ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
ronyan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 709
Age: 31
Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2008 5:46 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#501 Postby ronyan » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:10 am

NDG wrote:
ronyan wrote:
NDG wrote:Pearl Island started reporting again, pressure down to 962mb.


Can you give the link for this station?


http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?na ... RAPH&user=


Great, thanks. I was at that website but didn't realize the graphics would be updating like that.
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3217
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Rendezvous Hill, Christ Church, Barbados

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#502 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:10 am

NDG wrote:
abajan wrote:
Ken711 wrote:Is the eye suppose to come directly inland over Bermuda?

No, it's passing just to the south, from what I can tell. They're getting slammed by the eyewall, though.


Southern half of the Island now in the eye, per radar.

http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?na ... 0SRI&user=

Indeed. Satellite imagery can be off but radar doesn't lie! :oops:
0 likes   

ronyan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 709
Age: 31
Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2008 5:46 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#503 Postby ronyan » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:13 am

The international airport was reporting 77 mph sustained G 104 but it's hasn't updated recently. Looks like they are getting into the eye at Pearl Island, wind speed dropping sharply at that station.
Last edited by ronyan on Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8943
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#504 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:16 am

abajan wrote:
NDG wrote:
abajan wrote:No, it's passing just to the south, from what I can tell. They're getting slammed by the eyewall, though.


Southern half of the Island now in the eye, per radar.

http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?na ... 0SRI&user=

Indeed. Satellite imagery can be off but radar doesn't lie! :oops:


Recon is about to penetrate the eye, it should find the lowest pressure very close to the Island now, Pearl Island's pressure down to 960 mb with winds only near 30 knots now.
0 likes   

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5114
Age: 51
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#505 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:17 am

we lost both cameras...those boats were in bad shape
1 likes   

Ken711
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 510
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#506 Postby Ken711 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:22 am

jlauderdal wrote:we lost both cameras...those boats were in bad shape


Yes, saw to the left of the video frame the boats were banging into each other after breaking free of their mooring.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26852
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#507 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:24 am

Based on the surface data, it looks like the landfall pressure is about 958mb.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8943
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#508 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:28 am

Recon found lowest pressure just off Bermuda, western half of the eye going over Bermuda now.

Image
0 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26852
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#509 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:30 am

The jog east may have helped Bermuda, since on land so far the winds have been of Category 1 intensity.
0 likes   

HenkL
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2391
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
Contact:

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#510 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:32 am

URNT12 KNHC 131429
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152016
A. 13/14:16:00Z
B. 32 deg 13 min N
064 deg 48 min W
C. 700 mb 2762 m
D. 87 kt
E. 270 deg 15 nm
F. 010 deg 70 kt
G. 270 deg 15 nm
H. 961 mb
I. 15 C / 3043 m
J. 17 C / 3049 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0515A NICOLE OB 09
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 111 KT 127 / 30 NM 14:26:10Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 005 / 5 KT
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8756
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: NICOLE: Local observations , Web Cams , Local statements: Bermuda

#511 Postby artist » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:45 am

My thoughts and prayers are they can handle this one as well as the others before her.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26852
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#512 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:45 am

Also I would set the landfall intensity at 95 kt given the Recon data.
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3217
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Rendezvous Hill, Christ Church, Barbados

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#513 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:47 am

CrazyC83 wrote:The jog east may have helped Bermuda, since on land so far the winds have been of Category 1 intensity.

Definitely. Had it passed on the northwestern side, things would've been far worse.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26852
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#514 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:48 am

abajan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The jog east may have helped Bermuda, since on land so far the winds have been of Category 1 intensity.

Definitely. Had it passed on the northwestern side, things would've been far worse.


Also the fact it weakened helped as well. I think it is down to a Cat 2 now.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 110084
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#515 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:55 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016

...EYE OF NICOLE PASSING OVER BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 64.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was
located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 64.6 West. Nicole is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northeastward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next day or
so. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move away
from Bermuda this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nicole is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

Nicole is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). An automated
surface station on Pearl Island in Bermuda measured sustained
winds of 87 mph (141 km/h) with a gust to 119 mph (191 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 961 mb (28.38 inches). The official reporting station
on Bermuda recently reported a pressure of 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Do not venture out in the eye. Although winds in eye are
light, hurricane conditions will return soon after the eye
passes and will continue through early afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions will continue through this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 8 inches over Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days, and will spread northward along the United States
east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few days.
These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.
Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office
for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg


HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016

Southwesterly shear is beginning to affect Nicole. Microwave
imagery and Bermuda radar indicate that the eye has lost some
definition and become open to the south. There is also a
significant southwest to northeast tilt between the low-level
center as noted between the radar and satellite presentations
of the eye, and the Air Force center fix that was located near the
extreme western part of the eye seen in satellite imagery. The Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has not yet sampled the
eastern portion of the eyewall where the strongest winds were
reported overnight, however, they have reported a minimum pressure
961 mb, which is up several millibars since the previous fix. Based
on the most recent aircraft data and satellite intensity estimates,
the initial wind speed has been set at 105 kt for this advisory.
Although the area of strongest winds in the eastern eyewall are
expected to remain offshore of Bermuda, sustained hurricane-force
winds have been reported on the island during the past couple of
hours. The official observing site at the airport has measured
sustained winds of 67 kt with a gust to 90 kt within the past hour.

Increasingly southwesterly shear and slightly lower sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track of Nicole should cause a
gradual decrease in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours.
After that time, baroclinic forcing is forecast by the global
models to keep Nicole an intense low pressure area over the
north Atlantic through early next week. The days 3-5 intensity
forecast is in agreement with guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

Nicole has turned northeastward as expected. The hurricane will
move northeastward with some acceleration in forward speed as it
becomes embedded within southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough. The trough is forecast to bypass Nicole in a couple of
days, which is expected to cause the cyclone to slow down and
meander well southeast of Newfoundland late in the forecast period.
The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC is
again near the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 32.3N 64.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 33.8N 62.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 35.5N 58.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 37.0N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 38.3N 51.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 16/1200Z 39.0N 48.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 17/1200Z 39.0N 47.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 18/1200Z 41.0N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Ken711
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 510
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#516 Postby Ken711 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:59 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
abajan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The jog east may have helped Bermuda, since on land so far the winds have been of Category 1 intensity.

Definitely. Had it passed on the northwestern side, things would've been far worse.


Also the fact it weakened helped as well. I think it is down to a Cat 2 now.


That's good news to hear.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26852
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#517 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:01 am

Ken711 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
abajan wrote:Definitely. Had it passed on the northwestern side, things would've been far worse.


Also the fact it weakened helped as well. I think it is down to a Cat 2 now.


That's good news to hear.


Advisory keeps it at 105 kt, but the highest SFMR winds this flight were 91 kt that I have seen.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6861
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Location: Martin County, Florida

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#518 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:04 am

Image
Direct hit... Wow...
0 likes   
Resident of the Atlantic Basin's Hurricane Hit Capital!

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5114
Age: 51
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#519 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:18 am

Blown Away wrote:Image
Direct hit... Wow...


little speck in the ocean and it finds them..amazing how often they get hit
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3217
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Rendezvous Hill, Christ Church, Barbados

Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#520 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:19 am

Blown Away wrote:http://i64.tinypic.com/359wlc4.png
Direct hit... Wow...

The bigger wow factor is that that's pretty much what the NHC graphic had been showing for several days now.
0 likes   


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests