ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#41 Postby arlwx » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:57 am

MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission that ended shortly
before 0600 UTC did not find flight-level or surface winds as high
as reported during the previous flight yesterday afternoon. It is
not clear from microwave imagery if the reduction in winds is the
result of an eyewall replacement. There was no evidence of a double
wind maximum in the aircraft data, but the crew reported that the
eyewall was open to the southwest. Using a blend of the aircraft
data and recent satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity
has been reduced to 115 kt for this advisory. The center of Matthew
has recently passed over NOAA buoy 42058 in the central Caribbean
Sea, which reported a minimum pressure of 943 mb and light winds
around 0650 UTC.

Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is moving northward
or 360/5 kt. The hurricane is expected to move generally northward
around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the
west-central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and little
change was needed to the NHC forecast through 48 hours. Once
Matthew moves near the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, it is
forecast to turn northwestward or north-northwestward in
southeasterly flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level
low/trough over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern
Caribbean Sea. The model guidance is in relatively good agreement
through 72 hours, but begin to diverge by days 4 and 5. The UKMET
which was previously the western outlier, has shifted eastward this
cycle, and is now close to the GFS. The 0000 UTC ECMWF trended
westward and that model is now along the western edge of the
guidance envelope. The NHC track has been nudged westward at days
4 and 5, and lies close to the GFS and UKMET solutions. This is a
bit west of the model consensus since the higher quality models
are on that side of the guidance envelope.

Matthew is forecast to remain in low shear and over warm water
while it moves northward toward the Greater Antilles. Some
restrengthening is possible, but fluctuations in intensity are
likely due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict. Some
weakening is forecast when the hurricane interacts with land in a
couple of days, however Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane throughout much of the forecast period.

Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of
Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible hurricane
impacts there. It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew
might affect the remainder of the United States east coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 15.2N 74.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 16.2N 74.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 17.9N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 19.7N 74.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 21.4N 74.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 24.6N 75.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 27.6N 76.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 30.8N 77.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#42 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:57 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 74.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San
Salvador, and Cat Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 74.9 West. Matthew is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general northward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and
southwestern Haiti tonight, and eastern Cuba on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through early Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 42058, located about 40 miles (70 km)
south of the center of Matthew, recently reported a sustained wind
of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
tonight, and eastern Cuba Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti later today and eastern
Cuba tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
beginning today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
reach the southeastern Bahamas early Tuesday with hurricane
conditions expected by late Tuesday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm
watch area in the Dominican Republic by late today.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches across southern Haiti and the southwestern
portion of the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of
40 inches. Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across eastern Jamaica, total
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12
inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Lower amounts are expected across the northeastern section of Haiti
and the Dominican Republic, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches
with isolated amounts around 5 inches.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
Central and southeastern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba,
and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

The latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into Matthew
found peak flight-level winds of 124 kt at 10,000 feet and a peak
SFMR wind of 122 kt in the northeastern eyewall around 12Z. Based
on these data, the initial intensity is set to 120 kt for this
advisory. The aircraft reported an eyewall with a diameter of
14 n mi that is open to the southwest and the latest central
pressure based on dropsonde data is 941 mb. Little overall change
in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, with the
exception of some weakening due to possible land interaction with
Haiti and eastern Cuba. However, there could be fluctuations in
intensity due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict.
While Matthew is expected to be a little weaker once it moves into
the Bahamas as the shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat
content decreases a little, it is expected to remain a dangerous
hurricane through the next 5 days.

Matthew is moving due north at around 5 kt, and the hurricane should
continue moving generally northward for the next 36 to 48 hours
around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
During this time, the track guidance is in generally good agreement
and the NHC forecast has been nudged a little to the east toward the
consensus aids and the center of the guidance envelope. After that
time, the track foreast becomes more complicated, with the models
continuing to show a lack of consistency in the evolution of the
ridge rebuilding north of Matthew in 3 to 5 days, leading to a large
amount of along and cross track spread at these times. The ECMWF
and UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,
with the other models farther east. The new NHC track is a bit left
of the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a
little left of the latest multi-model consensus.

While all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew
east of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global
ensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out. In
addition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew
could affect the remainder of the U.S. east coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 15.6N 75.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 17.0N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 18.9N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 20.8N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 22.6N 74.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 28.5N 77.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#43 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:54 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING
RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 75.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San
Salvador, and Cat Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 75.0 West. Matthew is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is
forecast to continue through Wednesday with an increase in forward
speed expected tonight. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti tonight, move near eastern
Cuba late Tuesday, and move near or over portions of the
southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected
to remain a powerful hurricane through Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Haiti
tonight, eastern Cuba Tuesday, and the southeastern Bahamas late
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
Haiti this afternoon, eastern Cuba tonight, and the southeastern
Bahamas early Tuesday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica and along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
beginning today.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm
watch area in the Dominican Republic by late today.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches
Southeastern Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches,
isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
Central and southeastern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba,
and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#44 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:52 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN
PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 74.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San
Salvador, and Cat Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 74.8 West. Matthew is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is
forecast to continue through Wednesday with an increase in forward
speed expected tonight. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti tonight, move near eastern
Cuba late Tuesday, and move near or over portions of the
southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Haiti
tonight, eastern Cuba Tuesday, and the southeastern Bahamas late
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
Haiti this afternoon, eastern Cuba tonight, and the southeastern
Bahamas early Tuesday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica and along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
beginning today.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm
watch area in the Dominican Republic by late today.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches
Southeastern Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches,
isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
Central and southeastern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba,
and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#45 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:33 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF HAITI TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 74.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San
Salvador, and Cat Island, and a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern
Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San
Salvador, and Cat Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of
Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 74.7 West. Matthew is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a
faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. A turn
toward the north-northwest is forecast on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern
Haiti tonight, move near eastern Cuba late Tuesday, and move near or
over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night
and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Haiti
tonight, eastern Cuba Tuesday, the southeastern Bahamas late
Tuesday, and the central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to continue spreading across Haiti this
evening, reach eastern Cuba tonight, the southeastern Bahamas early
Tuesday, and the central Bahamas Tuesday night, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and
along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the
warning area soon.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas on
Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Wednesday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba and the Turks and Caicos Islands by Tuesday night with tropical
storm conditions possible on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches,
isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba,
and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

Matthew's structure has not changed much today. The most recent Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found peak SFMR winds of 124
kt on their last pass through the northeastern eyewall, and a peak
flight-level wind of 118 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the
initial intensity is held at 120 kt for this advisory. The central
pressure has been steady around 940 mb for much of the day.
Matthew's satellite presentation remains impressive, with a 15 n mi
wide eye surrounded by convective tops of -80C or colder and
excellent outflow, especially poleward. Little change in intensity
is expected during the next couple of days, with the exception of
some possible weakening due to land interaction with Haiti and
eastern Cuba. However, there could be fluctuations in intensity due
to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict. While Matthew is
expected to be a little weaker once it moves into the Bahamas as the
shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat content decreases a
little, it is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through the
next 5 days, as shown by the global models. The new NHC intensity
forecast is close to or a little above the latest intensity
consensus through 4 days and is closest to the GFDL model at day 5.

Matthew is now moving a little to the east of due north, or 010/06.
The short term track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the
hurricane will move generally northward for the next 24 to 36 hours
around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The
new NHC track forecast during this time has been nudged eastward
toward the latest multi-model consensus aids, and continues to show
the core of the dangerous hurricane moving near or over the
southwestern peninsula of Haiti tonight and near or over eastern
Cuba on Tuesday.

At 48 hours and beyond, the GFS has trended sharply westward, and
now is in agreement with the UKMET and ECMWF in showing the western
extent of the Atlantic subtropical ridge nosing north of Matthew
across the Carolinas in 3-4 days. This results in Matthew taking a
more northwesterly track across the Bahamas, and closer to the
Florida peninsula during this time. The UKMET is farthest west,
with a track over the east coast of Florida and into South Carolina
in 4-5 days. The GFS, ECMWF, and the GFDL model are a little
farther east and remain close to but offshore of Florida. The GFDL
and GFS are close to southeastern North Carolina by day 5, while the
ECMWF is slower. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
significantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend. While there
remains significant uncertainty in the track of Matthew in the long
range, the threat to Florida and the southeastern U.S. coast has
increased.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued
sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast. At a minimum, very dangerous
beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east
coast later this week and weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 16.3N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 17.4N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.2N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.0N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 22.8N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 33.0N 78.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#46 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:04 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MATTHEW IS STILL A 140-MPH HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF HAITI TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 74.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San
Salvador, and Cat Island, and a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern
Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San
Salvador, and Cat Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of
Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 74.6 West. Matthew is moving
toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn back
toward the north at a faster forward speed is expected later tonight
through Tuesday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast
on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
approach southwestern Haiti tonight, move near eastern Cuba late
Tuesday, and move near or over portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Haiti
tonight, eastern Cuba Tuesday, the southeastern Bahamas late
Tuesday, and the central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to continue spreading across Haiti this
evening, reach eastern Cuba tonight, the southeastern Bahamas early
Tuesday, and the central Bahamas Tuesday night, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and
along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the
warning area soon.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas on
Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Wednesday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba and the Turks and Caicos Islands by Tuesday night with tropical
storm conditions possible on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches,
isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba,
and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#47 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:57 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MATTHEW HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY...
...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF HAITI TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 74.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 74.6 West. Matthew is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue tonight through Tuesday. A turn toward
the north-northwest is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti
tonight and Tuesday morning, move near eastern Cuba late Tuesday,
and move near or over portions of the southeastern and central
Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew
is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through at
least Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Haiti
tonight, eastern Cuba Tuesday, the southeastern Bahamas late
Tuesday, and the central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to continue spreading across Haiti tonight,
eastern Cuba by early Tuesday morning, the southeastern Bahamas
early Tuesday, and the central Bahamas Tuesday night, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and
along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the
warning area tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas on
Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Wednesday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba and the Turks and Caicos Islands by Tuesday night with tropical
storm conditions possible on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 3 inches, isolated 6 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba,
and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this evening measured
two peak SFMR winds of 125 kt in the northeastern eyewall, along
with a peak flight-level wind of 129 kt. The lowest pressure
measured by a dropsonde has been 934 mb, down 6 mb since the
previous flight. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been
increased to 125 kt.

Matthew continues to move a little east of due north, or 010/07 kt.
There is no change to the previous short-term track forecast
reasoning. Matthew is expected to move northward around the western
periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours,
followed by a north-northwestward motion at 36 and 48 hours. That
portion of the new forecast track is essentially the same as the
previous advisory, bringing Matthew over the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti tonight and near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday. Beyond 48
hours, the GFS has again trended westward, and now lies closer to
the UKMET model track. This change might be related to the
mid-/upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, which is now forecast to split, with the northern portion
lifting out to the northeast and dissipating while the southern
portion cuts of into a low pressure system that drops southward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 36-48 hours. The new track
forecast has again been shifted westward closer to Florida, and lies
near a blend of the 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF model solutions.

Only slight weakening is expected during the next couple of days due
to Matthew interacting with the land masses of western Haiti and
eastern Cuba. After the hurricane emerges over the Atlantic waters
between Cuba and the Bahamas, low vertical wind shear and warm SSTs
of near 30C should help Matthew to recover some before southwesterly
wind shear increases by 96-120 hours and induces a faster rate of
weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically identical to
the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely tomorrow
morning for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum,
very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of
the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 16.9N 74.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.3N 74.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.0N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 23.4N 76.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 26.6N 78.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 30.0N 79.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 33.3N 77.6W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#48 Postby wzrgirl1 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:52 am

...Eye of category 4 Hurricane Matthew nearing the southwest
peninsula of Haiti...
...Life-threatening rain...wind...and storm surge spreading over
portions of Haiti...

Summary of 500 am EDT...0900 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...17.8n 74.4w
about 200 mi...320 km SW of cap Haitien Haiti
about 165 mi...270 km S of the eastern tip of Cuba
maximum sustained winds...145 mph...230 km/h
present movement...N or 5 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/h
minimum central pressure...934 mb...27.58 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

The government of the Bahamas has replaced the Hurricane Watch with
a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, long cay, and Ragged Island
* central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Jamaica
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. Tropical
storm and/or hurricane watches are likely for portions of the
Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your National meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am EDT (0900 utc), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 17.8 north, longitude 74.4 west. Matthew is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected by Wednesday, followed by a northwest
turn Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew
will pass near or over southwestern Haiti during the next few
hours, move near eastern Cuba later today, and move near or over
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and
Wednesday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane wind scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).

Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind: hurricane conditions are beginning to reach the southwestern
portion of Haiti and will spread northward today. Hurricane
conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today, the
southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, the central Bahamas on
Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across Haiti
today, eastern Cuba later this morning, the southeastern Bahamas
later today, and the central and northwestern Bahamas Tuesday night
and Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and
along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the
warning area today, and will spread northward into the Turks
and Caicos Islands tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in
Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later today.

Rainfall: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
the Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
northeastern Haiti and the northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

Storm surge: the combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
northern coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
the Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

Surf: swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the
Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory at 800 am EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/cangialosi
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#49 Postby wzrgirl1 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:56 am

...Eye of category 4 Hurricane Matthew nearing the southwest
peninsula of Haiti...
...Life-threatening rain...wind...and storm surge spreading over
portions of Haiti...

Summary of 500 am EDT...0900 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...17.8n 74.4w
about 200 mi...320 km SW of cap Haitien Haiti
about 165 mi...270 km S of the eastern tip of Cuba
maximum sustained winds...145 mph...230 km/h
present movement...N or 5 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/h
minimum central pressure...934 mb...27.58 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

The government of the Bahamas has replaced the Hurricane Watch with
a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, long cay, and Ragged Island
* central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Jamaica
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. Tropical
storm and/or hurricane watches are likely for portions of the
Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your National meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 am EDT (0900 utc), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 17.8 north, longitude 74.4 west. Matthew is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected by Wednesday, followed by a northwest
turn Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew
will pass near or over southwestern Haiti during the next few
hours, move near eastern Cuba later today, and move near or over
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and
Wednesday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane wind scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).

Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind: hurricane conditions are beginning to reach the southwestern
portion of Haiti and will spread northward today. Hurricane
conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today, the
southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, the central Bahamas on
Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across Haiti
today, eastern Cuba later this morning, the southeastern Bahamas
later today, and the central and northwestern Bahamas Tuesday night
and Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and
along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the
warning area today, and will spread northward into the Turks
and Caicos Islands tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in
Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later today.

Rainfall: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
the Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
northeastern Haiti and the northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

Storm surge: the combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
northern coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
the Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

Surf: swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the
Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory at 800 am EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/cangialosi
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#50 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:54 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MADE LANDFALL NEAR
LES ANGLAIS IN WESTERN HAITI AT 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 74.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM E OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Jamaica
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. Tropical
storm and/or hurricane watches are likely for portions of the
Florida peninsula and Florida Keys later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
inland Haiti near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 74.2 West. Matthew
made landfall near Les Anglais about 700 AM EDT (1100 UTC). The
hurricane is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. On this track the eye
of Matthew will be back over water in the Gulf of Gonave in the next
hour or so, and then move over the Windward Passage later this
morning. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected by
Wednesday, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. On the
forecast track, the eye of Matthew will move near eastern Cuba later
today, and move near or over portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern
Bahamas Wednesday night

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are already affecting the southwestern
portion of Haiti, and these conditions will spread northward today.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today,
the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, the central Bahamas on
Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across the
remainder of Haiti today, eastern Cuba later this morning, the
southeastern Bahamas later today, and the central and northwestern
Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and
along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the
warning area today, and will spread northward into the Turks
and Caicos Islands tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later today.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the
Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#51 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:04 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING OVER
THE GULF OF GONAVE AND IS HEADING FOR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 74.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNE OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Deerfield Beach, Florida to
the Volusia/Brevard county line.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Seven Mile Bridge in
the Florida Keys northward to south of Deerfield Beach, including
Lake Okeechobee

The government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti
* Seven Mile Bridge to south of Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
in the Gulf of Gonave near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 74.3 West.
Matthew is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). On this
track the eye of Matthew will move over the Windward Passage and
eastern Cuba today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected
by Wednesday, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. Matthew
is expected to move near or over portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern
Bahamas Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are already affecting the southwestern
portion of Haiti, and these conditions will spread northward today.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today,
the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, the central Bahamas on
Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across the
remainder of Haiti today, eastern Cuba later this morning, the
southeastern Bahamas later today, and the central and northwestern
Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions the Dominican
Republic within the warning area today, and will spread northward
into the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Thursday. Tropical storm condition are also
possible in the Florida tropical storm watch area by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches
Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to
7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the
Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

The eye of Hurricane Matthew was quite distinct when it made
landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti at 1100 UTC this morning,
but since that time the eye has become obscured on conventional
imagery. A reconnaissance plane measured SFMR winds of 118 kt
earlier today, but the entire area has not been sampled yet by the
plane. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 125 kt in
this advisory. Some slight weakening could occur today while Matthew
interacts with the high terrain of Cuba and Haiti, but the
environment is favorable for the hurricane to maintain category 4
status for the next 2 days. Some weakening is anticipated by the
end of the forecast period due to an increase of the wind shear.

Radar fixes from Cuba and satellite data indicate that Matthew is
moving toward the north or 360 degrees at about 9 kt. The hurricane
is being steered by the flow around the western edge of a
subtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge
westward, and this pattern should force the hurricane to turn
toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the waters just east
of Florida. Beyond 3 days, the ridge is forecast to shift eastward
allowing Matthew to turn northward and then northeastward.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will
extend far from the center of Matthew. Most of the models shows a
strong hurricane near the east coast of Florida and the southeast
United States from days 2 through 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches have been issued
for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum,
very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of
the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 18.9N 74.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 74.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 22.0N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 24.0N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 25.6N 77.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 29.5N 79.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 34.0N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#52 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:59 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW EXPECTED TO HIT
FAR EASTERN CUBA HARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti
* Seven Mile Bridge to south of Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
in the Windward Passage near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 74.3
West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). On
this track the eye of Matthew will move over the extreme portion of
eastern Cuba later this afternoon. A turn toward the north-
northwest is expected by Wednesday, followed by a northwest turn
Wednesday night. Matthew is expected to move near or over portions
of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday, and
approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). Data from the Cuban Meteorological Institute
indicate that winds of tropical storm force are already affecting
portions of eastern Cuba.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 949 mb (28.02 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting portions of
Haiti. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later
today, the southeastern Bahamas this evening, the central Bahamas
on Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across
the remainder of Haiti today, eastern Cuba and the southeastern
Bahamas later today, and the central and northwestern Bahamas
Tuesday night and Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are still occurring in portions the
Dominican Republic within the warning area, and these conditions
will spread northward into the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Thursday. Tropical storm condition are also
possible in the Florida tropical storm watch area by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches
Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to
7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the
Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#53 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:59 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW
ALREADY POUNDING THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 74.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch has been extended southward to Golden Beach,
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Golden Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti
* Seven Mile Bridge to south of Golden Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 74.3 West. Matthew is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). On this track the eye of
Matthew will move over the extreme portion of eastern Cuba in the
next few hours. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected by
Wednesday, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. Matthew is
expected to move near or over portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern
Bahamas Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through at least Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting portions of Haiti.
Hurricane conditions are likely occuring over eastern Cuba, and will
begin in the southeastern Bahamas this evening, the central Bahamas
on Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading
across the remainder of Haiti, eastern Cuba and the southeastern
Bahamas tonight, and should reach the central and northwestern
Bahamas on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring in portions
the Dominican Republic within the warning area, and these conditions
will spread northward into the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Thursday. Tropical storm condition are also
possible in the Florida tropical storm watch area by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches
Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to
7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Palm Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is the potential for
life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours along
the Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Volusia/Brevard
county line. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the
Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

The eye of Hurricane Matthew is not as distinct as it was earlier
today, and the change in the overall pattern suggests that the
cyclone is a little weaker due to the interaction with the nearby
high terrain. The initial intensity has been lowered to 120 kt and
some slight additional weakening could occur tonight while Matthew's
circulation continues to interact with Cuba and Hispaniola. Once
Matthew moves into the Bahamas, the environment is favorable for the
hurricane to maintain category 4 status for the next 2 days. Some
weakening is anticipated beyond 3 days due to an increase of the
wind shear.

Earlier reconnaissance aircraft fixes, satellite and radar data from
Cuba indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north or 360 degrees
at about 8 kt. The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow
around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. Most of the global
models build the ridge westward, and this pattern should force the
hurricane to turn toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the
waters just east of Florida. The most interesting change this
afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic
ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an
additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the
NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left, necessitating the
southward extension of the hurricane watch in Florida. Beyond 3
days, the ridge is forecast to move eastward, allowing Matthew to
turn northward and then northeastward.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other
government officials in those countries.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this
far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to
the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep
all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United
States to clarify.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South
Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even
if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to
specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the
remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a
minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely
along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.8N 74.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 22.5N 75.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 24.0N 76.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 25.9N 78.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 29.5N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 33.5N 78.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 40.0N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#54 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:55 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...THE EYE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE
EASTERN TIP OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 74.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM SW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Golden Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti
* Seven Mile Bridge to south of Golden Beach

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), radar data from Guantanamo, Cuba, along
with reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
indicate that the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude
20.1 North, longitude 74.3 West. The center of the eye of Matthew
made landfall near Juaco, Cuba, around 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC).
Matthew is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through this evening. A turn toward
the north-northwest is expected on Wednesday, followed by a
northwest turn Wednesday night. Matthew is forecast to move near or
over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas Wednesday, and
approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through at least Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting portions of
Haiti. Hurricane conditions are likely occuring over eastern Cuba,
and will begin in the southeastern Bahamas by Wednesday morning, the
central Bahamas on Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday
night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading
across the remainder of Haiti, eastern Cuba and the southeastern
Bahamas tonight, and should reach the central and northwestern
Bahamas on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring in portions
the Dominican Republic within the warning area, and these conditions
will spread northward into the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Thursday. Tropical storm condition are also
possible in the Florida tropical storm watch area by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches
Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to
7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Palm Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is the potential for
life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours along
the Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Volusia/Brevard
county line. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the
Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#55 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:53 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...THE EYE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING OFF OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 74.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watches from Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet, and for
Lake Okeechobee, have been changed to Hurricane Warnings. The
Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia
county line. The Tropical Storm Watch from Seven Mile Bridge to
Golden Beach has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning, and
Tropical Storm Warnings have been added from Chokoloskee to Ocean
Reef, and for Florida Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), radar data from Guantanamo, Cuba, along
with reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
indicate that the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude
20.4 North, longitude 74.4 West. Matthew is moving toward the north
near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on
Wednesday, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. Matthew
will be moving through the Bahamas through Thursday, and is
expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday
evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts, but Matthew remains a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected
to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting portions of Haiti.
Hurricane conditions are likely occuring over eastern Cuba, and will
begin in the southeastern Bahamas by Wednesday morning, the central
Bahamas on Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across
the remainder of Haiti, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas
tonight, and should reach the central and northwestern Bahamas on
Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm conditions are still occurring in portions the
Dominican Republic within the warning area, and these conditions
will spread northward into the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected
by early Thursday. Tropical storm condition should reach the
tropical storm warning area in Florida by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches
Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to
7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern
and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and
eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of
life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the
Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Sebastian Inlet.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county
line. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the
Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days.
Swells from Matthew are also affecting portions of the Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

Hurricane Matthew made landfall along the extreme eastern coast of
Cuba near Juaco around 0000 UTC this evening, and the eye is just
now moving off of the northeastern coast of Cuba. Some weakening has
occurred due to interaction with the mountains of eastern Cuba and
western Haiti. However, latest reports from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the central pressure hasn't
risen much and that the maximum winds have only decreased to an
estimated 115 kt, keeping Matthew a dangerous category four
hurricane.

Radar and recon fixes indicate that Matthew is moving slightly west
of due north, or 350/07 kt. Matthew is expected to begin turning
toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours or so, followed
by a northwestward motion in 24-48 hours as the large ridge to the
north of the powerful hurricane begins to build westward across the
southeastern United States in response to a broad trough over the
central U.S. weakening and lifting out to the northeast. The next
upstream weather system that will affect the steering currents
surrrounding Matthew is a large trough currently approaching the
northwestern U.S. and southwestern Canada. That system is forecast
to dig southeastward and amplify over the central U.S. during next
several days, resulting in significant ridging downstream over the
northeastern United States. As the next ridge builds and lifts
northward, Matthew is expected to turn northward as well by 72
hours, and turn northeastward after that as the aforementioned
trough moves eastward into the eastern United States by 96-120
hours. The official forecast track remains close to a blend of the
GFS and ECMWF models.

The current 10-15 kt of northwesterly vertical wind shear is
forecast to weaken to around 5 kt by 36-48 hours while Matthew is
moving over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, where SSTs are
expected to be near 30 deg C. That combination, along with high
mid-level humidity, should enable Matthew to maintain category four
status, although eyewall replacement cycles, which can not be
forecast with any skill, could result in fluctuations in the
intensity not shown by the official forecast. By 72 hours and
beyond, steadily increasing vertical wind shear is expected to
induce gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is close
to but slightly above the consensus model IVCN.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other
government officials in those countries.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this
far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to
the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep
all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United
States to clarify.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South
Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even
if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to
specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the
remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a
minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely
along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 20.4N 74.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.7N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.3N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 25.0N 77.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 26.7N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 30.3N 80.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 33.2N 78.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 37.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#56 Postby arlwx » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:04 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CENTER OF MATTHEW NORTH
OF EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 74.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), radar data from Guantanamo, Cuba, along
with reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
indicate that the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude
20.7 North, longitude 74.4 West. Matthew is moving toward the north
near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue overnight. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected
today, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. Matthew
will be moving across the Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected
to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected
to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions could still be affecting the northwest
portion of Haiti. Hurricane conditions are likely occuring over
eastern Cuba, and will begin in portions of the southeastern Bahamas
within the next few hours, the central Bahamas later today, and the
northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of Haiti and
eastern Cuba this morning. Tropical storm conditions are spreading
over the southeastern Bahamas, and should reach the central and
northwestern Bahamas later today, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are still
occurring in portions the Dominican Republic within the warning
area, and these conditions will spread northward into the Turks and
Caicos Islands overnight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible overnight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected
by early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions should reach the
tropical storm warning area in Florida by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches
Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to
7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern
and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and
eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of
life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the
Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Sebastian Inlet.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county
line. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas during
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#57 Postby arlwx » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:05 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE BEGINNING
TO SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 74.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch along the east coast of Florida has been
extended northward to Fernandina Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Fernandina Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 74.6 West. Matthew is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected today, followed by a northwest turn
tonight. Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas through
Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east coast of
Florida by Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue affecting the
northwest portion of Haiti this morning. Hurricane conditions are
likely occuring over eastern Cuba and portions of the southeastern
Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the
central Bahamas later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight.

Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of Haiti and
eastern Cuba this morning. Tropical storm conditions are spreading
over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, and
should reach the central and northwestern Bahamas later today,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm
conditions should diminish within the warning area in the Dominican
Republic this morning.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba this morning with tropical storm conditions possible this
morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected
by early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions should reach the
tropical storm warning area in Florida by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to
7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern
and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and
eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of
life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the
Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Sebastian Inlet.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county
line. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas during
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#58 Postby arlwx » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:06 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

The satellite presentation of Matthew has degraded since its
interaction with the mountains terrain of eastern Cuba with the
eye no longer discernible in infrared satellite pictures. Data from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Matthew has
weakened slightly. The aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 118 kt and SFMR winds of 109 kt to the northeast of the
center. Based on these data the initial wind speed has been lowered
to 110 kt. Matthew will be moving over sea surface temperatures of
29 to 30 degrees Celsius and the shear is expected to remain low
during the next couple of days. These conditions should allow some
slight restrengthening while it moves through the Bahamas.
Increasing shear later in the forecast period is likely to cause
gradual weakening.

Matthew is moving northward or 350/8 kt. A northwestward turn is
expected to occur today as the ridge to the north of Matthew builds
westward. This should steer the hurricane through the Bahamas and
near the east coast of Florida during the next 48 hours. After that
time, the global models turn the hurricane northward, then
northeastward when a ridge to the northeast of Matthew shifts
eastward and a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the eastern
United States. The 0000 UTC GFS has shifted slightly west of the
previous run, and is now close to the UKMET and ECWMF tracks. The
new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through
72 hours, and shows a track very close to much of the east coast
of the Florida peninsula. Only a slight deviation to the west of
forecast track could result in landfall in Florida. The last few
iterations of the global models have been trending toward a solution
in which the trough is not deep enough to completely lift Matthew
northeastward. As a result, the NHC track has been shifted
significantly southward at day 5, but it remains well north of
the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other
government officials in those countries.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this
far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to
the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep
all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United
States to clarify.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend,
even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to
specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the
remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a
minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely
along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 21.1N 74.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 22.3N 75.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 23.9N 76.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 25.5N 78.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 27.2N 79.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 30.5N 80.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 32.8N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 33.1N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#59 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:45 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 74.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...85 KM ENE OF CABO LUCRECIA CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Fernandina Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 74.9 West. Matthew is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a northwestward
turn tonight. On this track, Matthew will be moving across the
Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east
coast of Florida by Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter planes was 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue affecting the
northwestern portion of Haiti this morning. Hurricane conditions
are likely occuring over eastern Cuba and portions of the
southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread
over the central Bahamas later today and the northwestern Bahamas
tonight.

Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of Haiti and
eastern Cuba this morning. Tropical storm conditions are spreading
over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, and
should reach the central and northwestern Bahamas later today,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm
conditions should diminish within the warning area in the Dominican
Republic this morning.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch areas in Cuba this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected
by early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions should reach the
tropical storm warning area in Florida by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to
7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern
and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and
eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of
life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the
Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Sebastian Inlet.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county
line. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas during
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#60 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:49 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 60.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the French Islands of
Guadeloupe and Martinique.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, Dominica, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands

Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and elsewhere in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 60.7 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move
through the Windward Islands during the next couple of hours, and
move over the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday.

Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Matthew could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
primarily to the notheast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over
the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands witin
the next few hours and continue into this evening.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical wave passing
through the Windward Islands has acquired a closed circulation. The
aircraft found peak flight-level winds of 64 kt, and SFMR surface
winds of around 50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation.
As a result, advisories are being initiated on a 50-kt tropical
storm. The current lack of inner core structure suggests that
further strengthening should be limited today, but environmental
conditions consisting of warm water and low shear ahead of Matthew
favor intensification throughout the remainder of the forecast
period. The NHC intensity forecast is more conservative than the
statistical guidance, but follows the trends of the global models
in deepening the system.

Since the center has very recently formed, the initial motion
estimate is a highly uncertain 275/18 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic should steer Matthew westward across the
eastern Caribbean during the next few days, and the track guidance
is tightly clustered through 72 hours. After that time, the
tropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the
ridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are
significant differences among the track models as to when the turn
takes place and how sharp it will be. The GFS takes the cyclone
northwestward much faster than the ECMWF with more troughing
developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. For now, the NHC track
lies near a consensus of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 13.4N 60.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 13.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.9N 66.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.9N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 13.8N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 13.5N 74.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 14.8N 75.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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