ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#541 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:13 pm

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
abajan wrote:As of the 8 PM advisory, all warnings for Bermuda have been lifted. All in all, they fared quite well. Little more than a minor inconvenience, from what I can tell.


Too soon to say for sure. The storm passed by less than 18 hours ago.


twitter quote Pro-met.

Life-threatening situation, including major storm surge inundation, destructive wind & flooding, evolving this point forward in Bermuda.


I'm sure you can find whatever you're looking for on twitter, but what is the point? Following the forecasters I trust I didn't see any hype.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#542 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:29 pm

The point is iwas looking for infomation about the storm. i would think most you follow are on the same Ops managers or PHD.
Unless you are a pro-met then you would know everything? and not need to look. @anthonywx
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#543 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:43 pm

Something just occurred to me, which is kind of strange, the three hurricanes in Bermuda since 2014 all occurred in a six day period on the calendar--Oct 12 (Fay) 13 (Nicole) 17 (Gonzalo).
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#544 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:58 pm

abajan wrote:As of the 8 PM advisory, all warnings for Bermuda have been lifted. All in all, they fared quite well. Little more than a minor inconvenience, from what I can tell.


News reports are along the lines of abayan's quote.
http://bernews.com/2016/10/live-updates ... ne-nicole/

Very tame in compassion to what those poor buggers in Haiti received.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#545 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:25 pm

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#546 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:50 pm

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016

The satellite presentation of Nicole has degraded substantially this
evening, with the area of cold convective tops shrinking in size and
become less symmetric. The low-level center is difficult to locate
in geostationary imagery, but recent microwave data suggest it is
located to the southwest of the coldest convective tops. This
structure is consistent with the 40-45 kt of southwesterly shear
analyzed over Nicole by the SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS. The initial
intensity has been lowered to 85 kt, which is between the latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Nicole should continue to weaken in the next 12 hours due to the
persistent strong shear and cooling SSTs. However, from 24-48
hours, forcing associated with a shortwave trough should cause
Nicole to remain a powerful cyclone, and the intensity is maintained
at 75 kt through that time. After the shortwave moves past Nicole,
slow decay is expected late in the period. The new NHC intensity
forecast is lower than the previous one in the first 12-24 hours,
following the trend of the latest hurricane intensity guidance.
After that time, the intensity forecast is based on global model
guidance. Note that the structure of Nicole is quite uncertain
during the forecast period, since the cyclone does not appear to
complete extratropical transition, with the global models showing
the cyclone acquiring a warm seclusion structure.

A 2201Z WindSat pass suggested that the center of Nicole was located
a little south of previous estimates. The initial motion is
estimated to be 060/18, as Nicole is now embedded in the mid-
latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a longwave trough moving off
the U.S. east coast. This pattern should steer Nicole generally
east-northeastward for the next 48 hours, although the forward speed
will decrease by 36 hours as Nicole interacts with the
aforementioned shortwave. The trough moves east of Nicole by 72
hours, leaving the cyclone in a region of weaker steering flow until
a high-latitude trough approaches from the northwest in 4-5 days,
and cause Nicole to accelerate northeastward by the end of the
forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is a little south of
the previous one due to the initial position and is close to a blend
of the GFS and ECMWF models through the period.

The post-tropical portion of Nicole's track, intensity, and wind
radii forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center.

Note that swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of
the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of
days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period
swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the
North Atlantic basin.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 34.4N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 35.6N 58.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 36.9N 54.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 38.1N 51.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 38.6N 49.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 17/0000Z 39.0N 47.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 18/0000Z 41.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 19/0000Z 47.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#547 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Oct 14, 2016 2:33 am

I can't remember the last time I saw a 115kt hurricane get blown apart as quickly as Nicole has been northeast of Bermuda. Wouldn't surprise me if it went post-tropical rather quickly.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#548 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2016 5:03 am

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST FRI OCT 14 2016

The cloud pattern has degraded significantly during the past few
hours. The low-level center is difficult to locate, but it appears
to be separated and well to the southwest of an area of weakening
convection due to southwesterly shear. This is supported by an
ASCAT pass a few hours ago, which showed the vigorous surface
circulation to the southwest of the limited thunderstorm activity.
Based on Dvorak T-numbers which are weakening as fast as the rules
allow, and data from ASCAT, the initial intensity is lowered to 75
kt.

Although Nicole should continue to weaken in the next 12 hours due
to the strong shear and low SSTs, global models indicate that the
system should remain a powerful cyclone for a few days. The new NHC
intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, following the
trend of the latest hurricane intensity guidance. It is expected
that Nicole becomes a post-tropical cyclone is about 24 hours or so,
but it is uncertain when Nicole will complete the extratropical
transition.

The best estimate of the initial motion is be 065/18. Nicole is
well embedded within the mid-latitude flow, and this pattern should
steer Nicole generally east-northeastward for the next day or
so. Some decrease in forward speed is anticipated beyond 36 hours
while Nicole interacts with passing shortwaves. The NHC forecast is
in the middle of the tight guidance envelope primarily during the
next 2 to 3 days.

The post-tropical portion of Nicole's track, intensity, and wind
radii forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center.

Note that swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of
the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of
days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period
swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the
North Atlantic basin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 35.4N 59.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 36.5N 56.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 37.7N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 15/1800Z 38.5N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 16/0600Z 39.0N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 17/0600Z 39.0N 46.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 18/0600Z 42.5N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 19/0600Z 48.0N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#549 Postby Ken711 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 6:17 am

NDG wrote:From earlier this morning.



https://twitter.com/53d_hha/status/786683456453353472


Cool picture.
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Re: NICOLE: Local observations , Web Cams , Local statements: Bermuda

#550 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2016 6:56 am

Any news from the island about damage or casualties?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#551 Postby Ken711 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 9:20 am

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#552 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2016 9:44 am

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 14 2016

Nicole continues to become less organized in satellite imagery,
with the main convective area now well removed from the center over
the northern semicircle and only shallow convection remaining near
the center. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are 77 and 55 kt respectively, and the latest CIMSS SATCON
estimate is 68 kt. Based on these data and the decay of the cloud
pattern, the initial intensity is reduced to 70 kt.

The initial motion is 060/16. Nicole is embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies to the southeast of a deep-layer trough
moving eastward through southeastern Canada. The dynamical models
forecast the trough to bypass Nicole to the north after 24 hours or
so, which will weaken the steering flow and reduce Nicole's forward
speed during the 24-72 hour period. Subsequently, a new mid-
latitude trough moving through southeastern Canada should steer
Nicole northeastward at a faster forward speed. The guidance is
tightly clustered through 48-72 hours, and this part of the forecast
track is an update of the previous track. Beyond that time, the
guidance has shifted northward, and the new forecast track is also
nudged northward.

The dynamical models are in good agreement that Nicole should
interact with the mid-latitude trough starting in the next 12-24
hours, with the models forecasting a central pressure below 950 mb
in about 36 hours. As this occurs, the cyclone is expected to
develop into a post-tropical cyclone with the warm core secluded
inside an encircling cooler air mass. The guidance suggests that
Nicole will not fully develop frontal features during the forecast
period, so the new intensity forecast calls for the system to
remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone through 120 hours. The
post-tropical portion of Nicole's intensity and wind radii forecasts
have been modified based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center.

Note that swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of
the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of
days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period
swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the
North Atlantic basin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 35.8N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.9N 55.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 38.1N 51.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 16/0000Z 38.5N 49.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 16/1200Z 38.7N 48.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 17/1200Z 40.0N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 18/1200Z 44.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 19/1200Z 51.0N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#553 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 14, 2016 5:32 pm

Models continuing to show Nicole regaining tropical characteristics in about 24-36 hours.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#554 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Oct 14, 2016 5:52 pm

If it can stay tropical through tonight, it will have been alive as long as Matthew (11 days)
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#555 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2016 9:48 pm

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 14 2016

Deep convection redeveloped northeast of Nicole's center just after
1800 UTC and has persisted since that time despite nearly 50 kt of
southwesterly shear. The Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB
has decreased to 3.5, and Nicole's initial intensity is therefore
lowered conservatively to 60 kt.

The future classification of Nicole continues to be a quandary,
only because the system will be straddling the nebulous boundary of
what constitutes a tropical and non-tropical cyclone. Nicole
continues to have a warm core and has not become attached to a
frontal boundary, and phase-space diagrams based off the global
models indicate that the cyclone will only become more symmetric
and develop a deeper warm core from this point forward. Nicole
will likely become a warm seclusion, with its warm core isolated
from surrounding colder air, and that structure could allow the
cyclone to maintain tropical characteristics even at such a high
latitude. Simulated infrared satellite imagery from the GFS and
ECMWF models suggests that the cyclone may even develop an eye-like
feature in a day or two. Given these model trends, it has become
more likely that Nicole will retain tropical or subtropical
characteristics, and the NHC forecast now does not show the system
becoming post-tropical until day 4. This forecast remains highly
uncertain, however, and does not eliminate the possibility of Nicole
becoming post-tropical during the next day or so. Regardless of its
classification, Nicole is expected to restrengthen during the next
12-24 hours, mostly due to forcing from an approaching mid-latitude
trough. If more symmetric deep convection does develop, then the
cyclone should be able to maintain hurricane intensity at least
through day 3. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the GFS
and ECMWF models.

The initial motion has increased to 065/19 kt. However, Nicole is
expected to slow down considerably between 24-48 hours when it
interacts with the approaching shortwave trough and becomes cut off
from the mid-latitude westerlies. Another mid-latitude trough that
will move across Atlantic Canada on day 3 should cause Nicole to
accelerate north-northeastward on days 4 and 5. The track guidance
is in very good agreement through the forecast period, and no
significant changes were required from the previous NHC track
forecast.

The radii on the western side of Nicole's circulation have been
increased based on a recent ASCAT-B pass. Guidance from the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center was used for the forecast wind radii.

Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early
next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 37.4N 53.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 38.2N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 38.6N 48.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 38.7N 47.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 39.0N 46.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 42.1N 43.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 50.5N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0000Z 58.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#556 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 14, 2016 9:48 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:If it can stay tropical through tonight, it will have been alive as long as Matthew (11 days)


Latest forecast finally followed global models in keeping it tropical for at least another 72-96 hours.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#557 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2016 5:18 am

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016

The cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory.
Patches of deep convection keep reforming near and to the north of
the center. The circulation appears to be elongated, but it is still
well defined. Initial intensity is kept at 60 kt.

As mentioned by my predecessor, the future structure of Nicole is
difficult to forecast. Given the strong shear and cold SSTs, one
should tend to foreast weakening or extratropical transition.
However, both the GFS and the ECMWF simulated infrared imagery
continue to forecast the development of an eye feature in a day or
so. Given these model solutions, the NHC forecast keeps Nicole with
tropical characteristics during the next 3 days and calls for the
cyclone to become post-tropical thereafter.

After an increased in forward speed last evening, Nicole has slowed
down a little, and is now moving toward the east-northeast at about
15 kt. The cyclone is already embedded within a mid-latitude trough
and will continue to move with the trough on the same general track
with a decrease in forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days. After
that time, another trough will approach Nicole and will probably
kick the cyclone toward the north-northeast. The NHC forecast is in
the middle of the guidance envelope and is not different from the
previous one.

Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the
forecast wind radii.

Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early
next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 38.1N 51.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 38.7N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 38.8N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 39.0N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 39.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 44.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 54.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0600Z 62.5N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#558 Postby abajan » Sat Oct 15, 2016 5:31 am

Excerpt from 5 AM Advisory:
...RESILIENT NICOLE FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...

It's also expected to remain tropical while restrengthening:

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 ...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 38.1N 51.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 38.7N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 38.8N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 39.0N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 39.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 44.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

96H 19/0600Z 54.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0600Z 62.5N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Avila

Should rack up some good ACE units.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#559 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 15, 2016 6:38 am

looks like there is an occluded front, as well as a cold front attached to it. This is extratropical
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#560 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:46 am

It certainly has that extratropical appearance on a glance.

Image
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