ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#581 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sun Oct 16, 2016 9:25 pm

Like the old saying goes, life begins at 40.

Degrees North, that is.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#582 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2016 5:21 am

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016

Nicole continues to exhibit a tropical appearance on satellite
imagery, with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a large ragged
eye. The current intensity is reduced to 65 kt based on recent
scatterometer data, and this is also consistent with the latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Although not much weakening
is anticipated during the next couple of days, the cyclone is now
expected to lose tropical characteristics in 24 hours since, by that
time, it should be over SSTs colder than 20 deg C. Soon thereafter,
the system is forecast to become attached to a nearby frontal zone
and make the transition into a vigorous extratropical cyclone. By
96 hours, global models show the low being absorbed by another large
extratropical cyclone near Greenland.

Nicole continues to move northeastward at around 8 kt. The system
has yet to get caught up in the stronger mid-latitude westerlies
that lie just to the north. However, a shortwave trough moving
through Atlantic Canada should cause Nicole to accelerate
northeastward soon. As the trough amplifies, the cyclone is likely
to continue to accelerate and turn north-northeastward to northward
later in the forecast period.

The 12-ft seas radii and predicted wind radii, as well as the
position and intensity forecasts are mainly based on analyses and
forecasts from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 41.0N 45.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 42.5N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 18/1800Z 51.5N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/0600Z 56.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0600Z 65.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#583 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:48 am

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016

Nicole is still maintaining its status as a hurricane. The latest
satellite images show a ragged eye feature with broken bands of
deep convection around the eye and to the west of the center. The
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain 4.0/65 kt,
therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. Nicole
will likely become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or early Tuesday
when it moves over SSTs colder than 20 deg C and begins to interact
with a frontal zone. Little change in intensity is expected even
after post-tropical transition occurs, and Nicole is forecast to
become an even larger cyclone over the north Atlantic during the
next couple of days.

The hurricane is moving slowly northeastward at 8 kt as it remains
cut off from the stronger mid-latitude flow. A mid- to upper-level
trough currently over Atlantic Canada is expected to move eastward,
which should cause Nicole to accelerate north-northeastward to
northeastward during the next couple of days. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in best agreement
with the various consensus aids.

The main hazard associated with Nicole continues to be the large
area of high seas. Swells from Nicole will continue to affect much
of the north Atlantic basin during the next couple of days.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from
NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 41.4N 44.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 43.6N 42.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 48.2N 39.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/0000Z 53.4N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/1200Z 57.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#584 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:30 am

Man, she's really lasted long.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#585 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:51 pm

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016

Although Nicole is still a hurricane with a large ragged eye, it is
is steadily losing its appearance as a tropical cyclone in satellite
imagery. During the past six hours, the cloud pattern has become
elongated northeast-to-southwest and convection has weakened
considerably in the eyewall with only a small patch of cloud tops
to -50 deg C remaining in the southeastern quadrant. The Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB have been holding steady at
T4.0/65 kt, which is the initial intensity used for this advisory.
Nicole is currently located over 21 deg C SSTs and the cyclone will
be moving over cooler waters of less than 18 deg C in 12 h, which
should extinguish any remaining instability and convection. As a
result, Nicole is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later
tonight or Tuesday morning.

The initial motion estimate is 040/22 kt. Nicole is getting picked
up by an approaching strong mid-/upper-level shortwave trough. As
the amplifying trough digs to the southwest of Nicole, the hurricane
is forecast to continue to accelerate toward the northeast tonight,
followed by north-northeastward turn on Tuesday, which will take the
cyclone over the cold waters of the far North Atlantic during the
next three days. Nicole is expected to be absorbed by a larger
extratropical low off of the east coast of Greenland by 72 h. The
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is in
best agreement with the GFS-ECMWF model consensus.

The main hazard associated with Nicole will continue to be the large
area of high seas. Swells from Nicole will affect much of the North
Atlantic basin during the next couple of days.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 42.7N 42.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 45.4N 40.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 18/1800Z 51.0N 37.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/0600Z 56.5N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/1800Z 61.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#586 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:59 pm

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 56
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016

The old adage about tropical cyclones transitioning to extratropical
once the latitude is larger than the longitude does not apply to
Nicole. The system has been able to maintain a coherent inner core
of deep convection, which wraps about two-thirds the way around its
center. This is, however, somewhat reduced from earlier today and
the Dvorak data-t numbers from TAFB and SAB have dropped. A just
arriving ASCAT-A scatterometer pass from 0019Z indicates that peak
winds are about 60 kt and this may be a bit generous. Thus Nicole
has weakened to a tropical storm.

Nicole's resilience as a tropical cyclone is likely due to it being
embedded within very low vertical shear and in quite cold upper
tropospheric temperatures, despite the SSTs dropping to near 20 deg
C. However, Nicole should soon transition to an extratropical
cyclone, as frontal boundaries develop near the center of the system
by tomorrow. Even though it will become extratropical, it is
anticipated that Nicole will remain a large and powerful system for
the next couple of days before being absorbed by a separate
extratropical cyclone in about three days. The intensity forecast is
slightly less than that from the previous advisory because of the
lowered initial intensity and is based upon a deterministic global
model consensus.

Nicole is moving toward the northeast at about 22 kt, as it is being
advected along in the deep layer southwesterly flow ahead of a
shortwave trough over eastern Canada. A 2019Z AMSU pass and the
ASCAT-A scatterometer pass indicated that the surface center is
somewhat west of where the center appears to be from the infrared
imagery. Nicole should accelerate and turn toward the north by
tomorrow. This track forecast is similar to that from the previous
advisory and is based upon a blend of the deterministic and ensemble
global models.

The main hazard associated with Nicole will continue to be the large
area of high seas. Swells from Nicole will affect much of the North
Atlantic basin during the next couple of days.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 44.8N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 48.3N 37.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 19/0000Z 54.5N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/1200Z 59.0N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/0000Z 65.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#587 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 18, 2016 5:00 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2016

Nicole is finally losing its tropical cyclone characteristics as it
merges with a frontal system over the cold waters of the North
Atlantic. The circulation is becoming elongated with the remaining
deep convection in a band well to the east of the center. The
initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on a combination of
satellite intensity estimates and earlier scatterometer data.
The post-tropical cyclone is expected to complete extratropical
transition in the next 12 hours, the it should continue as a
vigorous extratropical storm through 36 hours before it is absorbed
by another extratropical low.

The initial motion is 030/27. The cyclone should continue quickly
north-northeastward on the east side on a deep layer trough over
the Labrador Sea until the cyclone dissipates.

The main hazard associated with the post-tropical cyclone will
continue to be the large area of high seas. Swells from the system
will affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next couple
of days.

This is the last advisory on Nicole issued by the National
Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 47.1N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 18/1800Z 51.7N 36.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 19/0600Z 57.0N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/1800Z 62.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#588 Postby Macrocane » Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:21 pm

Bye Nicole!
What an interesting and persistent system you were.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#589 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 20, 2016 1:03 pm

Macrocane wrote:Bye Nicole!
What an interesting and persistent system you were.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohXI3po8hK0
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