#12 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:07 am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 146.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY
300 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD TURNING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER IT. A 030017Z AMSU-B 89GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE BROAD, ELONGATED LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 5-10 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND FURTHER CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE BROAD LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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NWS for the Western Pacifichttps://www.weather.gov/gum/