ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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abajan
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#461 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:28 am

Cyclenall wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:I remember a lot of the recent storms that have hit, nearly hit, or skirted Bermuda... Fabian, Florence, Igor, Fay, Gonzalo, Joaquin, etc... and it seems like most of them were long-anticipated with plenty of warning, media activity, et cetera, but Nicole's threat just feels like it popped up in the middle of the night out of a clear sky without warning. Which, in all honesty, it over-performed and it WAS kind of unexpected.

That's how it always is now, the long-anticipated and hyped up events end up under-performing and vice-versa. I remember on TV Nicole being mentioned with a "it is far from Bermuda" line but that was 5 or so days ago.

How this TC has panned out is very impressive, back when it was still a wave I thought it probably wouldn't amount to much. Best looking TC of the season too despite not being a CAT5 hurricane. What is the most shocking of all is that there is no other instance of 2 CAT4's occurring in October in the Atlantic since recording keeping began...that really amazes me :eek: . I thought for sure it happened not long ago :lol: . Same for Bermuda not being hit by any category 4 hurricanes but Nicole won't be the first (NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such.)

Nicole won't be a Cat 4 when it hits Bermuda. Its maximum sustained winds are already down to 125 mph and I think they should be down to 120 mph by the time the eyewall gets there.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#462 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:32 am



Looks like my earlier prediction that the eye would pass to the southeast of the islands was correct. I should've stuck to my guns! :lol:
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#463 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:43 am

I went to bed early last night, so I didn't know it'd made it to Cat 4. Looks like now southwesterly shear is taking its toll and the eye is going to miss, which is good. Still, 2 Cat 4s in October. I almost expect a Cat 5 in November now.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#464 Postby Nimbus » Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:49 am

abajan wrote:


Looks like my earlier prediction that the eye would pass to the southeast of the islands was correct. I should've stuck to my guns! :lol:


Starting to pick up forward speed maybe they will only get Cat 2 winds in the outer eyewall on that side of the storm?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#465 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:51 am

terstorm1012 wrote:I went to bed early last night, so I didn't know it'd made it to Cat 4. Looks like now southwesterly shear is taking its toll and the eye is going to miss, which is good. Still, 2 Cat 4s in October. I almost expect a Cat 5 in November now.

Yeah, I was kinda wondering if you'd simply gone to bed before the 11 PM advisory. As to the possibility of a Cat 5 in November, I won't rule it out, but I feel we'll see something form next month, whether it becomes just a tropical storm or a hurricane, idk.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#466 Postby Andy_L » Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:54 am

anyone able to get the Port webcam in Bermuda working this morning or is it offline now?

http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#467 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:57 am

Alyono wrote:I would also go with 110 kts on this advisory, but would forecast 115 kts at Bermuda

Would be significantly worse than Fabian

Now that the eye is currently passing south of Bermuda at a pretty decent clip (just as I'd suspected it would, except for a recent post) and it's weakening, I doubt conditions in Bermuda will get quite as bad as they were with Fabian.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#468 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:13 am

Andy_L wrote:anyone able to get the Port webcam in Bermuda working this morning or is it offline now?

http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/


use these

http://bernews.com/2016/10/live-video-h ... pproaches/
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#469 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:16 am

Pearl Island in western Bermuda now reporting substained hurricane force winds gusting to 95 mph!
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#470 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:17 am

Bermuda has even better infrastructure than the bahamas, if you have been there you know..power outages yes but it will be a quick recovery....take a 4 or 5 to really put them on their heels

been listening to 810 am from the Bahamas this week..Nassau really took it on the chin from matthew, strong building codes there but the eyewall really gave them a shot
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#471 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:21 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Andy_L wrote:anyone able to get the Port webcam in Bermuda working this morning or is it offline now?

http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/


use these

http://bernews.com/2016/10/live-video-h ... pproaches/


Incredible whiteout conditions, strongest convection of the eyewall right over the Island.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#472 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:23 am

NDG wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Andy_L wrote:anyone able to get the Port webcam in Bermuda working this morning or is it offline now?

http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/


use these

http://bernews.com/2016/10/live-video-h ... pproaches/


Incredible whiteout conditions, strongest convection of the eyewall right over the Island.


yes it really ramped up last 30 mins...someone just wiped off the camera 1
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#473 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:25 am

jlauderdal wrote:
NDG wrote:


Incredible whiteout conditions, strongest convection of the eyewall right over the Island.


yes it really ramped up last 30 mins...someone just wiped off the camera 1


Yeah, I saw that, didn't helped much, can barely see across the street, incredible!
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#474 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:25 am

jlauderdal wrote:
NDG wrote:


Incredible whiteout conditions, strongest convection of the eyewall right over the Island.


yes it really ramped up last 30 mins...someone just wiped off the camera 1


Yeah, I saw that, didn't helped much, can barely see across the street, incredible!
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#475 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:27 am

Wow watched the videos, crazy whiteout conditions in Bermuda :eek:
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#476 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:27 am

105 mph wind gusts now reported at Pearl Island.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#477 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:30 am

AF309 0515A NICOLE HDOB 27 20161013
131700 3155N 06459W 6973 02793 9579 +166 +095 322004 013 038 002 03
131730 3156N 06457W 6967 02801 9583 +160 +092 125004 005 042 001 03
131800 3158N 06456W 6963 02801 9590 +159 +065 134010 011 040 002 00
131830 3159N 06454W 6965 02804 9590 +161 +060 121014 015 040 001 03
131900 3200N 06453W 6962 02808 9589 +161 +059 135015 015 040 000 03
131930 3201N 06451W 6962 02814 9596 +159 +059 134013 015 043 002 00
132000 3203N 06450W 6967 02808 9603 +154 +066 134016 017 043 000 00
132030 3204N 06448W 6962 02814 9606 +149 +090 141025 030 052 002 00
132100 3205N 06447W 6966 02816 9631 +129 +110 142039 041 060 004 00
132130 3207N 06445W 6968 02825 9644 +126 +116 139051 054 071 005 00
132200 3208N 06444W 6967 02829 9654 +125 +115 142057 062 078 005 00
132230 3209N 06442W 6957 02859 9668 +124 +117 146068 074 078 010 00
132300 3210N 06441W 6963 02864 9710 +117 +117 152075 076 083 014 00
132330 3212N 06439W 6963 02872 9732 +115 +115 156083 087 085 016 00
132400 3213N 06437W 6968 02883 9756 +112 +112 154093 097 087 028 00
132430 3214N 06436W 6972 02895 9775 +112 +112 149096 098 089 029 00
132500 3216N 06434W 6965 02917 9790 +111 +111 149098 099 089 031 00
132530 3217N 06433W 6967 02928 9806 +110 +110 148097 100 086 032 00
132600 3218N 06431W 6958 02951 9821 +109 +109 147100 101 080 035 00
132630 3219N 06430W 6962 02955 9837 +107 +107 145102 102 076 030 00

(SLP 957 extrapolated)
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#478 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:31 am

gatorcane wrote:Wow watched the videos, crazy whiteout conditions in Bermuda :eek:


look at how well the flat tile roof is doing....i had one of those until two years ago, now i have s tile, yikes in a big breeze..we just lost camera 1
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#479 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:33 am

Screen snap picture of the first video before going offline.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#480 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:33 am

Wow, the wind. Just really whipping in spurts...
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