ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#81 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:56 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BAHAMAS AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 79.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Florida Bay
and the Florida Keys.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* Boca Raton to South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* North of South Santee River to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and in the Carolinas
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 79.2
West. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).
A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Friday, and a turn
toward the north expected Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Matthew will be moving near or over the east
coast of the Florida peninsula through Friday night, and near or
over the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours. However, Matthew is expected to be a category 3 or
stronger hurricane as it moves near the coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 939 mb (27.73 inches). An automated station on the west
end of Grand Bahama Island recently reported a pressure of 943.1 mb
(27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions should diminish over portions of the
northwestern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida during the next several hours and will
spread northward within the warning area through Friday. Tropical
storm conditions will continue to spread northward in the warning
area along the Florida east coast tonight and Friday.

Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area in Georgia and South Carolina Friday night and Saturday with
tropical storm conditions expected on Friday.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone.
Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area in the Carolinas on Friday night and Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft
Boca Raton to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft
South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2
to 4 ft
Virginia Key to Boca Raton, Florida...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from
Boca Raton, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to
Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

The northern Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
The Atlantic coast of the United States from Central Florida to
eastern North Carolina...6 to 12 inches with isolated totals near
15 inches along the coasts

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the
east-central Florida coast tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
Tropical cyclone updates at 1200 AM, 100 AM, 300 AM, and 400 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

The satellite appearance of Matthew has improved during the past
several hours, with an eye embedded within a more circular central
dense overcast and an increase in the outer banding. Reports from
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and coastal radar data show the
presence of centric eyewalls with diameters of about 8 and 60 n mi
respectively. The NOAA aircraft earlier reported a minimum pressure
of 937 mb, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter just reported
estimated surface winds of 109 kt from the SFMR and a pressure of
939 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is 115 kt.

The initial motion is 325/11 kt. For the next 24-48 hours, Matthew
should move around the western end of the subtropical ridge, with
the motion gradually turning northward and then northeastward.
During this time, the center of the guidance envelope and the
various consensus models have shifted a little to the east. However,
the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET continue to suggest the possibility of the
hurricane making landfall in Florida and then moving near the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina. This part of the forecast is nudged
a little to the east and lies between the model consensus and the
previous forecast. After 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level ridge is
forecast to build north and west of Matthew, and the track guidance
forecasts a southeasterly to southerly motion in response. While
there is still a large spread, the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET are in
better agreement that Matthew should move south between the ridge
and Hurricane Nicole to the east. This part of the forecast follows
this guidance and lies between the GFS and ECMWF.

During the next 12-24 hours, Matthew will likely weaken a little as
it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. After that time, it is
expected to encounter strong southwesterly vertical shear, and later
in the forecast period dry air is likely to entrain into the
cyclone. This combination should cause steady weakening, and
Matthew is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by 72 hours.
The new intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS
model.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas
today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida
tonight.

2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will
occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile
homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.

3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents
of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds
at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to
a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South
Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one
location. Only a small deviation of the track to the left of the
NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore
within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Georgia. Modest
deviations to the right could keep much of the hurricane-force winds
offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the
hurricane watch and warning areas in northeast Georgia and South
Carolina.

5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 27.1N 79.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 28.5N 80.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 30.3N 80.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 31.8N 80.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 32.6N 78.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 31.5N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 29.0N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 27.0N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#82 Postby arlwx » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:24 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING CLOSER TO THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* Boca Raton to South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* North of South Santee River to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and in the Carolinas
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 79.7 West.
Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest is expected later today, and a turn
toward the north is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Matthew will be moving near or over the east
coast of the Florida peninsula through tonight, and near or over the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although some additional
weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected
to be a powerful category 3 hurricane as it moves near the coast of
Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). During the past hour, a wind gust to 70 mph (113
km/h) was reported at Vero Beach, Florida, and a gust to 60 mph
occurred at Melbourne, Florida.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions should diminish over portions of the
northwestern Bahamas this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida during the next several hours and will
spread northward within the warning area through today. Tropical
storm conditions will continue to spread northward in the warning
area along the Florida east coast today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area in Georgia and South Carolina tonight and Saturday with
tropical storm conditions expected later today.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone.
Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area in the Carolinas on tonight and Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft
Boca Raton to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft
South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2
to 4 ft
Virginia Key to Boca Raton, Florida...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from
Boca Raton, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to
Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

The northern Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
The Atlantic coast of the United States from Central Florida to
eastern North Carolina...6 to 12 inches with isolated totals near
15 inches along the coasts

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the
east-central Florida coast tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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arlwx
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#83 Postby arlwx » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:31 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
300 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...3 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST...

During the past hour, a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a
gust of 71 mph (115 km/h) were reported at Vero Beach, Florida,
while a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph
(102 km/h) were reported at Melbourne, Florida.


SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#84 Postby arlwx » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:02 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
400 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...4 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WESTERN EDGE OF MATTHEW'S EYEWALL APPROACHING CAPE CANAVERAL...

During the past hour, a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a
gust of 70 mph (113 km/h) were reported at Melbourne, Florida,
while a gust of 45 mph (73 km/h) was reported at Orlando, Florida.


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 79.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#85 Postby arlwx » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:54 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING PARALLEL TO AND JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...WESTERN EYEWALL WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS APPROACHING CAPE
CANAVERAL...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 80.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Jupiter Inlet south to Boca Raton has
been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm
Warning has been discontinued south of Boca Raton, as well as for
Lake Okeechobee. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued
south of Anna Maria Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* Jupiter Inlet to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* North of South Santee River to Surf City
* Boca Raton to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Anclote River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and in the Carolinas
should monitor the progress of Matthew. The Hurricane Warning for
the Northwestern Bahamas will likely be discontinued later this
morning.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 80.0 West.
Matthew is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the north is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Matthew will be moving near or over the east
coast of the Florida peninsula through tonight, and near or over the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to be a category 3 hurricane as
it moves near the coast of Florida today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). During the past hour, a sustained wind of 49 mph
(80 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h) was reported at Vero
Beach, Florida. A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust
to 69 mph (111 km/h) was reported at Melbourne, Florida. NOAA buoy
41009 off Cape Canaveral recently reported a sustained wind of 65
mph (104 km/h) with a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions should diminish over portions of the
northwestern Bahamas this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida during the next several hours and will
spread northward within the warning area through today. Tropical
storm conditions will continue to spread northward in the warning
area along the Florida east coast today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area in Georgia and South Carolina tonight and Saturday with
tropical storm conditions expected later today.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone.
Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area in the Carolinas tonight and Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft
Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft
South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2
to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Water levels in the northwestern Bahamas should continue to subside
during the day.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the Florida east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South
Carolina coast from Jupiter Inlet, Florida, to South Santee River,
South Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening
inundation during the next 48 hours from north of South Santee
River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the northwestern Bahamas...with
isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over
the Atlantic coast of the United States from central Florida to
eastern North Carolina...with possible isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches. This rainfall may result in flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the
east-central Florida coast today.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#86 Postby arlwx » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:58 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

The satellite appearance of Matthew has become rather disheveled
looking in infrared satellite imagery since the previous advisory.
Land-based Doppler radar data indicate that Matthew has been going
through an eyewall replacement cycle for the past 12 hours or so,
but the inner eyewall has yet to dissipate within the 35-40 nmi wide
outer eyewall. Both Doppler velocity data and recon SFMR surface
winds and flight-level winds indicate that hurricane-force winds are
and have been occuring within the outer eyewall just 5-10 nmi east
of the Florida coastline. Although the central pressure has
remained steady between 938-940 mb, the intensity has been lowered
to 105 kt based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 118 kt and several
patches of Doppler velocities of 120-122 kt between 5000-7500 feet.

The initial motion estimate is 330/12 kt. For the next 48 hours,
Matthew is expected to move northward and then northeastward around
the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. After that
time, a weakening Matthew is expected to turn slowly southeastward
and then southward as the cyclone gets cut off from the influence of
the mid-latitude westerlies and becomes embedded within the
aforementioned large-scale high pressure ridge. The latest model
guidance has shifted to the left of the previous forecast track
after 36 hours, and the official forecast has been nudged in that
direction, but remains well to the right of the model consensus and
close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus.

Matthew is expected to slowly weaken some more during the next 12
hours or so while the cyclone completes the eyewall replacement
cycle. By 24 hours and beyond, more significant weakening is
expected due to the combination of strong southwesterly vertical
shear increasing to more than 30 kt and entrainment of very dry
mid-level air with humidity values less than 20 percent. The new
intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN.

Special thanks to the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters
for their tireless efforts in having already completed more than 90
center or eye fixes.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains along extensive portions of
the east-central and northeast coast of Florida today.

2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will
occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile
homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.

3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents
of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds
at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to
a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South
Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one
location. Only a small deviation of the track to the left of the
NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore
within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Georgia. Modest
deviations to the right could keep much of the hurricane-force winds
offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the
hurricane watch and warning areas in northeast Georgia and South
Carolina.

5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 28.2N 80.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 29.6N 80.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 31.5N 80.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 32.6N 79.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 33.1N 77.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 31.5N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 29.0N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 27.0N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#87 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:11 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
600 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...6 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WESTERN EDGE OF MATTHEW'S EYEWALL BRUSHING CAPE CANAVERAL...

During the past hour, a wind gust of 100 mph (160 km/h) occurred on
Cape Canaveral.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 80.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Berg
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#88 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:10 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
700 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...7 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WESTERN EDGE OF MATTHEW'S EYEWALL CONTINUES TO BRUSH CAPE
CANAVERAL...

During the past hour, a wind gust of 107 mph (170 km/h) occurred on
the tip of Cape Canaveral.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 80.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#89 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:57 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...EYEWALL OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HUGGING THE COAST OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 80.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ESE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the east coast of Florida south
of Jupiter Inlet has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning from north of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet
has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
for the Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Sebastian Inlet to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* North of South Santee River to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Anclote River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and in the Carolinas
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 80.3 West. Matthew is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is
expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will be moving near or over the east coast of the Florida
peninsula through tonight, and near or over the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to be a category 3 hurricane as
it moves near the coast of Florida today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). Cape Canaveral recently reported and wind gust to
97 mph (155 km/h), and Daytona Beach reported a wind gust of 67 mph
(110 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 944 mb (27.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area in Florida during the next several
hours, and spread northward within the warning area through today.
Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward in the
warning area along the Florida west coast today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area in Georgia and South Carolina tonight and Saturday with
tropical storm conditions expected later today.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone.
Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area in the Carolinas tonight and Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft
Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft
South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2
to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Water levels in the northwestern Bahamas should continue to subside
during the day.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the Florida east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South
Carolina coast from Jupiter Inlet, Florida, to South Santee River,
South Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening
inundation during the next 48 hours from north of South Santee
River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from
central Florida to eastern North Carolina...with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in flooding
and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the
east-central Florida coast today.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few
days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast
through the weekend. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#90 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:13 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
900 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...9 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...MATTHEW'S EYEWALL BRUSHING THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

During the past hour, a wind gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) has been
reported at Daytona Beach.


SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 80.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NNE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#91 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:08 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1000 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...10 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...MATTHEW'S EYEWALL BRUSHING THE COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH...

During the past hour, a private weather station near New Smyrna
Beach reported sustained winds of 63 mph (102 km/h) and a gust to
84 mph (135 km/h). A wind gust to 71 mph (115 km/h) has recently
been reported in Daytona Beach.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#92 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:56 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...WESTERN EYEWALL OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW BRUSHING PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 80.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northeastward to Surf City
North Carolina. The Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa
Beach Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The
Tropical Storm Warning south of Sebastian Inlet has been
discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch
along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Surf City to
Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Surf City to Cape Lookout
North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cocoa Beach to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa Beach
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 80.5 West. Matthew is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is
expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of northeast
Florida and Georgia through tonight, and near or over the coast of
South Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it
begins to move away from the United States on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). A wind gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported
at St. Augustine.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter plane was 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area in Florida today, and spread
northward within the warning area through Saturday.

Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
tropical storm warning area in North Carolina on Saturday morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Cocoa Beach to Flagler Beach, Florida...4 to 6 ft
Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina...
4 to 6 ft
Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa Beach, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Cape Fear to Salvo, North Carolina, including portions of the
Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the
South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from Sebastian
Inlet, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is the
possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours
from north of Cape Fear to Salvo, North Carolina. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from
central Florida to eastern North Carolina...with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in flooding
and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the South
Carolina, Georgia, and northeast Florida coasts today.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few
days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast
through the weekend. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

The satellite presentation has degraded during the past several
hours, and the eye is not very distinct. However, the SFMR and
flight-level wind data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane
indicate that the initial intensity is still 105 kt.

Matthew is expected to change little in intensity during the next 6
to 12 hours, but it should begin to weaken at a faster pace in
24 hours while the shear increases, and by the end of the forecast
period, Matthew is expected to become a tropical depression.

Fixes from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is moving
toward the north-northwest or 345 degrees at 10 kt. Matthew is
reaching the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and
encounter the mid-latitude westerlies. This flow pattern should
steer the hurricane northward and then northeastward during the
next 36 hours. After that time, the flow pattern is forecast
to change again and a weakening Matthew should then turn southward
and southwestward. The NHC forecast is a little bit to the
north from the previous one during the first 24 to 36 hour period
following the multi-model consensus. After 72 hours, models
continue to vary the flow pattern and the confidence in the track
forecast is low.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. We have been very fortunate that Matthew's category 3 winds have
remained a short distance offshore of the Florida Coast thus far,
but this should not be a reason to let down our guard. Only a
small deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring these
winds onshore. The western eyewall of Matthew, which contains
hurricane-force winds, is expected to move over or very near the
coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia today.

2. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and occupants
of high-rise buildings in the Jacksonville area are at particular
risk of strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will
average one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the
surface.

3. The water hazards remain, even if the core of Matthew remains
offshore. These include the danger of life-threatening inundation
from storm surge, as well as inland flooding from heavy rains from
Florida to North Carolina.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 29.4N 80.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 30.8N 80.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 32.5N 79.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 33.5N 78.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 33.5N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 32.0N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 28.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 27.0N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#93 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:04 pm

[Div][HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
100 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...1 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...MATTHEW BATTERING THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

An unofficial observing site in Flagler Beach has reported a wind
gust of 83 mph (135 km/h). A coastal marine observing site at St.
Augustine measured a wind gust to 79 mph (130 km/h) and an
unofficial observing station near Ponte Vedra Beach has observed a
wind gust to 73 mph (117 km/h).

The Racy Point tidal gauge near the St. John's River has recently
reported a storm surge inundation of 3.23 ft above mean higher high
water.


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF ORMOND BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Brown
/Div]
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#94 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:59 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW LASHING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 80.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM ESE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cocoa Beach to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa Beach
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 80.7 West. Matthew is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is
expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of northeast
Florida and Georgia through tonight, and near or over the coast of
South Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it
begins to move away from the United States on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). A wind gust to 84 mph (135 km/h) was recently
reported at Ponte Vedra, and a coastal marine observing station at
St. Augustine recently measured a wind gust of 85 mph (137 km/h).
A tidal gauge at Fernandina Beach reported a storm surge inundation
of 3.11 feet above mean higher high water.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter plane was 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area in Florida today, and spread
northward within the warning area through Saturday.

Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the tropical
storm warning area in North Carolina on Saturday morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Cocoa Beach to Flagler Beach, Florida...4 to 6 ft
Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina...
4 to 6 ft
Cape Fear to Salvo, North Carolina, including portions of the
Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the
South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from Cocoa Beach,
Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of
life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of
Cape Fear to Salvo, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please
see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from
central Florida to eastern North Carolina...with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in flooding
and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the South
Carolina, Georgia, and northeast Florida coasts today.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few
days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast
through the weekend. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#95 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:57 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
300 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...3 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...MATTHEW CONTINUES TO LASH THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

A coastal marine observing site at St. Augustine measured a wind
gust to 86 mph (139 km/h) within the past hour or so. A wind gust
to 64 mph (104 km/h) has been measured at the Naval Air Station in
Jacksonville and a private weather observing site on Jekyll Island,
Georgia, has recently reported a wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h).

A tide gauge at Fernandina Beach has reported a storm surge
inundation of 3.89 ft. The Racy Point tidal gauge near the St.
John's River has recently reported a storm surge inundation of
3.93 ft.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 80.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM E OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#96 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:55 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
400 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...4 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...MATTHEW BASHING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA WITH HIGH
WINDS AND STORM SURGE...

A coastal marine observing site at the St. Augustine Beach Pier
measured a sustained wind of 63 mph (102 km/h) a wind gust to 76 mph
(120 km/h) within the past hour or so. A sustained wind of 55 mph
(88 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 mph (103 km/h) was recently reported
at the Jacksonville International Airport. A private weather
observing site on Jekyll Island, Georgia, recently reported a wind
gust to 53 mph (85 km/h).

A tide gauge at Fernandina Beach recently reported a storm surge
inundation of 4.17 ft. The Racy Point tidal gauge near the St.
John's River recently reported a storm surge inundation of 4.10 ft.


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 80.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM E OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#97 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:48 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...HURRICANE MATTHEW CAUSES DEVASTATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 80.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal warnings have been discontinued south of the
Volusia/Brevard county line.

The Hurricane Warning from the Volusia/Brevard county line to the
Flagler/Volusia county line has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Flagler/Volusia county line to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard county line to the Flagler/Volusia county line
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 80.7 West. Matthew is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue tonight. A turn toward toward the north-northeast and
then to the northeast is expected on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the
coast of northeast Florida and Georgia through tonight, and near or
over the coast of South Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it begins to move
away from the southeastern United States on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). A private weather station in Jacksonville recently
reported a wind gust of 82 mph (131 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter planes was 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area in Florida tonight, and spread
northward within the warning area through Saturday.

Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by Saturday night or
Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected by Saturday
morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Volusia/Brevard county line to Flagler Beach, Florida...4 to 6 ft
Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina...
5 to 7 ft
Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the
Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the
South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from the
Volusia/Brevard county line, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from
northeast Florida to eastern North Carolina, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in life-
threatening flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across parts of the
South Carolina and Georgia coastal plains late this afternoon and
tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few
days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast
through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane and satellite intensity
estimates indicate that Matthew has weakened a little bit and the
maximum winds are 95 kt. The hurricane is heading toward an area of
increasing shear, and this should result in gradual weakening. The
shear is forecast to continue during the next 5 days, so additional
weakening is anticipated and Matthew is expected to be a tropical
depression by the end of the forecast period.

Matthew has begun to move northward at about 10 kt. In about 12
hours, the hurricane will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies, and
this flow pattern should induce a northeastward and then eastward
motion during the next 2 days. During that time the core of the
hurricane is expected to hug the coast from Georgia through
southeastern North Carolina. The confidence in this portion of the
track forecast is high. After that time, the steering flow becomes
very complex, and both the GFS and ECMWF models turn the cyclone
southward and southwestward embedded within the flow on the west
side of a mid-level trough. The NHC track follows these two models,
but the confidence is portion of the forecast is low.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. We have been very fortunate that Matthew's strongest winds have
remained a short distance offshore of the Florida Coast thus far,
but this should not be a reason to let down our guard. Only a
small deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring these
winds onshore. The western eyewall of Matthew, which contains
hurricane-force winds, is expected to move over or very near the
coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia through tonight.

2. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and occupants
of high-rise buildings in the Jacksonville area are at particular
risk of strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will
average one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the
surface.

3. The water hazards remain, even if the core of Matthew remains
offshore. These include the danger of life-threatening inundation
from storm surge, as well as inland flooding from heavy rains from
Florida to North Carolina.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 30.2N 80.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 31.7N 80.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 33.8N 76.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 33.5N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 30.0N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 27.0N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 26.0N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#98 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:58 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
600 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...6 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS AND STORM SURGE FROM MATTHEW STILL BUFFETING THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND SPREADING INTO GEORGIA...

A wind gust of 68 mph (109 km/h) was recently reported by a NOAA
National Ocean Service observing station at the Mayport Bar Pilots
Dock in Florida. The Jacksonville Naval Air Station recently
reported a wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h).

A tide gauge at Fernandina Beach recently reported a storm surge
inundation of 3.22 ft. The Racy Point tide gauge near the St.
John's River recently reported a storm surge inundation of 4.28 ft.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 80.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM ESE OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#99 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:02 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
700 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...7 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...MATTHEW'S EYE WOBBLING NORTHWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST...

A private weather station in Tybee Island, Georgia, recently
reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of
62 mph (100 km/h). A wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) was recently
reported by a NOAA National Ocean Service observing station at the
Mayport Bar Pilots Dock in Florida.

The Racy Point tide gauge near the St. John's River recently
reported a storm surge inundation of 4.37 ft.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 80.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

#100 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:57 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...EYE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWARD JUST OFF OF THE COASTS
OF GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 80.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal warnings have been discontinued south of the
Flagler/Volusia county line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Flagler/Volusia county line to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 80.6 West. Matthew is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue tonight. A turn toward toward the north-northeast and
then to the northeast is expected on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the
coast of northeast Florida and Georgia through tonight, and near or
over the coast of South Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it begins to move
away from the southeastern United States on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). A private weather station at Folly Beach, South
Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 68 mph (107 km/h). In
addition, during the last two hours there have been multiple
reports of wind gusts of 60-65 mph (97-105 km/h) in the Jacksonville
metropolitan area.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter Reserve aircraft was 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area in Florida tonight, and spread
northward elsewhere within the warning area through Saturday.

Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by Saturday night or
Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected by Saturday
morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Flagler/Volusia county line to Flagler Beach, Florida...4 to 6 ft
Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina...
5 to 7 ft
Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the
Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the
South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from the
Volusia/Brevard county line, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from
northeast Florida to eastern North Carolina, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in life-
threatening flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across parts of the
South Carolina and Georgia coastal plains late this afternoon and
tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few
days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast
through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
Tropical Cyclone Updates at 900 PM and 1000 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN
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