ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ronyan
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#521 Postby ronyan » Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:27 am

abajan wrote:
Blown Away wrote:http://i64.tinypic.com/359wlc4.png
Direct hit... Wow...

The bigger wow factor is that that's pretty much what the NHC graphic had been showing for several days now.


That's an impressive forecast, Bermuda is a tiny target compared to the open Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#522 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:11 pm

BWS - Bermuda Weather Service

1:15pm 13 OCT 2016
Bad news… with the NW winds a huge gust bust open a hatch on the weather radar and it is hanging loose. It has a fail switch attached to it which renders the radar out of service until it is physically shut. As it is too dangerous to go out in these conditions the weather radar will remain out of service until the technician can get out to it safely.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#523 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:43 pm

Bermuda Weather Service:

Hurricane force northwesterly winds continue to affect the Island, with speeds in excess of 70kts (80mph).
However, around noon today, with the eye of Nicole moving right over the Island, BWS was able to safely launch a weather balloon in just light and variable winds, and were then able to collect some very valuable data.
The graphic below represents that data and is called a skew-t log p diagram. It is essentially a type of thermodynamic diagram, showing how temperatures and humidity (x axis) vary with altitude (y axis) through the troposphere (the part of our atmosphere that holds our weather). Wind speeds are also displayed through several levels in the atmosphere.
No automatic alt text available.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#524 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:49 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016

...EYE OF NICOLE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...STRONG WINDS AND STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 63.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 63.8 West. Nicole is moving
toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A northeastward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move away from Bermuda
this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nicole is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Nicole is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Sustained winds of
64 mph (104 km/h) with a gust to 93 mph (150 km/h) have been
reported at the Bermuda airport within the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over Bermuda for a couple
of more hours, and tropical storm conditions will continue through
this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 8 inches over Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days, and will spread northward along the United
States east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few
days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip
currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local
weather office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#525 Postby Ken711 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:56 pm

ronyan wrote:
abajan wrote:
Blown Away wrote:http://i64.tinypic.com/359wlc4.png
Direct hit... Wow...

The bigger wow factor is that that's pretty much what the NHC graphic had been showing for several days now.


That's an impressive forecast, Bermuda is a tiny target compared to the open Atlantic.


According to the National Hurricane Center, only seven major hurricanes have passed within 40 nautical miles of Bermuda since records began in 1851.


They have had a long history of misses.
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Re: NICOLE: Local observations , Web Cams , Local statements: Bermuda

#526 Postby msbee » Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:43 pm

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#527 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:27 pm

Any damage reports yet?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#528 Postby msbee » Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:40 pm

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#529 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:45 pm

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016

Satellite imagery indicates that Nicole is weakening as it moves
away from Bermuda, most likely due to increasing southwesterly
vertical shear. The eye has mostly disappeared since the last
advisory, and there has been some warming of the cloud tops near the
center. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
are 102 and 90 kt, respectively, while the latest CIMSS ADT estimate
is 112 kt. The initial intensity is reduced to 95 kt based mainly
on the subjective estimates and continuity from earlier aircraft
data.

As mentioned in the previous advisory, increasing southwesterly
shear and slightly lower sea surface temperatures along the forecast
track should cause a gradual decrease in intensity during the next
24 to 36 hours. After that time, baroclinic forcing forecast by the
dynamical models should keep Nicole as an intense low pressure area
over the north Atlantic through early next week. What structure the
cyclone might have later in the forecast period is uncertain, with
the GFS and UKMET suggesting that the tropical cyclone warm core
could become secluded with no cold air reaching the center. Based
on this, the forecast continues to call for a post-tropical cyclone
and not a fully extratropical/frontal cyclone. The intensity
forecast is mainly an update of the previous forecast, and the 3-5
day intensity forecast is in agreement with guidance provided by the
NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

The initial motion is now 040/18. The hurricane will continue
northeastward as it becomes embedded within southwesterly flow ahead
of a mid-latitude trough. The dynamical guidance continues to
forecast that the trough should bypass Nicole in a couple of days,
which is expected to cause the cyclone to slow down and meander well
southeast of Newfoundland late in the forecast period. The track
guidance remains in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC is again
near the multi-model consensus and the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 33.6N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 35.0N 60.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 36.4N 56.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 37.8N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 38.8N 50.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 16/1800Z 39.0N 48.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 17/1800Z 39.6N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 18/1800Z 42.0N 41.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#530 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:45 pm

msbee wrote:http://www.royalgazette.com/live

As expected, they seemed to have pulled through pretty okay, save for some downed trees and a couple of walls. Major issue seems to be power outages but that should be rectified within a couple days, I guess. They probably have the best building codes in this hemisphere.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#531 Postby Ken711 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:42 pm

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 53m53 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA
Nicole departs, the Caribbean starts Pattern in line for end game storm in 6-10 days
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#532 Postby Ken711 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:44 pm

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago Pennsylvania, USA
Euro showing end game storm as per numerous tweets this week for next week . Pattern recognition.can it deliver 6th impact storm
Stay tuned
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#533 Postby JahJa » Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:57 pm

I can confirm no major damage. A few trees down but nothing major at all. Www.bernews.com has some pics and is kept up to date pretty well.

Thanks for all the well wishes and prayers; we can though ok!
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#534 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:06 pm

abajan wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:I remember a lot of the recent storms that have hit, nearly hit, or skirted Bermuda... Fabian, Florence, Igor, Fay, Gonzalo, Joaquin, etc... and it seems like most of them were long-anticipated with plenty of warning, media activity, et cetera, but Nicole's threat just feels like it popped up in the middle of the night out of a clear sky without warning. Which, in all honesty, it over-performed and it WAS kind of unexpected.

That's how it always is now, the long-anticipated and hyped up events end up under-performing and vice-versa. I remember on TV Nicole being mentioned with a "it is far from Bermuda" line but that was 5 or so days ago.

How this TC has panned out is very impressive, back when it was still a wave I thought it probably wouldn't amount to much. Best looking TC of the season too despite not being a CAT5 hurricane. What is the most shocking of all is that there is no other instance of 2 CAT4's occurring in October in the Atlantic since recording keeping began...that really amazes me :eek: . I thought for sure it happened not long ago :lol: . Same for Bermuda not being hit by any category 4 hurricanes but Nicole won't be the first (NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such.)

Nicole won't be a Cat 4 when it hits Bermuda. Its maximum sustained winds are already down to 125 mph and I think they should be down to 120 mph by the time the eyewall gets there.

Exactly, that's why I wrote Nicole won't be the first. I didn't even think it was going to make landfall based on its movement.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#535 Postby Ken711 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:24 pm

JahJa wrote:I can confirm no major damage. A few trees down but nothing major at all. http://Www.bernews.com has some pics and is kept up to date pretty well.

Thanks for all the well wishes and prayers; we can though ok!


Great news for Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#536 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:43 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
abajan wrote:
Cyclenall wrote: That's how it always is now, the long-anticipated and hyped up events end up under-performing and vice-versa. I remember on TV Nicole being mentioned with a "it is far from Bermuda" line but that was 5 or so days ago.

How this TC has panned out is very impressive, back when it was still a wave I thought it probably wouldn't amount to much. Best looking TC of the season too despite not being a CAT5 hurricane. What is the most shocking of all is that there is no other instance of 2 CAT4's occurring in October in the Atlantic since recording keeping began...that really amazes me :eek: . I thought for sure it happened not long ago :lol: . Same for Bermuda not being hit by any category 4 hurricanes but Nicole won't be the first (NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such.)

Nicole won't be a Cat 4 when it hits Bermuda. Its maximum sustained winds are already down to 125 mph and I think they should be down to 120 mph by the time the eyewall gets there.

Exactly, that's why I wrote Nicole won't be the first. I didn't even think it was going to make landfall based on its movement.

Yes, of course. I had a feeling I'd misunderstood what you stated.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#537 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:03 pm

As of the 8 PM advisory, all warnings for Bermuda have been lifted. All in all, they fared quite well. Little more than a minor inconvenience, from what I can tell.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#538 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:02 pm

abajan wrote:As of the 8 PM advisory, all warnings for Bermuda have been lifted. All in all, they fared quite well. Little more than a minor inconvenience, from what I can tell.

Typical of over hyped pre hit media stories.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#539 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:05 pm

abajan wrote:As of the 8 PM advisory, all warnings for Bermuda have been lifted. All in all, they fared quite well. Little more than a minor inconvenience, from what I can tell.


Too soon to say for sure. The storm passed by less than 18 hours ago.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#540 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:10 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
abajan wrote:As of the 8 PM advisory, all warnings for Bermuda have been lifted. All in all, they fared quite well. Little more than a minor inconvenience, from what I can tell.


Too soon to say for sure. The storm passed by less than 18 hours ago.


twitter quote Pro-met.

Life-threatening situation, including major storm surge inundation, destructive wind & flooding, evolving this point forward in Bermuda.
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