WPAC: Tropical Depression Aere

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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm Aere

#41 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:02 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, QUASI-STATIONARY LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
LLCC. A 07/2245Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT CORE OF
CONVECTION WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE
BANDING LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
55 TO 65 KNOTS AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW,
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM SST. TS 22W HAS TRACKED QUASI-STATIONARY DUE ITS POSITION
WITHIN A WEAK, COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE RECEDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING STR OVER CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SLOW AND
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO THE STR BUILDING OVER CHINA NEAR TAU 36. DURING THIS
TIME, LOW VWS AND SLOW TRACK SPEED OVER VERY WARM WATER WILL ALLOW
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION; TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK
INTENSITY BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING STR.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
HAINAN ISLAND AS THE STR OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA BUILDS. THE INCREASED
VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECAY, WITH TS
22W DISSIPATING PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER HAINAN BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm Aere

#42 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 08, 2016 9:57 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE)
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM EAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A DECAYING, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 082319Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO THE
BROAD CENTER WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. DUE
TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CENTER, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION, WHICH APPEARS TO BE QUASI-
STATIONARY IN NATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TS 22W IS TRACKING QUASI-STATIONARY
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS AERE WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS EXHIBITING QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOVEMENT UNTIL A LOW-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MODERATE NORTHEAST SURGE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE WIND FLOW
THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND ADVECT COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO DRIVE TS 22W
SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE VORTEX
TRACKERS INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD HAINAN ISLAND. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48. OVERALL, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIMING OF
THE TRACK CHANGE AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AFTER
TAU 24.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm Aere

#43 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 09, 2016 4:10 am

WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE)
WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM EAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY
BROAD PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING, YET HIGHLY DISORGANIZED, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A 090541Z GPM
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 090219Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN
ELONGATED LLCC, GIVING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND
40 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE
TAIWAN STRAIT WHICH HAS HELPED BOLSTER THE INTENSITY IN RECENT
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH AN ESTABLISHED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 28 CELSIUS,
HOWEVER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY LOW. CURRENTLY TS AERE IS QUASI-
STATIONARY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF A DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS AERE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A QUASI-STATIONARY MANNER
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN THE ABSENCE OF A DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM. THE TRACK WILL SOON SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CHINA COMBINED WITH THE NORTHWEST SURGE THROUGH
THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE HIGH WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AND DRYER AIR
INTO THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. TS AERE IS
EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN AND THE
RESULTANT TRACK, BUT MOST SUPPORT AN ABRUPT TRACK SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BEYOND TAU 12. DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression Aere

#44 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 09, 2016 10:55 pm

Down to a TD now. Looks like Aere is on its way out.

TD
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 10 October 2016

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 10 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N22°00' (22.0°)
E118°00' (118.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1004 hPa
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression Aere

#45 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 4:44 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (AERE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 21.7N 117.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 117.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.6N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.9N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 117.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED,
RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DRIFTING
WESTWARD WITHIN THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHEAST SURGE. A 092307Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A WEAKLY-
DEFINED LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDING. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS, CONSISTENT
WITH THE POORLY ORGANIZED LLCC. TD 22W WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS
12 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression Aere

#46 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 7:04 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression Aere

#47 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:27 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 22W) IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N
111.7E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A
122311Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING A WEAK AND INDISTINCT LLCC. A
121406 ASCAT PASS INDICATES 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE AND WEAK 05-10 KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW-MODERATE
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL IS SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH
A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY ABOVE THE DISTURBANCE, ALLOWING CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE
TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER, THE WINDOW FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT
IS VERY SHORT DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT WILL PASS OVER VIETNAM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression Aere

#48 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 10:02 pm

Image

It's back.

WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE)
WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION(TD) 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TD 22W
(AERE) HAS RAPIDLY REORGANIZED AND REDEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONSOLIDATED AROUND AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122211Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY PASS INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE SSMIS-BASED WINDS INDICATE A BROAD
SWATH OF 35KT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, AND STARTING TO
WRAP INTO THE WESTERN OUTSKIRTS OF THE SYSTEM. THE WIND FIELD TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST REMAINS MUCH WEAKER, BUT WINDS REMAIN NEAR 20-25 KTS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE MICROWAVE AND MSI
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KTS BASED
ON AN INITIAL PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM
HAS MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE
OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING SINCE THIS SYSTEM HAS REGENERATED
AND ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36,
PEAKING AT 45 KTS BY 36, AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN VERY
FAVORABLE. THE ACTUAL PEAK INTENSITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND
OCCUR AFTER TAU 36 BUT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. LIMITED AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression Aere

#49 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:32 am

WDPN33 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE)
WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 54 NM
NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 130521Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION, WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON BOTH THE EAST AND WEST
PERIPHERIES. A 130238Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC
WITH 25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE REFERENCED ASCAT IMAGE AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES HELD CONSTANT AT T1.5 (25 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW COMBINED WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD AERE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD AERE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OVER WATER AND IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL DISRUPT THE WIND FIELD AND
LIMIT THE PEAK INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU
12. TD AERE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU
36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED DUE THE RECENT REGENERATION OF
TD AERE, HOWEVER AVAILABLE TRACKERS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AS THE
SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND DISSIPATES OVERLAND, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression Aere

#50 Postby kala » Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:19 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression Aere

#51 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:28 pm

Aere may have been right on the edge of regaining tropical storm intensity just before landfall. ASCAT did have two 35 kt vectors near the center.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression Aere

#52 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:51 pm

WTPN33 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (AERE) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 16.6N 108.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 108.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.5N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.0N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 107.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 36 NM NORTH
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. 131500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 107.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 36 NM NORTH
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING SYSTEM. A 131125Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION FORMING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AS IT MOVES OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF VIETNAM WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, GIVING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS). DUE TO THE WEAKENING TREND
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE OPPORTUNITY OFOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION HAS LIKELY PASSED. TD AERE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD MAKING LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY
TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z
IS 9 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 24W (SARIKA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z
IS 9 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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