ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Can't say I've ever personally seen two hurricanes this close together before.

[AutoPenalti]

What changes now with interaction of Matthew?

[Exalt]

What changes now with interaction of Matthew?

I don't think much will happen really since Nicole is such a small and weaker storm in comparison.

[Hammy]

90kt as of latest best track.

[CrazyC83]

We might get the 3rd major of the year with this.

[Ptarmigan]

I never thought Nicole would become a hurricane.

[Ptarmigan]

We might get the 3rd major of the year with this.

I am thinking that too. Intensity forecast got it wrong with Matthew.

[Kazmit]

Wow, never thought we'd see more than a TS from this. Now it could become a major hurricane. Two simultaneous majors would be cool.

[abajan]

90kt as of latest best track.

I'm sure Bermudians are taking note.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016

...NICOLE BECOMES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 65.2W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was
located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 65.2 West. Nicole is
currently stationary but is expected to drift generally southward on
Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165
km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is likely to begin on
Friday with Nicole.

Nicole is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf
conditions, will affect Bermuda for the next few days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016

Nicole has rapidly intensified during the day, with a pinhole eye
apparent in satellite and microwave imagery. Although the eye has
recently become obscured, Dvorak satellite estimates support an
initial intensity of 90 kt for this advisory. All of the guidance
suggests that the shear near Nicole should increase during the next
couple of days since the tropical cyclone will be in an environment
of increasingly strong upper-level northerly winds. Thus Nicole
is probably near its peak intensity, and slow weakening is forecast
from Friday through the weekend. The large-scale environment
could become more conducive for re-intensification by days 4 or 5,
and some restrengthening is shown around that time. The new
intensity forecast is very close to the previous one, slightly above
the model consensus.

Nicole has moved very little during the past several hours. The
hurricane will likely begin to drift southward by tomorrow
afternoon due to steering from the western side of a mid-level
trough. Thereafter, Nicole could gradually turn toward the
southwest, west, and northwest over the next few days around a
ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean. There is better agreement in
the guidance than yesterday, although the ECMWF remains a bit of an
outlier solution to the east. Since a stronger system would likely
respond more to the deep-layer northerly flow, the new NHC track is
shifted a bit to the south of the previous forecast in a couple of
days, but ends up close to the last NHC advisory by day 5.

A climate note: This is the first time since September 10, 1964
that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred
simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W. Interestingly,
those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions
as Matthew and Nicole are now.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 27.4N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 27.3N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 26.8N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 26.1N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 25.5N 64.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 26.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 27.5N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 29.0N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

[Hammy]

NHC has this weakening to TS in about 72 hours and becoming a hurricane again in five days. What probably all of us expected would be a short-lived name checked off the list could be around for awhile.

[CrazyC83]

NHC has this weakening to TS in about 72 hours and becoming a hurricane again in five days. What probably all of us expected would be a short-lived name checked off the list could be around for awhile.

It will likely be the third largest ACE producer in the end. Some models actually slam it hard into Bermuda.

[EquusStorm]

Matthew has been incredible, but Nicole might be one of the biggest surprises of the year.

[galaxy401]

From advisory discussion:

A climate note: This is the first time since September 10, 1964
that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred
simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W. Interestingly,
those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions
as Matthew and Nicole are now.

[wxmann_91]

The (actual, not NHC advisory) maximum sustained winds in Nicole might have been stronger than the maximum sustained winds in Matthew a couple of hours ago.

[Ptarmigan]

Matthew has been incredible, but Nicole might be one of the biggest surprises of the year.

Nicole is in the shadow of Matthew. It has been overlooked.

[rog]

Amazing Nicole has been upped to a Cat2 now.

[HurricaneRyan]

Where is the infrared for this?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Its going to wreck a lot of the preseason ACE forecasts...but its now looking like the shear is getting the best of it. With these small storms...quick up...quick down

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2016

Nicole no longer has an eye in infrared satellite imagery, and the
cloud pattern suggests that 30 kt of northwesterly shear is
beginning to offset the deep convection to the southeast of the
center. Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased,
so the initial intensity is set at 85 kt as a blend of the final-T
and CI numbers. Strong vertical shear is expected to persist over
Nicole, increasing and turning out of the north during the next
several days. As a result, continued weakening is anticipated, and
the intensity models indicate that Nicole's winds should gradually
diminish in strength through day 4. By day 5, the vertical shear
may decrease, and Nicole could regain some strength at the end of
the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows
the ICON intensity consensus, which puts it slightly below the
previous forecast for much of the forecast period.

There has been no recent microwave data to help locate the center,
but cloud motions suggest that Nicole is drifting southward. The
overall steering currents are expected to remain weak for several
more days. However, for the next 48 hours, Nicole will be situated
between a digging shortwave trough and a mid-level high between it
and Hurricane Matthew, which should cause Nicole to move slowly
southward. After that time, the cyclone could be close enough to
Matthew's circulation to cause it to turn northward. While the
track models don't agree on how far south Nicole will move, they do
all generally show the same solutions of very little net motion
through five days. The updated NHC track is adjusted from the
previous track forecast toward the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 27.3N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 27.0N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 26.1N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 25.2N 64.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.8N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 25.4N 65.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 27.5N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg