ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#61 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:50 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW BEARING DOWN ON THE BAHAMAS AND AIMING
TOWARD FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 75.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNE OF CABO LUCRECIA CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

The Hurricane Watch and Hurricane Warning for Cuba will likely be
discontinued later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 75.3 West. Matthew is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track,
Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas today and tomorrow, and is
expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Matthew is expected to remain at category 3
or stronger while it moves through the Bahamas and approaches the
east coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane was 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to gradually diminish
over portions of eastern Cuba today. These conditions will continue
over the southeastern Bahamas, and will spread over the central
Bahamas later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward
Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first
expected in Florida by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Coastal east-central Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern
and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and
eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of
life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the
Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia
county line. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation
during the next 48 hours from north of the Flagler/Volusia county
line to Fernandina Beach. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas during
the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of
Florida and the southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#62 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:44 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW ON ITS WAY TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 75.7W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward from Fernandina
Beach to Savannah River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast
from north of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River.

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watches and
Warnings for Cuba.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 75.7 West. Matthew is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track,
Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas tonight and tomorrow,
and is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by
tomorrow night.

Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Matthew is expected to remain at category 3 or stronger while it
moves through the Bahamas and approaches the east coast of
Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). Ragged Island in the Bahamas recently reported sustained
winds of 58 mph (93 km/h), and a minimum pressure of 985 mb (29.09
inches).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas
and spread into the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Thursday.
Winds will gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward
Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first
expected in Florida by early Thursday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Florida and Georgia by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area on the Florida Gulf Coast on Thursday.

Wind gusts to tropical storm force are still possible along the
north coast of central and eastern Cuba through this evening.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Eastern Cuba...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Central Cuba...3 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Western Haiti...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals of
40 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Coastal eastern Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern
and northwestern Haiti and central and eastern Cuba.

Rainfall will diminish across Jamaica and the Dominican Republic
this evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River...5 to 8 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast from Deerfield Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line.

There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of the Flagler/Volusia county line to
Savannah River. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a couple of hours ago
indicated that the structure of Matthew had not changed very much,
and the initial intensity remains at 105 kt. Another Hurricane
Hunter plane will be in the eye soon. The environment continues to
be favorable for Matthew to restrengthen while it approaches the
the east coast of Florida during the next day or so. After that
time, the shear is forecast to increase significantly, resulting in
gradual weakening of the hurricane.

Satellite images indicate that Matthew is moving toward the
northwest or 325 degrees at about 10 kt. The subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic is still strong, and the flow pattern around
this ridge should continue to steer the hurricane toward the
northwest during the next day or two with no significant change in
forward speed. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward,
allowing Matthew to move northward very near or over the north
Florida east coast, and then near or to the east of the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts. By the end of the forecast period, models
diverge considerably, with the GFS moving the cyclone southwestward
toward land, and the ECMWF keeping Matthew over the Atlantic a good
distance from the coast. The NHC forecast keeps Matthew over water
in the middle of these two model solutions.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please
consult statements from the meteorological service and other
government officials in that country.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are
possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and
Georgia.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South
Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if
the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine
what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next
week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are
likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several
days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 22.5N 75.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 24.0N 76.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 25.6N 78.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 27.2N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 29.0N 80.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 32.6N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 30.0N 74.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#63 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:55 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MATTHEW HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY...
...IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...275 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 76.0 West. Matthew is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track,
Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, and
is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by tomorrow
night.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115
mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The recent weakening
is likely to be short-lived, as Matthew as expected to intensify
later tonight and Thursday. The hurricane is expected to remain at
a category 3 or stronger intensity while it moves through the
Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas
and spread into the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Thursday.
Winds will gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward
Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first
expected in Florida by early Thursday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Florida and Georgia by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area on the Florida Gulf Coast on Thursday.

Wind gusts to tropical storm force are still possible along the
north coast of central and eastern Cuba through this evening.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Eastern Cuba...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Central Cuba...3 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Western Haiti...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals of
40 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Coastal eastern Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern
and northwestern Haiti and central and eastern Cuba.

Rainfall will diminish across Jamaica and the Dominican Republic
this evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River...5 to 8 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast from Deerfield Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line.

There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of the Flagler/Volusia county line to
Savannah River. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#64 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:53 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...EYE OF MATTHEW MOVING NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 76.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued north of the Flagler/Volusia
county line to Fernandina Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued north of Savannah River to Edisto
Beach, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to Fernandina Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 76.4 West. Matthew is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight and Thursday. A turn toward
the north-northwest is expected Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and
Nassau overnight, then very near the east coast of the Florida
peninsula Thursday night through Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected during the next
24-36 hours, and Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane
as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas
and spread into the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Thursday.
Winds will gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward
Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first
expected in Florida by early Thursday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Georgia and South Carolina by late Friday, with tropical storm
conditions possible on Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area on the Florida Gulf Coast on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River...5 to 8 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast from Deerfield Beach to Fernandina Beach.

There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Eastern Cuba...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Central Cuba...3 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Coastal eastern Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
showed lower winds in Matthew than seen during the previous
mission, with peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 103 kt and estimates
near 95 kt from the SFMR instrument. Based on these, the initial
intensity is reduced to 100 kt. However, satellite imagery
indicates that the hurricane is becoming better organized, with the
eye trying to re-appear and cooling cloud tops near the center. In
addition, the eye has contracted to 15 n mi wide and the central
pressure has fallen to 961 mb. This suggests that the winds are
about to increase.

The initial motion is 320/9. There is little change to the
synoptic reasoning or the forecast track through 48 hours. Matthew
is expected to move around the western side of the subtropical
ridge, which should move slowly eastward during the next couple of
days. This evolution should steer Matthew generally northwestward
for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest. This forecast track takes the center near Andros
Island and New Providence in about 12 hours, and then very near the
eastern coast of the the Florida peninsula. This part of the
forecast track is west of the various consensus models, but it lies
near the GFS, ECMWF, and ECMWF ensemble mean. From 48-72 hours, the
cyclone is expected to recurve northeastward along the southern edge
of the mid-latitude westerlies. After 72 hours, the track guidance
become very divergent, with solutions ranging from a continued
eastward motion out to sea to a turn back to the southwest. The new
forecast track shows a slow southeastward motion during this time
in best agreement with the ECMWF.

As mentioned above, Matthew is getting better organized, and during
the next 36 hours or so it should be moving through an area of
light vertical wind shear. This should allow strengthening, and
the new intensity forecast calls for the system to reach an
intensity near 115 kt in about 36 hours. This is near the upper
end of the intensity guidance. After 36 hours, proximity to land
and increasing shear should cause weakening, and the cyclone is now
expected to be down to tropical storm strength by 120 hours.
Overall, the intensity forecast is in best agrement with the SHIPS
model.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please
consult statements from the meteorological service and other
government officials in that country.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are
possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and
Georgia.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South
Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if
the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine
what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next
week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are
likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several
days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 23.4N 76.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 24.6N 77.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 26.4N 79.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 28.2N 80.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 30.1N 81.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 32.5N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 32.0N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 30.5N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#65 Postby arlwx » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:57 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...MATTHEW POUNDING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 76.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to Fernandina Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 76.7 West. Matthew is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the eye of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and
New Providence in the northwestern Bahamas early this morning, then
pass near Grand Bahama Island late today, and move very close to
the east coast of the Florida peninsula Thursday night through
Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as
it approaches the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). An unofficial observing site on Staniel Cay in the
Exumas recently reported a sustained wind of 87 mph (140 km/h)
with a gust to 92 mph (148 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas
and spread into the northwestern Bahamas today. Winds will
gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward
Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first
expected in Florida by late this morning.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Georgia and South Carolina by late Friday, with tropical storm
conditions possible on Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area on the Florida Gulf Coast beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River...5 to 8 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast from Deerfield Beach to Fernandina Beach.

There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Eastern Cuba...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Central Cuba...3 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Coastal eastern Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#66 Postby arlwx » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:59 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW STRENGTHENING NEAR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 77.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound,
Georgia, and the Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to
South Santee River, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 77.1 West. Matthew is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the eye
of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and New Providence in the
northwestern Bahamas early this morning, then pass near Grand Bahama
Island late today, and move very close to the east coast of the
Florida peninsula tonight through Friday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional
strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Matthew is
forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as it approaches the east
coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas
and spread into the northwestern Bahamas today. Winds will
gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward
within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are first expected in Florida by late this morning.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area on the Florida Gulf Coast beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River, including portions of the St.
Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Savannah River to South Santee River...3 to 5 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast and Georgia coast from Deerfield Beach to Altamaha Sound.

There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of Altamaha Sound to South Santee
River. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to
8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches
The Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated totals of 5 inches
Eastern Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 20 inches
Central Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 8 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...less than one additional inch, isolated
storm-totals of 8 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#67 Postby arlwx » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:02 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

The satellite presentation of Matthew has improved markedly
overnight with eye reappearing and warming within the past couple
of hours. The eye is also embedded within a very symmetric
central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -70C. An Air
Force Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter that just flew through the
center reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 132 kt, SFMR
winds around 103 kt, and a pressure of 944 mb, which is
down about 18 mb from last evening. Using a blend of the
flight-level and SFMR winds, the initial intensity is set at
110 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued
strengthening today and Matthew is expected to become an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane while it moves over the northwestern
Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida. After 24 hours,
land interaction is likely to cause some weakening, and later in the
period increasing shear should cause a more rapid decrease in
winds. The NHC forecast is above the most of guidance during the
first 24 hours due to the recent increase in organization, but is
close to the consensus thereafter.

Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Matthew is moving
northwestward or 320/10 kt. Matthew is expected to move around
the western periphery of a subtropical ridge that is forecast to
gradually retreat eastward during the next day or two. This
pattern should steer Matthew northwestward over the northwestern
Bahamas today, then north-northwestward very near the east coast
of Florida late today through Friday night. The models are tightly
clustered through 48 hours, and the NHC track is near the consensus
of the GFS and ECMWF models through that time. After 48 hours, the
hurricane should turn northeastward as a broad trough approaches
the Great Lakes region. The trough is expected to pass north of
Matthew in about 72 hours, which is expected to cause the cyclone to
turn eastward, then southeastward late in the forecast period.
There is still significant spread in the long-range guidance so
there is lower than normal confidence in the days 4 and 5 track
prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the central and
northwestern Bahamas today, and along portions of the east
coast of Florida tonight.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and
Georgia. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the
hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in
impacts are possible in the hurricane watch area in northeast
Georgia and South Carolina.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect eastern
North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center
of Matthew remains offshore.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 24.2N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 25.5N 78.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 27.2N 79.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 29.0N 80.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 30.7N 80.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 32.4N 77.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 31.0N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 29.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#68 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2016 6:46 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW APPROACHING ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS...
...OUTER RAINBANDS ALREADY APPROACHING FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 77.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF NASSAU BAHAMAS
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for the southeastern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 77.5 West. Matthew is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected tonight. On the forecast track, the eye of Matthew should
pass near Andros Island and New Providence in the northwestern
Bahamas during the next few hours, pass near Grand Bahama
Island late today, and move very close to the east coast of the
Florida peninsula tonight through Friday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected
today, and Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as it
approaches the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). Nassau in the Bahamas recently reported sustained
winds of 50 mph (80 km/h) with a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated by a reconnaissance
aircraft was 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas
and spread into the northwestern Bahamas today. Winds will
continue to diminish over the southeastern Bahamas this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward
within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are first expected in Florida by late this morning.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area on the Florida Gulf Coast beginning later today.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents
in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of
a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River, including portions of the St.
Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Savannah River to South Santee River...3 to 5 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast and Georgia coast from Deerfield Beach to Altamaha Sound.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to
8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches
The Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated totals of 5 inches
Eastern Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 20 inches
Central Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 8 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...less than one additional inch, isolated
storm-totals of 8 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#69 Postby arlwx » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:59 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 77.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF NASSAU
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to Edisto Beach,
South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from Anclote River to Suwannee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River to Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Anclote River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 77.8 West. The eye is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) between Andros Island and
Nassau in the Bahamas. This general motion is expected to continue
today with a turn toward the north-northwest tonight or early
Friday. On the forecast track, Matthew should cross the northwestern
Bahamas later today and move close to or over the east coast of the
Florida peninsula through Friday night.

Reports form an Air Force plane indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional strengthening is possible, and Matthew should remain
a Category 4 hurricane while it approaches the Florida coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by an Air Force plane was
940 mb (27.76 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting the central Bahamas
and these condition will spread into the northwestern Bahamas during
the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward
within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are first expected in Florida within the next several hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents
in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of
a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including portions of the St.
Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...3 to 5 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from
Deerfield Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. There is
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours from north of Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South
Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to
8 inches, isolated 12 inches
The Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Eastern Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 20 inches
Central Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 8 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#70 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:43 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to
improve, with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep convection,
and T-numbers are oscillating around 6.0 on the Dvorak scale. Data
from an Air Force reconnaissance plane traversing the eye of the
hurricane also indicate that Matthew has strengthened. The initial
intensity is estimated at 120 kt, based mainly on SFMR data
and an eyewall dropsonde.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional
intensification today while Matthew approaches the east coast of
Florida. After 24 hours, land interaction is likely to cause some
weakening, and later in the period increasing shear should cause a
more rapid decrease in winds. The NHC forecast is slightly above
most of the guidance during the first 24 hours due to the recent
intensification, and follows the weakening trend of the consensus
thereafter.

Aircraft fixes show that Matthew is moving toward the northwest or
325 degrees at 10 kt. The steering flow has not changed and Matthew
is expected to move around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge located over the western Atlantic during the next 24 to 36
hours. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward allowing
the hurricane to move northward and then sharply turn eastward
while it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. By
the end of the forecast period the steering pattern is forecast
to change again and a weakening cyclone is expected to turn
southward.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas
today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida
tonight.

2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will
occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile
homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.

3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents
of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds
at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. Only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and
Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the
hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in
impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina.

5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 25.1N 77.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 26.4N 79.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 28.3N 80.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 30.2N 81.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 31.7N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 32.5N 76.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 30.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 28.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#71 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:45 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1200 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...12 PM POSITION UPDATE...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 78.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF NASSAU BAHAMAS
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Pasch
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#72 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:04 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
100 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...1 PM POSITION UPDATE...

An automated station in the Berry Islands, Bahamas, reported a
sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h), with gusts to 76 mph (120
km/h) during the past hour.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 78.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF FREEPORT BAHAMAS
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Pasch
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#73 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:41 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...HURRICANE MATTHEW RELENTLESSLY POUNDING THE BAHAMAS...
...POTENTIALLY DISASTROUS IMPACTS FOR FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 78.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River to Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Anclote River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 78.4 West. The hurricane is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today with a turn toward the north-
northwest tonight or early Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of
Matthew should be near or over Freeport in the Bahamas in the next
few hours, and move close to or over the east coast of the Florida
peninsula through Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible,
and Matthew should remain a Category 4 hurricane while it approaches
the Florida coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). Nassau in the Bahamas reported 97 mph (156 km/h)
sustained winds earlier today when the northern eyewall moved over
that island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting portions of the
central Bahamas and are already spreading across the northwestern
Bahamas.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward
within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are first expected in Florida within the next several hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents
in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of
a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including portions of the St.
Johns River...7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...4 to 6 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...4 to 6 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from
Deerfield Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. There is
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours from north of Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South
Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to
8 inches, isolated 12 inches
The Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Eastern Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 20 inches
Central Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 8 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible along the Atlantic
coastal area of north and central Florida tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#74 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:04 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
400 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...4 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A NOAA station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama recently reported
a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph
(89 km/h). A National Ocean Service station at Lake Worth Pier,
Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and
a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM SE OF FREEPORT BAHAMAS
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#75 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:56 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW ABOUT TO HIT
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...
...POTENTIALLY DISASTROUS IMPACTS FOR FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 78.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to South Santee
River, South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of South Santee
River to Surf City, North Carolina.

The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
for the Central Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* North of South Santee River to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Anclote River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 78.6 West. The hurricane
is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue tonight with a turn toward
the north-northwest early Friday. On the forecast track, the
eye of Matthew should move near or over Freeport in the Bahamas
in the next hour or so, and move close to or over the east coast
of the Florida peninsula through Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
while the hurricane moves toward the coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). Settlement Point in the Bahamas, recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust of 62 mph (100
km/hr).

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
plane was 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the
northwestern Bahamas this evening.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida this evening and will spread northward
within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions
will continue to spread northward in the warning area along the
Florida east coast tonight and Friday.

Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area in Georgia and South Carolina Friday night and Saturday with
tropical storm conditions expected on Friday.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone.
Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area in the Carolinas on Friday night and Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft
South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2
to 4 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach, Florida...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from
Deerfield Beach, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to
Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

The central and northern Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15
inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and southeast
North Carolina....5 to 10 inches, isolated 12 inches

Rainfall should diminish across central and eastern Cuba with
isolated additional amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible through this
evening.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the
east-central Florida coast tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane just reached Matthew and measured 121
kt at the 700-mb level and a minimum pressure of of 936 mb. Until
the plane finishes sampling the circulation, the initial intensity
is kept at 120 kt. There some indications that an outer eyewall is
trying to form, and perhaps an eyewall cycle will occur. If so, some
weakening could occur, but there could also be fluctuations in
intensity while the hurricane moves toward the east coast of Florida
that are not explicitly shown here. After 24 hours, the combination
of land interaction and a significant increase in the shear should
cause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the
SHIPS guidance during the next day or so, and it follows the trend
of the consensus thereafter.

Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is still moving
toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 11 kt. The steering flow has
not changed, and Matthew should continue to move around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge located over the western Atlantic
during the next 24 to 36 hours. This portion of the NHC forecast is
very close to the multi-model consensus. After that time, the
hurricane will become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies
and should turn sharply eastward for a day or so. Then the steering
pattern is forecast to change again, and the track forecast becomes
highly uncertain. Both the GFS and the ECMWF turn a much weaker
Matthew southward and southwestward. The NHC forecast follows the
southwestward trend, and is in the middle of these two global
models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas
today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida
tonight.

2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will
occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile
homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.

3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents
of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds
at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. Only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and
Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the
hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in
impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina.

5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 26.2N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 29.6N 81.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 31.2N 81.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 32.1N 80.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 31.5N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#76 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:02 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
600 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF MATTHEW LASHING FREEPORT...
...6 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A NOAA station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama recently reported
a sustained wind of 58 mph (95 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph
(120 km/h). A National Ocean Service station at Lake Worth Pier,
Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and
a wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 78.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#77 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2016 6:19 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
700 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...98-MPH WIND GUST REPORTED AT SETTLEMENT POINT...
...7 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A NOAA station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama recently reported
a sustained wind of 75 mph (120 km/h) and a wind gust of 98 mph
(157 km/h). A National Ocean Service station at Lake Worth Pier,
Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) and
a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 78.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#78 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2016 6:54 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW OVER THE WESTERN
END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning
from south of Boca Raton, Florida, to north of Golden Beach.

The Tropical Warning has been discontinued south of Ocean Reef,
Florida, to Chokoloskee.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued south of
Englewood to Chokoloskee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* Boca Raton to South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* North of South Santee River to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
over the western end of Grand Bahama Island near latitude 26.6
North, longitude 78.9 West. The hurricane is moving toward the
northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue tonight with a turn toward the north-northwest early
Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Matthew should move away
from Grand Bahama Island during the next few hours, and move close
to or over the east coast of the Florida peninsula through Friday
night.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are now near 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher gusts.
Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely while the
hurricane moves toward the coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). Settlement Point in the Bahamas recently reported
a sustained wind of 79 mph (128 km/h) with a gust of 105 mph (169
km/hr). The Lake Worth Pier near Palm Beach, Florida, recently
reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 60
mph (96 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
data is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the
northwestern Bahamas this evening.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida this evening and will spread northward
within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions
will continue to spread northward in the warning area along the
Florida east coast tonight and Friday.

Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area in Georgia and South Carolina Friday night and Saturday with
tropical storm conditions expected on Friday.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone.
Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area in the Carolinas on Friday night and Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft
Boca Raton to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft
South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2
to 4 ft
Virginia Key to Boca Raton, Florida...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from
Boca Raton, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to
Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

The central and northern Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15
inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and southeast
North Carolina....5 to 10 inches, isolated 12 inches

Rainfall should diminish across central and eastern Cuba with
isolated additional amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible through this
evening.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the
east-central Florida coast tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#79 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:59 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
900 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...EYE OF MATTHEW NOW NORTHWEST OF GRAND BAHAMA...
...9 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

An automated station at West End on Grand Bahama recently reported a
sustained wind of 73 mph (117 km/h) and a pressure of 947.1 mb
(27.97 inches). Palm Beach International Airport recently reported
a wind gust of 50 mph (80 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#80 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:06 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...MATTHEW STILL PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER GRAND BAHAMA...
...10 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

An automated station at West End on Grand Bahama Island recently
reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) and a pressure of
943.1 mb (27.85 inches). Vero Beach, Florida, recently reported a
wind gust of 50 mph (80 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 79.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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