast with
the exception of the U.K. Met. Office global model, which is an
outlier. The official track forecast is along essentially the same
trajectory as the previous one, but is a little slower than before.
This is slightly west of the latest multi-model consensus.

Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of
Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible possible
hurricane impacts there. It is also too soon to know whether, or
how, Matthew might affect the remainder of the United States east
coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 14.6N 74.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 15.4N 74.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 16.7N 74.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.3N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 20.1N 74.5W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1800Z 23.6N 75.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 26.8N 76.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 30.0N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MATTHEW IS STILL A POWERFUL
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 75.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Matthew
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 14.5 North, longitude 75.0 West. Matthew is moving toward
the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest
is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica
and southwestern Haiti on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane into Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). NOAA data buoy 42058, in the central Caribbean Sea,
recently reported a wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by the
reconnaissance aircraft was 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti tonight, and eastern
Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
by tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the
tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches in southern Haiti and the southwestern portion of
the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of 40 inches.
Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches are expected, with possible isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches. Across eastern Jamaica, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
is expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.
This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12
inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Lower amounts are expected across the northeastern section of Haiti
and the Dominican Republic, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches
with isolated amounts around 5 inches. Rain amounts of 1 to 2
inches are expected over western Jamaica. Additional rainfall of
1 to 2 inches is expected over northern Colombia through tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

...MATTHEW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 75.0W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the Southeastern Bahamas and a Hurricane Watch for the Central
Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of the small eye of Hurricane
Matthew was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 75.0 West.
Matthew is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and
southwestern Haiti on Monday and into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane into Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km). NOAA data buoy 42058, located about 20 miles north of
Matthew's center, recently reported a wind gust to 67 mph (108
km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti tonight, and eastern
Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
by tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the
tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches across southern Haiti and the southwestern portion
of the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of
40 inches. Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across eastern Jamaica, total
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12
inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Lower amounts are expected across the northeastern section of Haiti
and the Dominican Republic, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches
with isolated amounts around 5 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2
inches is expected over northern Colombia through tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
Central and southeastern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

Although an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating
Matthew this evening has yet to report flight-level or surface
winds anywhere close to the 130-kt winds measured in the previous
flight, recent aircraft data have indicated that the surface
pressure and 700-mb height have both decreased since the previous
flight. The eye has cleared out in infrared satellite imagery and
cloud tops have cooled around the 8-12 nmi diameter eye. Given the
lower central pressure of 943 mb, which corresponds to about 120 kt
on the Dvorak pressure-wind relationship, the small eye, and recent
NHC objective T-numbers of T6.3/123 kt to T6.5/127 kt, the initial
intensity will remain at 125 kt for this advisory.

Matthew has continued to meander and wobble over the past several
hours, but the best estimate of the forward motion based on recent
recon fixes is 360/04 kt. Although some erratic motion could still
occur due to Matthew interacting with a large convective complex and
mid-/upper-level vortex located about 150 nmi east of Matthew, the
cyclone is expected to move in a general northward direction for the
next 48 hours or so. After clearing the northeastern coast of Cuba,
Matthew is expected to turn toward the north-northwest within
southeasterly flow between the western periphery of a strong ridge
located over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak mid- to
upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The 12Z UKMET and 18Z GFS and GFS-ensemble mean models now
show a weaker trough over the Gulf of Mexico on days 3-5 as a larger
storm system currently located over the northwestern U.S. is
forecast to not be as strong or as far south as previously expected.
This has resulted in more downstream ridging in those models over
the southeastern United States, and the model tracks of Matthew have
responded by shifting westward. The new NHC track forecast has been
shifted slightly to the west or left of the previous advisory track,
mainly to account for the more westward initial position. However,
the forecast track remains to the east of the UKMET, GFS, and
GFS-ensemble mean models, and lies near the TVCX consensus model.

Matthew is forecast to remain in a low vertical wind shear
environment for the next 36-48 hours, with the shear reaching near
zero values by 24 hours. This condition, along with the very
favorable upper-level outflow pattern noted in water vapor imagery,
should allow for the cyclone to at least maintain its current
intensity, barring the eye making any direct interactions with
Jamaica or Haiti. By 48 hours, however, land interaction with
eastern Cuba should induce more significant weakening. The official
intensity forecast remains near or above the latest model consensus.

Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of
Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
there. It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew might
affect the remainder of the United States east coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 14.7N 75.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 15.7N 75.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 17.1N 75.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 18.8N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 20.6N 74.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 24.0N 75.6W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/0000Z 27.1N 76.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 30.1N 76.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[arlwx]

HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

...EYE OF MATTHEW PASSING OVER A NOAA BUOY IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 75.0W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San
Salvador, and Cat Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of the small eye of Hurricane
Matthew was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 75.0 West.
Matthew is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and
southwestern Haiti Monday night.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected
to remain a powerful hurricane through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). NOAA data buoy 42058 reported peak sustained winds
of 78 mph (126 km/h) with a gust to 98 mph (158 km/h) during the
past hour.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 943 mb (27.85 inches). NOAA
buoy 42058 recently reported a pressure of 957 mb (28.25 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
on Monday night, and eastern Cuba Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti Monday and
eastern Cuba by Monday night, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within
the warning area beginning on Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to reach the southeastern Bahamas Monday night with
hurricane conditions expected Tuesday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm
watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches across southern Haiti and the southwestern portion
of the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of
40 inches. Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across eastern Jamaica, total
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12
inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Lower amounts are expected across the northeastern section of Haiti
and the Dominican Republic, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches
with isolated amounts around 5 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2
inches is expected over northern Colombia through tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
Central and southeastern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi

[arlwx]

HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...
...NOAA BUOY REPORTS MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 943 MB IN THE EYE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 74.9W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San
Salvador, and Cat Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 74.9 West. Matthew is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general northward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti tonight, and eastern
Cuba on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from NOAA
buoy 42058 is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
tonight, and eastern Cuba Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti later today and eastern
Cuba tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
beginning today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
reach the southeastern Bahamas early Tuesday with hurricane
conditions expected by late Tuesday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm
watch area in the Dominican Republic by late today.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches across southern Haiti and the southwestern portion
of the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of
40 inches. Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across eastern Jamaica, total
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12
inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Lower amounts are expected across the northeastern section of Haiti
and the Dominican Republic, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches
with isolated amounts around 5 inches.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
Central and southeastern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba,
and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi

[arlwx]

MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission that ended shortly
before 0600 UTC did not find flight-level or surface winds as high
as reported during the previous flight yesterday afternoon. It is
not clear from microwave imagery if the reduction in winds is the
result of an eyewall replacement. There was no evidence of a double
wind maximum in the aircraft data, but the crew reported that the
eyewall was open to the southwest. Using a blend of the aircraft
data and recent satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity
has been reduced to 115 kt for this advisory. The center of Matthew
has recently passed over NOAA buoy 42058 in the central Caribbean
Sea, which reported a minimum pressure of 943 mb and light winds
around 0650 UTC.

Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is moving northward
or 360/5 kt. The hurricane is expected to move generally northward
around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the
west-central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and little
change was needed to the NHC forecast through 48 hours. Once
Matthew moves near the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, it is
forecast to turn northwestward or north-northwestward in
southeasterly flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level
low/trough over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern
Caribbean Sea. The model guidance is in relatively good agreement
through 72 hours, but begin to diverge by days 4 and 5. The UKMET
which was previously the western outlier, has shifted eastward this
cycle, and is now close to the GFS. The 0000 UTC ECMWF trended
westward and that model is now along the western edge of the
guidance envelope. The NHC track has been nudged westward at days
4 and 5, and lies close to the GFS and UKMET solutions. This is a
bit west of the model consensus since the higher quality models
are on that side of the guidance envelope.

Matthew is forecast to remain in low shear and over warm water
while it moves northward toward the Greater Antilles. Some
restrengthening is possible, but fluctuations in intensity are
likely due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict. Some
weakening is forecast when the hurricane interacts with land in a
couple of days, however Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane throughout much of the forecast period.

Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of
Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible hurricane
impacts there. It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew
might affect the remainder of the United States east coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 15.2N 74.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 16.2N 74.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 17.9N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 19.7N 74.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 21.4N 74.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 24.6N 75.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 27.6N 76.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 30.8N 77.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown