ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ohitsdatguy]

Looks like the shear Nicole's been ignoring has finally caught up to it. The center of circulation is completely exposed, not unlike Matthew's was for a bit.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

[SEASON_CANCELED]

We in florida will have to watch nicole its looking like its really unsure what it wants to do.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2016

Strong shear has taken its toll on Nicole overnight. The cyclone's
cloud pattern has rapidly deteriorated, with the low-level center
now exposed to the northwest of a greatly reduced area of deep
convection. Dvorak Final T-numbers have decreased quickly to T3.5
from SAB and TAFB, and a blend of these and CI-numbers was used to
set the initial intensity to 65 kt at 1200 UTC. Since the cloud
pattern has degraded even further since that time, the advisory
intensity is lowered to 60 kt, which could prove to be generous.

Nicole has barely been moving, and the initial motion estimate
is nearly stationary. Although Nicole remains in a region of weak
steering at the moment, a blocking mid-level high should build
north of the cyclone soon, and impart a slow motion generally
toward the south for the next couple of days. Around 48 hours, a
mid-level ridge is forecast to develop to the east of Nicole, which
should result in the cyclone gradually turning northward with
some increase in forward speed through the remainder of the
forecast period. Most of the model guidance is in better agreement
than yesterday on this scenario, which increases the overall
confidence of the track forecast. The new track forecast is based
on a consensus of the regional and global models minus the GFDL.

A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough digging to the east
of Nicole should cause deep-layer northerly shear over the cyclone
to increase further today. In the wake of the shortwave, the shear
should veer to the north-northeast but remain just as strong
through about 72 hours. Nicole is also shown interacting with a lobe
of vorticity that fractures from the shortwave, but it remains
unclear how this interaction would affect the cyclone's intensity or
structure. Regardless, the overall hostile environment should cause
weakening, perhaps even more than indicated in this forecast.
Indications are that late in the forecast period the large- scale
environment should become more conducive for Nicole to re-intensify,
but to what extent is in doubt. As a result of developments
overnight, the new intensity forecast is substantially lower than
the previous one and is below all of the intensity guidance through
72 hours. It is near the multi-model consensus after that time,
although this part of the forecast is of low confidence.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 27.5N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.0N 65.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 26.1N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 25.4N 64.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 25.3N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 26.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 28.8N 66.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 32.0N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[HurricaneRyan]

Not surprising that this is downgraded to a tropical storm

[tolakram]

12z GFS

[SEASON_CANCELED]

12z GFS

If Matthew kept some intensity 90-102 hours wouldn't the Fujiwhara effect throw it back into South of Middle florida and nicole into South Georgia?? Or do we poorly understand the Phenomenon and cant really predict it?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2016

Nicole is a heavily sheared tropical cyclone. The well-defined
low-level center is partially exposed on the northwest side of a
bursting mass of deep convection. Dvorak Final-T numbers have
continued to decrease to T3.0 from both satellite agencies, and a
blend of those with CI-numbers yields an initial intensity of
55 kt.

Nicole has begun to move southward, and the initial motion estimate
is 185/04. A blocking high north of Nicole should continue to push
the cyclone slowly southward during the next couple of days. After
that time, the mid-level ridge is forecast to rebuild east of
Nicole, and there is the potential for a binary interaction with
weakening Matthew to the west in 2 to 3 days. This should cause
Nicole to do an about-face and begin moving northwestward or
north-northwestward from days 2 to 4. A turn toward the north is
expected by day 5 once the binary interaction ends and Nicole is on
the cusp of entering a stronger mid-latitude southwesterly flow.
Although the bulk of the model guidance is in basic agreement with
this scenario, there are speed differences amongst the models that
make the track forecast of lower confidence than average.

Global models show no diminution of the northerly shear over
Nicole for the next two days or so. A further complication is
Nicole's interaction during this same time period with a fractured
lobe of vorticity from a shortwave trough to the east that wraps
around the circulation. The net result of all of this is that the
cyclone could weaken a bit further or remain steady state as a weak
tropical storm for 2 to 3 days, which is what the official forecast
and SHIPS model output indicates. After that time, the shear is
forecast to decrease and the flow aloft is likely to become much
more diffluent, both of which support some re-intensification. This
is shown in the latter part of the forecast period, which likewise
is in good agreement with SHIPS model output.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 27.0N 65.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 26.2N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 25.4N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 25.1N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 25.5N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 27.4N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 29.7N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 32.6N 66.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[weathaguyry]

Hey, this may sound 1000% ridiculous, but is there a chance that this could get thrown west and not have enough time to turn back out to sea, and end up scraping the NEUS? Just noticed that Nantucket was in the Wind Speed Probabilities at 5PM, and GFS has shown Nicole being thrown west at some point in time. Just that up here on LI, Matthew is no threat anymore, so I'm looking for the next threat here (Not to downplay the situations elsewhere, praying for my family in Florida, and all others in the SE)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2016

Strong northerly shear continues to cause all of Nicole's deep
convection to be located in the southern semicircle of the storm.
The deep convection has been going up and down, very typical
for this type of sheared tropical cyclone. ASCAT showed a sizable
area of winds near 45 kt, and after considering the low bias of
the instrument for a small tropical cyclone, the initial wind speed
is reduced to 50 kt. This is also consistent with a blend of the
Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB.

Nicole is moving southward at about 6 kt. A motion toward the south
or south-southeast is anticipated for the next day or so while the
tropical cyclone is steered on the east side of a mid-level high
between Nicole and Matthew. The forecast gets very tricky in a
couple of days, with the mid-level high breaking down and Matthew
probably moving toward Nicole. The possibility of tropical cyclone
binary interaction appears to be increasing, which could cause
Nicole to move toward the north or north-northwest in the 3 to 5 day
period. The details of this interaction, however, are very sketchy,
with models presenting a variety of fairly divergent solutions. The
new NHC forecast is close to the ensemble means of the UKMET, ECMWF
and GFS, which ends up south of the previous forecast at short
range, and to the east of the previous forecast at long range. These
are relatively small changes since it is probably best not to move
the forecast very much until the models come into better agreement
on the final phase of Matthew.

Northerly shear is forecast to continue near Nicole over the next
two or three days. Models do not show as much weakening as one
might think, perhaps due to the very warm water that Nicole will be
traversing, or due to Nicole's possible interaction with a shortwave
trough. After that time, global models generally show a decrease
in shear and a diffluent upper-level pattern, which would support
some restrengthening. The model guidance is slightly higher than the
last cycle, and the latest NHC prediction is nudged in that
direction, although the new forecast is on the low side of the
guidance.

Needless to say, this is a fairly uncertain forecast overall
because Matthew could play a large role in a few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 26.3N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 25.5N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 24.7N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 24.8N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 25.5N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 27.7N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 30.5N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 33.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[GCANE]

Amazing how that ULL decimated Nicole. I don't think I have ever seen a TC taken out so fast in open water.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2016

Nicole's structure has changed dramatically just within the past
six hours due to about 45 kt of northerly shear. The deep
convection is now oriented linearly from east to west and is
displaced more than 100 n mi to the south of the exposed low-level
center. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers have dropped to 3.0 from
TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, and Nicole's initial intensity is
lowered to 45 kt.

Deep-layer northerly flow continues to push Nicole southward, and
the initial motion is estimated to be 190/6 kt. The winds on the
west side of a mid-level low should continue forcing Nicole
generally southward for the next 24-36 hours until these two
systems become collocated with one another. After 36 hours, Nicole
is expected to be steered back toward the north, ahead of Hurricane
Matthew's remnant mid-level circulation. There are some
differences among the track models associated with exactly how
the interaction between Nicole and Matthew will play out. The
notable outlier is the ECMWF model, which swings Nicole
northwestward and then westward around the north side of Matthew
after 48 hours. In deference to this model, the new NHC track
forecast is a little west and slower than the previous forecast,
and it lies very close to an average of the GFS and ECMWF models.

The vertical shear affecting Nicole is expected to remain high for
several more days, possibly not dropping below 20 kt until after 72
hours. Still, sea surface temperatures will remain between 29 and
30C, so Nicole may be able to continue producing bursts of deep
convection that will prevent its intensity from decreasing much.
Some restrengthening at the end of the forecast period is possible,
although trends are suggesting that the shear may once again
increase by day 5. Based on the latest guidance, the official
intensity forecast is lowered by 5 kt for much of the forecast
period. If the shear wins out, however, then Nicole's intensity
could end up being lower than shown in the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 25.9N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 25.2N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.7N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.8N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 25.4N 65.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 28.0N 66.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 30.0N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 32.5N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern has further deteriorated this morning. The
low-level center has been exposed, with generally only shallow
convection on the southern and eastern periphery of the cyclone's
circulation. A new burst of deeper convection has developed
southeast of the center in the last couple of hours, however. Dvorak
Final-T numbers continue to decrease, and a blend of those data and
CI-numbers support lowering the initial intensity estimate to 35 kt.

Nicole is moving just west of due south or 190/06. A blocking high
north of the cyclone should continue to push it southward for about
24 hours. Nicole should then reverse its heading and turn north-
northwestward, when the mid-level high shifts to its northeast. A
potential complication to the track forecast is the degree to which
Nicole interacts with Matthew or its remnants, beginning in 2 to 3
days through the latter part of the forecast period. The ECMWF
shows a stronger binary interaction and draws Nicole much farther
west than the GFS after 72 hours, and the differences in the models
by 96 hours become extreme. The track forecast philosophy continues
to closely follow a blend of the ECMWF and GFS model solutions,
though slightly more weight has been placed on the GFS-based
guidance since a sizable number of ECMWF ensemble members are east
of its deterministic run. Admittedly, the forecast on days 4 and 5
are of low confidence.

The shear is forecast to be so strong in the short term that one
might be tempted to call for Nicole to degenerate to a remnant low,
especially given its current satellite appearance. However, the
shear is forecast to nominally decrease, when the tail of a mid-
to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic fractures and
becomes co-located with the tropical cyclone during the next day
or so. How the merger of the two affects Nicole's intensity
and structure remains unclear. Nonetheless, the large-scale
conditions are shown to become less hostile in 2 to 4 days, and it
seems plausible that some re-intensification of the cyclone could
occur before becoming less favorable again by day 5. The new
intensity forecast is somewhat lower than the previous one and below
the multi-model consensus, and continues to show a modest recovery
after 72 hours. The intensity forecast continues to be of low
confidence in the long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 25.2N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 24.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 24.2N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 24.8N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.7N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 28.3N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 33.4N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[abajan]

Convection re-firing near Nicole's CoC:



She's making a comeback!

[Kazmit]

Convection re-firing near Nicole's CoC:



She's making a comeback!

She got sheared to bits, but that does look like a decent fire-up there. If it's restrengthening it isn't good news for Bermuda, but they handle storms well.

[Kazmit]

[abajan]

Convection re-firing near Nicole's CoC:

http://i.imgur.com/rpbjfo8.gif

She's making a comeback!

She got sheared to bits, but that does look like a decent fire-up there. If it's restrengthening it isn't good news for Bermuda, but they handle storms well.

Yeah, they certainly can. Have a look at how the convection has bloomed since my earlier post:



EDIT: I see you're already aware of it.

[Nimbus]

Looks like some ridging got between Nicole and Matthew. I was hoping a strong trough would move off the east coast but some of the models had remnants diving into the Caribbean.

[terstorm1012]

maybe it's not Matthew that makes the loop (which I started doubting yesterday) but Nicole that comes to pay Florida a visit. Gonna be a weird couple days watching this

[Hammy]

Latest Euro showing Nicole regaining hurricane intensity possibly around 36 hours.

[Emmett_Brown]

Nicole looking very healthy at the moment