ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#101 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:08 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
900 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...9 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS AND STORM SURGE SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...

A wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h) was recently reported at Hilton
Head Airport in South Carolina. A private weather station at Tybee
Island, Georgia, recently reported a wind gust of 64 mph (104
km/h). Wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph (80 to 95 km/h) continue across
much of the Jacksonville metropolitan area.

Water levels remain high along much of the St. John's River, with 3
to 4.4 feet of storm surge inundation reported at the Racy Point,
Red Bay Point, and I-295 Bridge tide gauges.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 80.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF ST. SIMONS ISLAND GEORGIA
ABOUT 55 MI...80 KM ENE OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#102 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:00 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...10 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...RISING WATER LEVELS EXPECTED ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

A wind gust of 50 mph (80 km/h) was recently reported at Savannah
Georgia. NOAA buoy 41008, located about 45 miles (75 km) southeast
of Savannah, recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h)
and a wind gust of 58 mph (94 km/h). Sustained winds of 35 to 40
mph (55 to 65 km/h) and gusts of 50 to 60 mph (80 to 95 km/h)
continue across much of the Jacksonville metropolitan area.

Water levels remain high along much of the St. John's River, with 3
to 4.3 feet of storm surge inundation reported at the Racy Point,
Red Bay Point, and I-295 Bridge tide gauges. About 0.5 ft of storm
surge inundation was reported at Ft. Pulaski, Georgia, near
Savannah, and these water levels are expected to rise with the
approach of the next high tide.


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 80.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF ST. SIMONS ISLAND GEORGIA
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SSE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#103 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:59 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...EYE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUING NORTHWARD JUST OFF OF THE
COAST OF GEORGIA...
...STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUES IN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 80.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from
north of Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* north of Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 80.5 West. Matthew is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward toward the
north-northeast and then to the northeast is expected on Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move
near or over the coast of Georgia through tonight, near or over the
coast of South Carolina later tonight and Saturday, and near the
coast of southern North Carolina on Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane while the center is near
the coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). NOAA buoy 41008 located off of the Georgia coast recently
reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 72
mph (115 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area in Georgia tonight, and spread
northward elsewhere within the warning area through Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions in northeastern Florida should subside
tonight.

Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by Saturday night or
Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected by Saturday
morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina,
including portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina...
5 to 7 ft
Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the
Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the
South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from the
Volusia/Brevard county line, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from
eastern Georgia into eastern North Carolina and southeast
Virginia...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.
This rainfall may result in life threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Rains will continue to diminish across northern Florida
tonight with additional amounts up to an inch possible.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible near the South
Carolina coast for the remainder of tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few
days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast
through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

Coastal Doppler radar data this evening indicate that Matthew is
gradually becoming less organized. The eyewall has broken open
with the remaining deep convection in a band just north of the
center, and there is now little precipitation in the southeastern
quadrant. A combination of radar winds and earlier aircraft data
suggests that the intensity has decreased slightly since the last
advisory, so the initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt.

The initial motion is now 010/10 kt. During the next 36 hours,
Matthew should turn more northeastward as it moves along the
southern edge of a mid-latitude trough. The forecast track, which
lies in the center of the track guidance envelope, has the center
moving near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina during the next
12-18 hours, then near the North Carolina coast from 18-36 hours.
While this occurs, the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong
vertical wind shear and to entrain dry air associated with an
approaching frontal system. This should result in a steady
weakening, and Matthew is now forecast to weaken to a tropical storm
by 36 hours in agreement with the SHIPS model. It is possible that
Matthew could merge with the frontal system at about 36 hours,
although none of the available guidance currently forecasts the
system to become an extratropical low.

The track and intensity forecasts become very low confidence after
36 hours due to a large diversity of model solutions. The GFDL and
HWRF forecast Matthew to turn northeastward and become an
extratropical low near the Canadian Atlantic provinces. The UKMET
moves Matthew eastward and eventually has it absorbed by Tropical
Storm Nicole. The ECMWF, NAVGEM, and Canadian models show a
southwestward turn, with the cyclone or it remnants near the Bahamas
by 120 hours. The GFS is between the UKMET and ECMWF, showing
Matthew moving far enough to the east to interact with Nicole, then
turning southward. The new track forecast follows the previous
advisory in showing a southward/southwestward turn similar to the
ECMWF, but is east of the previous track due to an overall eastward
trend in the guidance. Regarding the intensity, the GFS suggests
that Matthew could decay to a remnant low by 120 hours, while the
ECMWF suggests the system could still be a tropical cyclone. Either
way, continued weakening is likely due to shear and dry air
entrainment, and the official forecast calls for Matthew to weaken
to a depression by 96 hours.

Due to the degradation of the radar signature of Matthew, the
hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will no longer be issued.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. We have been very fortunate that Matthew's strongest winds have
remained a short distance offshore of the Florida and Georgia coasts
thus far, but this should not be a reason to let down our guard.
Only a small deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring
these winds onshore. The western eyewall of Matthew, which contains
hurricane-force winds, is expected to move over or very near the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight and Friday.

2. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and occupants
of high-rise buildings along the coast are at particular risk of
strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will average
one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

3. The water hazards remain, even if the core of Matthew remains
offshore. These include the danger of life-threatening inundation
from storm surge, as well as inland flooding from heavy rains from
Florida to North Carolina.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 31.2N 80.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 32.5N 79.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 33.6N 77.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 33.9N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 33.0N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 30.0N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 27.5N 74.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 26.0N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#104 Postby arlwx » Sat Oct 08, 2016 2:20 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...EYE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING DUE NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...
...STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRING IN SOUTH CAROLINA, FLORIDA, AND
GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 80.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF HILTON HEAD SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* North of Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 80.6
West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn
toward toward the north-northeast and then to the northeast is
expected by this afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will move near or over the coast of South Carolina this
morning, and be near the coast of southern North Carolina by
tonight.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane while the center is near
the coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 41008 located off of the Georgia coast
recently reported sustained winds of 63 mph (102 km/h) and a wind
gust of 78 mph (126 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds are now
occurring along the coast of South Carolina from the Savannah River
northeastward to Charleston.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 955 mb (28.20 inches). Buoy 41008 recently reported a
pressure of 957 mb (28.26 inches) inside the northwestern portion of
Matthew's eye.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina
this morning, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning area
through today. Tropical storm conditions in northeastern Florida
should subside later this morning.

Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday
morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later this morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina,
including portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina...
5 to 7 ft
Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the
Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the
South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from the
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from
eastern Georgia into eastern North Carolina and southeast
Virginia...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.
This rainfall may result in life threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Nearly 14 inches of rainfall has been measured thus far
at Hunter Army Airfield in Savannah, Georgia.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible near the South
Carolina coast through this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few
days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast
through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#105 Postby arlwx » Sat Oct 08, 2016 2:22 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
300 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...3 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...NORTHERN EYEWALL WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MOVING ONSHORE
HILTON HEAD ISLAND AND PRITCHARDS ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA...

A wind gust of 65 mph (104 km/h) was recently measured by NOAA
buoy 41033, located just offshore of Pritchards Island, South
Carolina. A wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently reported
at the airport on Hilton Head Island, South Carolina.

Water levels remain high along much of the St. Johns River, with
3.3 feet of storm surge inundation reported at the Racy Point
tide gauge. About 4.0 ft of storm surge inundation was reported at
Ft. Pulaski, Georgia, near Savannah, and 3.2 ft of storm surge
inundation has been reported at the Port of Charleston, South
Carolina.

SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 80.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM S OF HILTON HEAD SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#106 Postby arlwx » Sat Oct 08, 2016 3:01 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
400 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...4 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MOVING ONSHORE HILTON HEAD ISLAND AND
PRITCHARDS ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA...

A wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) was recently was recently reported
at the airport on Beaufort, South Carolina.

Water levels remain high along much of the St. Johns River, with
3.0 feet of storm surge inundation reported at the Racy Point
tide gauge. About 4.8 ft of storm surge inundation was reported at
Ft. Pulaski, Georgia, near Savannah, and 3.5 ft of storm surge
inundation has been reported at the Port of Charleston, South
Carolina.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 80.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF HILTON HEAD SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#107 Postby arlwx » Sat Oct 08, 2016 3:55 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF MATTHEW LASHING HILTON HEAD ISLAND AND
PRITCHARDS ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...
...STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRING IN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 80.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All tropical cyclone warnings have been discontinued south of
Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars, and Air Force Reserve and
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, near latitude 32.0 North, longitude
80.5 West. Matthew is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph
(19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this
morning. A turn toward the northeast is expected by this afternoon.
On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move near or over
the coast of South Carolina this morning, and be near the coast of
southern North Carolina by tonight.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts.
Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is
expected to remain a hurricane while the center is near the coasts
of South Carolina and North Carolina.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). Hurricane-force wind gusts are now occurring along
the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina from Tybee Island, Georgia,
to Pritchards Island, South Carolina.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by Air Force Reserve
and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft was 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina
this morning, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning area
through today.

Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday
morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later this morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Altamaha Sound, GA, to Edisto Beach, SC...6 to 9 ft
Edisto Beach, SC to Cape Fear, NC...5 to 7 ft
Cape Fear to Duck, NC, including portions of the Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Cape
Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening
inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck,
North Carolina, including portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches near and east of Interstate 95 in South Carolina and
North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.
Matthew is expected to produce 2 to 6 inches of rain over central
South Carolina, western North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia.
Additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected over
eastern Georgia. In all of these areas rainfall may result in
life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two will be possible today along
the coast of North Carolina and northern South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will
spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#108 Postby arlwx » Sat Oct 08, 2016 6:38 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

Coastal Doppler weather radars this morning continue to depict a
40-nmi wide eye with a band of intense convection located in the
northwestern quadrant along the coasts of extreme eastern Georgia
and South Carolina from Tybee Island northeast to near the entrance
of Charleston Harbor. Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance wind
data, along with Doppler radar velocity data and surface
observations, indicate that hurricane-force wind gusts in excess of
80 kt are occuring along the aforementioned coastal areas. Based on
700-mb maximum flight-level winds of 108 kt, peak SFMR surface winds
of 83 kt, and Doppler velocities of 100-102 kt between 8000-11000
ft, the initial intensity will remain at 90 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 015/10 kt. Matthew made a northward
jog since the previous advisory, but now appears to moving
north-northeastward based on the latest radar and recon fixes.
However, the more northward motion earlier has increased the
possibility that the center of Matthew's eye will move onshore the
coast of South Carolina later this morning or early afternoon as the
cyclone turns northeastward ahead of a strong shortwave trough.
Regardless of whether or not the center makes landfall,
hurricane-force winds in the northern eyewall will lash much of the
coast of South Carolina today as the center moves to a position just
east of Charleston Harbor in about 12 hours. After that, the models
are in fair agreement on Matthew turning eastward through 36 hours
as the cyclone briefly gets captured by the aforementioned shortwave
trough. However, by 48 hours and beyond, Matthew is expected to
turn southeastward and southward as the cyclone moves around the
eastern periphery of an amplifying ridge located east of Florida.
In the 48-72 hours time period, some erratic motion could occur as
Matthew and Tropical Storm Nicole briefly undergo some binary
interaction before separating by 96 hours. The official forecast
track closely follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The vertical wind shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt
by 12 hours, which should induce steady weakening. At 48 hours and
beyond, the SHIPS model is forecasting the shear to increase to
more than 40 kt, resulting in rapid weakening to remnant low status
by 120 hours. However, the shear forecast appears to be overdone
since both the GFS and ECMWF models indicate that Matthew and Nicole
will both be moving underneath a narrow 200 mb ridge axis, which
should act to reduce the shear across the two cyclones in the 48-96
hour period. The official intensity forecast closely follows the
consensus model IVCN, and maintains Matthew as a tropical cyclone
throughout the forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The western eyewall of Matthew, which contains hurricane-force
winds, is now moving over the northern coast of Georgia and
the southern coast of South Carolina and should spread up the coast
during the day.

2. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and occupants
of high-rise buildings along the coast are at particular risk of
strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will average
one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

3. The water hazards remain, even if the core of Matthew remains
offshore. These include the danger of life-threatening inundation
from storm surge, as well as inland flooding from heavy rains from
Florida to North Carolina.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 32.0N 80.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 32.9N 79.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 33.7N 77.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 33.4N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 32.6N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 29.0N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 26.0N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 25.0N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#109 Postby arlwx » Sat Oct 08, 2016 6:38 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
600 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...6 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...MATTHEW'S NORTHERN EYEWALL WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

A private weather station on Tybee Island, Georgia, recently
reported a wind gust of 93 mph (150 km/h), while another private
weather station in Beaufort, South Carolina, recorded a wind gust of
83 mph (133 km/h). A wind gust of 85 mph (137 km/h) was recently
measured at the airport on Hilton Head Island, South Carolina.

Water levels remain high along much of the St. Johns River, with
3.0 feet of storm surge inundation reported at the Racy Point
tide gauge. About 4.8 ft of storm surge inundation was reported at
Ft. Pulaski, Georgia, near Savannah, and 3.5 ft of storm surge
inundation has been reported at the Port of Charleston, South
Carolina.

SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 80.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF HILTON HEAD SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#110 Postby arlwx » Sat Oct 08, 2016 6:39 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
700 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...7 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A wind gust of 87 mph (141 km/h) was recently reported at Hilton
Head Airport. An observing site on Tybee Island, Georgia, recently
reported a wind gust of 70 mph (113 km/h), and a wind gust of 65 mph
(105 km/h) was measured at the Folly Beach Pier, South Carolina,
during the last hour.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 80.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#111 Postby arlwx » Sat Oct 08, 2016 7:00 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 79.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars, and an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft, near latitude 32.5 North, longitude
79.8 West. Matthew is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph
(19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today.
On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to
move near or over the coast of South Carolina today, and be
near the coast of southern North Carolina by tonight.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane while the center is near
the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). A private weather station at Folly Beach reported
a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). Strong wind gusts are also
occurring well inland in South Carolina. Orangeburg recently
reported a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina
this morning, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning area
through today.

Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday
morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later this morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Altamaha Sound, GA, to Edisto Beach, SC...6 to 9 ft
Edisto Beach, SC to Cape Fear, NC...5 to 7 ft
Cape Fear to Duck, NC, including portions of the Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Cape
Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening
inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck,
North Carolina, including portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches near and east of Interstate 95 in South Carolina and
North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.
Matthew is expected to produce 2 to 6 inches of rain over central
South Carolina, western North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia.
Additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected over
eastern Georgia. In all of these areas rainfall may result in
life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two will be possible today along
the coast of North Carolina and northern South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will
spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#112 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2016 8:01 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
900 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...9 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
......STRONG WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA...

A wind gust to 71 mph (115 km/h) has been observed at Beaufort
Marine Corps Air Station. A private weather station on the Isle of
Palms Pier has reported sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h).
Strong wind gusts are also occuring well inland. A wind gust to 61
mph (98 km/h) was recently reported at Shaw Air Force Base in
Sumter, South Carolina.


SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 79.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#113 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2016 8:59 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1000 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...10 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTH
AND NORTH CAROLINA...

A wind gust to 70 mph (113 km/h) has recently been reported at
Folly Beach Pier. The official observing site in Charleston, South
Carolina, has reported a wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) within the
past hour. Strong wind gusts are also occuring well inland. A wind
gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported at Darlington, South
Carolina, and a wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) has been observed in
Fayetteville, North Carolina.


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 79.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

$$
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#114 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2016 9:58 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...MATTHEW MAKES LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF MCCLELLANVILLE SOUTH
CAROLINA...
...SERIOUS INLAND FLOODING EVENT UNFOLDING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 79.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 79.4 West. Matthew is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of South
Carolina today, and be near the coast of southern North Carolina by
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
Matthew is expected to remain near hurricane strength while the
center is near the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). Sustained winds of 53 mph (85 km/h) with a gust to 69 mph
(111 km/h) has been observed at a private weather station near
Winyah Bay, South Carolina, within the past hour. A wind gust to 58
mph (93 km/h) was recently reported at Charleston, South Carolina.
Strong wind gusts are also occurring well inland in North and South
Carolina. Laurinberg, North Carolina, recently reported a wind gust
of 55 mph (89 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 967
mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina
this afternoon, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning
area through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday
morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Charleston, SC to Cape Fear, NC...5 to 7 ft
Cape Fear to Duck, NC, including portions of the Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's
center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly
recede today.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Bogue Inlet,
North Carolina as well as from Cape Lookout to Salvo, North Carolina
including portions of the Pamlico Sound. There is the possibility
of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from Bogue
Inlet to Cape Lookout, North Carolina and from Salvo to Duck, North
Carolina including portions of the Albemarle Sound. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches near and east of Interstate 95 in South Carolina and
North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.
Matthew is expected to produce 2 to 6 inches of rain over central
South Carolina, western North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia.
In all of these areas rainfall may result in life-threatening
flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through early
tonight along the coast of North Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will
spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

Aircraft reconnaissance and land-based radar data indicate that the
center of circulation has crossed the coast of South Carolina near
the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge.

The cloud pattern associated with Matthew is beginning to acquire
some extratropical characteristics. The wind field is expanding, and
the area of heavy rains is now northwest of the center. Data from
NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft around 1200 UTC indicated
that the surface winds have decreased to around 65 kt. (Very recent
SFMR winds of 78 kt were taken over shallow water where the
instrument is affected by shoaling and provides unreliable output).
Most of the global models, primarily the GFS and the UKMET, forecast
that Matthew will become entangled with a cold front, and the new
NHC forecast calls for Matthew to become absorbed within this
frontal system within the next couple of days. During the next 12
to 24 hours, while the Matthew is hugging the US coast and taking on
a more extratropical structure, the tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to expand and strengthen in the western semicircle and
continue to affect portions of the coast within the warning area.

Matthew is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow and is
moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 10 kt. The steering
pattern is forecast to persist for the next day or two, and on this
basis the NHC forecast moves the cyclone eastward until it becomes
absorbed. Previous NHC official forecasts followed the EMCWF in
keeping the cyclone a distinct entity longer and looping it
southward, but even if this the case the system will likely be only
a broad area of low pressure.

Due to the degradation of Matthew's radar signature, the hourly
Tropical Cyclone Updates will not longer be issued.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds
will shift to the back side of the circulation. These winds will
persist over land even after the center begins to move away from the
coastline, and has also increased the threat of storm surge in
portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks. Please see the
Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the
areas at risk.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 33.0N 79.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 33.6N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 34.0N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 34.0N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1200Z 33.0N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#115 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:58 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...TORRENTIAL RAINS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
...SERIOUS INLAND FLOODING EVENT UNFOLDING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 79.0W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning south of Edisto Beach has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Edisto Beach to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 79.0 West. Matthew is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of South
Carolina this afternoon, and be near the coast of southern North
Carolina by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
Matthew is expected to remain near hurricane strength while the
center is near the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). A wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h) was measured at a
Myrtle Beach, and a gust to 69 mph (11 km/h) was observed at
Charleston.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was
972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area in South Carolina this afternoon, and
spread northward elsewhere within the warning area through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday
morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Charleston, SC to Cape Fear, NC...5 to 7 ft
Cape Fear to Duck, NC, including portions of the Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's
center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly
recede today.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Bogue Inlet,
North Carolina as well as from Cape Lookout to Salvo, North Carolina
including portions of the Pamlico Sound. There is the possibility
of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from Bogue
Inlet to Cape Lookout, North Carolina and from Salvo to Duck, North
Carolina including portions of the Albemarle Sound. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches near and east of Interstate 95 in South Carolina and
North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.
Matthew is expected to produce 2 to 6 inches of rain over central
South Carolina, western North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia.
In all of these areas rainfall may result in life-threatening
flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through early
tonight along the coast of North Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#116 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2016 3:54 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...TORRENTIAL RAINS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE
MATTHEW HUGS THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 78.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from South Santee River southward has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of South of Santee River to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 78.2 West. Matthew is
moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue tonight and early Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Matthew will be near the coast of
southern North Carolina by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
Matthew is expected to remain near hurricane strength while the
center is near the coasts of North Carolina.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) mainly
over water to the east of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Multiple private weather
stations along the coast of South Carolina near Myrtle Beach have
recently reported hurricane-force wind gusts.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force aircraft data
is 977 mb (28.85 inches). CORMP buoy 41024 near the center also
reported a minimum pressure of 977.8 mb (28.87 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area this afternoon, and spread northward
elsewhere within the warning area through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday
morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including
portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft

Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's
center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly
recede today.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Murrells Inlet, South Carolina to Salvo,
North Carolina including portions of the Pamlico Sound. There is
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours from Salvo to Duck, North Carolina including portions of the
Albemarle Sound. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches from northeast South Carolina into northeast North
Carolina and southeast Virginia, with possible isolated totals of 20
inches possible. This rainfall may result in life-threatening
flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon along
the coast of North Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with
Hurricane Matthew is gradually losing tropical characteristics
while it becomes embedded within a mid-latitude trough. The
hurricane is accompanied by a very extensive area of intense
rains mostly located north of the center. Recent data from an Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the winds are still 65
kt, and these winds are limited to a small area over water east of
the center. The low-level circulation is becoming separated from the
mid-level circulation due to strong shear. Most of the global
models, primarily the GFS and the UKMET, forecast that Matthew will
become entangled with a cold front, and the NHC forecast calls for
Matthew to weaken and become absorbed within this frontal system
within the next couple of days.

Fixes from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is moving
toward the east-northeast or 060 degrees at 10 kt while hugging the
coast of South Carolina. During the next 12 hours or so, while the
Matthew is hugging the US coast and taking on a more extratropical
structure, the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to expand and
strengthen in the western semicircle and continue to affect portions
of the coast within the warning area.

Since Matthew is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow
and the steering pattern is forecast to persist for the next day or
two, the NHC forecast moves the cyclone eastward or east-
southeastward until it becomes absorbed.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds
will shift to the back side of the circulation. These winds will
persist over land even after the center begins to move away from the
coastline, and have also increased the threat of storm surge in
portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks. Please see the
Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the
areas at risk.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 33.8N 78.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 34.5N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 34.0N 71.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1800Z 33.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#117 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2016 6:55 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...CENTER OF MATTHEW NOW EAST OF CAPE FEAR...
...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 77.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of South of Santee River to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 77.3 West. Matthew is
moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue tonight and early Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Matthew will be near the coast of
southern North Carolina by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. While Matthew is expected to remain near hurricane strength
while the center is near the North Carolina coast, the system could
become a post-tropical cyclone later tonight or on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) mainly
over water southwest of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). During the past few hours,
Myrtle Beach has reported a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h) and
CORMP buoy 41024 has reported a wind gust of 67 mph (108 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force aircraft data
is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area this evening, and spread northward
elsewhere within the warning area through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday
morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including
portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft

Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's
center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly
recede today.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Murrells Inlet, South Carolina to Salvo,
North Carolina including portions of the Pamlico Sound. There is
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours from Salvo to Duck, North Carolina including portions of the
Albemarle Sound. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches from northeast South Carolina into northeast North
Carolina and southeast Virginia, with possible isolated totals of 20
inches possible. This rainfall is leading to record-breaking
flooding over portions of eastern North Carolina, and it may result
in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding elsewhere across the
region.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this evening along
the coast of North Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#118 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2016 9:48 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATER TONIGHT
AS MATTHEW MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast
north of Cape Lookout to Duck, including the Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.

All warnings are discontinued west of Little River Inlet on the
South Carolina-North Carolina border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 76.5 West. Matthew is
moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue tonight. An eastward motion is
expected Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Matthew should move near or south of the coast of North
Carolina tonight and east of the North Carolina coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight, although
Matthew could become a post-tropical cyclone later tonight.
Weakening is expected Sunday and Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly
to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust to 81 mph
(130 km/h) was recently reported by a private weather station at
Federal Point, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on a combination of
aircraft and surface data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the hurricane warning area tonight and then subside
during the day on Sunday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina later tonight and
Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected during the
next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including
portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft

Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's
center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly
recede today.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Murrells Inlet, South Carolina to Salvo,
North Carolina including portions of the Pamlico Sound. There is
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours from Salvo to Duck, North Carolina including portions of the
Albemarle Sound. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches from northeast South Carolina into northeast North
Carolina and southeast Virginia, with possible isolated totals of 20
inches possible. This rainfall is producing record-breaking flooding
over portions of eastern North Carolina, and it may result in
life-threatening flooding and flash flooding elsewhere across the
region.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven




HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

A combination of satellite imagery, aircraft data, and coastal
surface and radar observations indicate that Matthew is undergoing
extratropical transition, and there is barely enough convection
near the center to keep the system classified as a hurricane.
However, SFMR data from an Air Force show hurricane-force winds to
the southwest of the center, and based on this and the marginal
convection Matthew remains a hurricane for this advisory. The
cyclone is likely to become post-tropical in 12 hours or less and
become an extratropical frontal low by 24 hours. As this happens
though, a band of strong winds forming in the western semicircle
near eastern North Carolina and the adjacent waters should keep the
intensity near 65 kt for the next 12 hours or so. After that,
Matthew should weaken and become absorbed within the frontal system
between 48-72 hours. The new intensity forecast is mostly an update
of the previous forecast.

The initial motion is now 070/12. Matthew is embedded in the
mid-latitude westerly flow and this steering pattern is forecast to
move the system east-northeastward and then eastward until
dissipation. The new forecast track is a little south of the
previous track for the first 12 hours and a little north of it
after that time.

The forecast strength of the band of winds over the eastern North
Carolina coastal area requires a northward extension of the
hurricane watch. Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia
are being handled by non-tropical wind warnings.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds
are shifting to the west side of the circulation. The winds are
expected to increase significantly over the coastal areas of
eastern North Carolina during the next several hours, and during
the next 12 hours there is the possibility of near-hurricane force
winds over the North Carolina Outer Banks, as well as the Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds. There is also an increased threat of storm
surge in these areas. Please see the Prototype Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 34.1N 76.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 34.6N 74.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 10/0000Z 34.4N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1200Z 33.8N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0000Z 33.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#119 Postby arlwx » Sun Oct 09, 2016 3:16 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

...STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS MATTHEW
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS...
...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 75.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...27 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 75.8
West. Matthew is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (27 km/h).
This motion is expected to continue early this morning, followed
by a turn toward the east-northeast by this afternoon. An eastward
motion is expected by tonight and Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Matthew should move near or just south of the coast of
North Carolina this morning and east of the North Carolina coast by
this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
several hours, although Matthew should become a post-tropical
cyclone later this morning. Weakening is expected by this afternoon
and Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly
to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). A wind gust to 69 mph (111
km/h) was recently reported at Elizabeth City, North Carolina, and a
wind gust to 59 mph (94 km/h) was reported at Morehead City, North
Carolina, during the past hour.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on a combination of
aircraft data and surface observations is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the hurricane warning area this morning and then
subside by this afternoon.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina later this morning,
with tropical storm conditions continuing well inland for the
next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft

Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's
center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly
recede today.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina,
including portions of the Pamlico Sound. For a depiction of areas
at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches from northeast South Carolina into northeast North
Carolina and southeast Virginia, with possible isolated totals of 20
inches possible. This rainfall is producing record-breaking flooding
over portions of eastern North Carolina, and it may result in
life-threatening flooding and flash flooding elsewhere across the
region.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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arlwx
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#120 Postby arlwx » Sun Oct 09, 2016 3:59 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS MATTHEW
MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS...
...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 75.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Little River Inlet to south of Cape Fear
has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning from Cape Fear to
Surf City has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Matthew was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface
observations near latitude 34.9 North, longitude 75.1 West. Matthew
is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion
toward the east-northeast or east is expected for the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew should pass
just south of the coast of North Carolina this morning, and then
move well east of the North Carolina coast by this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly
to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). A sustained wind of 61 mph
(98 km/h) and a gust to 79 mph (127 km/h) were recently measured by
a National Ocean Service instrument at Duck, North Carolina. A wind
gust of 68 mph (109 km/h) was reported at Elizabeth City, North
Carolina, and a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported at the
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station near Morehead City, North
Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the
warning area this morning and then subside by this afternoon.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
this morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina,
including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across southeast Virginia and
extreme eastern North Carolina through this morning. Storm total
rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches,
continues to result in life threatening flooding and flash flooding
across the region.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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