ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#561 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:26 am

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016

Nicole has intensified since the last advisory, likely due to
baroclinic influences from a nearby upper-level trough.
Just-received ASCAT-B data shows 70-75 kt winds to the southwest of
the center, and a drifting buoy south of the center reported a
pressure 966.6 mb at 1000 UTC, suggesting a falling
central pressure. Based on these data, the intensity is increased
to 75 kt. It should be noted that the cloud pattern has some
characteristics of a subtropical cyclone due to the cyclone's
interaction with the upper-level trough.

The GFS and the ECMWF continue to forecast organized central
convection for the next 48 hours or so, indicating that Nicole is
likely to maintain tropical cyclone characteristics despite cooler
air entraining into the circulation. After that time, the cyclone
should move over sea surface temperatures of 16 deg C or less that
should cause the central convection to dissipate. Based on this, the
intensity forecast calls for Nicole to become post-tropical by 72
hours and then fully extratropical by 96 hours. The new intensity
forecast is adjusted upward for the first 12 hours based on the
current intensity, and after that it is an update of the previous
forecast. Overall, the forecast lies near the upper end of the
intensity guidance.

Nicole appears to be slowing its forward motion, and the motion
estimate is now 075/11. A slow easterly motion is expected during
the next 36 hours or so while the cyclone is an area of weaker flow
in the mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, a large
mid-latitude trough moving into eastern Canada should steer the
cyclone north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed. The
new forecast track is again similar to the previous track and lies
near the various consensus models.

Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the
forecast wind radii.

Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early
next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 39.0N 50.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 39.3N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 39.4N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 39.8N 45.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 41.1N 44.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 47.5N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 19/1200Z 56.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1200Z 64.5N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#562 Postby Kazmit » Sat Oct 15, 2016 11:03 am

Wow, she bounced back fast...
...SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOWS THAT NICOLE HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH...
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#563 Postby abajan » Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:46 pm

Kazmit_ wrote:Wow, she bounced back fast...
...SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOWS THAT NICOLE HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH...

They probably should've added the line "Residents in Greenland and Iceland should monitor the progress of Nicole." :lol:
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#564 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:56 pm

Maybe someone could help me out, but I don't see many indications that Nicole is tropical anymore.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#565 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:51 pm

Still maintaining convection near the center? Remember this isn't the tropics so even strong convection will be rather shallow.

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=44&lon=-50&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#566 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2016 3:47 pm

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016

Nicole is currently showing a hybrid structure. On the larger
scale, the system has the appearance of an extratropical low, with
cold air advection occurring over the southern semicircle and a
developing frontal cloud band east through south of the center.
However, the system has secluded an area of warm air near the
center where a tropical cyclone wind and temperature structure
exists. The earlier scatterometer overpass showed the radius of
maximum winds to be about 75 n mi, and the warm core is strong
enough to produce hurricane-strength AMSU intensity estimates.
Based on little change in the appearance of the cloud pattern since
the last advisory, the intensity is held at 75 kt.

The GFS and the ECMWF continue to forecast organized central
convection for the next 36-48 hours, indicating that Nicole is
likely to maintain tropical cyclone characteristics. After that
time, the cyclone should move over sea surface temperatures of 16
deg C or less that should cause the central convection to dissipate.
Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Nicole to become
post-tropical by 72 hours and then fully extratropical by 96 hours.
The latest dynamical model guidance forecasts the cyclone to be
absorbed by another extratropical low by 120 hours, and that is now
reflected in the intensity forecast. The new forecast is otherwise
an update of the previous forecast.

The initial motion is now 075/10. A slow easterly motion is
expected during the next 36 hours or so while the cyclone is in an
area of weaker flow in the mid-latitude westerlies. After that
time, a large mid-latitude trough moving into eastern Canada should
steer Nicole north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed.
The new forecast track is again similar to the previous track and
lies near the various consensus models.

Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the
forecast wind radii.

Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early
next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 39.4N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 39.5N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 39.8N 46.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 40.6N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 42.5N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 50.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 19/1800Z 60.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#567 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sat Oct 15, 2016 3:54 pm

Nichole has really gotten YUGE... per the last advisory: "Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415
miles (665 km)"
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#568 Postby Kazmit » Sat Oct 15, 2016 4:19 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:Nichole has really gotten YUGE... per the last advisory: "Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415
miles (665 km)"

Certainly. If this keeps on growing, I won't be too surprised to see Nicole set some type of size record.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#569 Postby ThetaE » Sat Oct 15, 2016 4:38 pm

Kazmit_ wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:Nichole has really gotten YUGE... per the last advisory: "Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415
miles (665 km)"

Certainly. If this keeps on growing, I won't be too surprised to see Nicole set some type of size record.


I dunno about just the Atlantic Basin, but on a global scale it's still got quite a bit to go.

From Typhoon Tip's Wiki:
At its peak strength, it was also the largest tropical cyclone on record with a wind diameter of 2,220 km (1,380 mi).


EDIT: Actually, I just realized the Wiki I quoted listed Tip's wind diameter, and the snipit from the advisory was Nicole's wind RADIUS. Even still, Nicole has quite a ways to go.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#570 Postby Lifeless » Sat Oct 15, 2016 4:45 pm

Certainly a decent size

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#571 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:36 pm

This is almost Sandy-sized, fortunately nowhere near land.

I'm guessing the pressure is much lower too, around 945 or so.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#572 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2016 9:41 pm

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016

Nicole appears to be trying to develop some inner-core convection
with cloud tops cooling near the center during the past several
hours. Although there is cold advection occurring on the back side
of the cyclone, recent AMSU data confirm that Nicole has a
well-defined warm core. CIMSS intensity estimates from the AMSU
data indicated that Nicole was still producing maximum winds
between 68-77 kt, and the latest classification from TAFB increased
from six hours ago. Based on these data, the initial intensity
remains 75 kt.

Global model fields show that Nicole is likely to maintain its warm
core for another 48 hours. Even though sea surface temperatures
will be decreasing from 24C to 20C during that time, upper-level
temperatures will also be cooling, which should keep the
environment unstable enough for Nicole to generate convection
within its core. Therefore, only slow weakening is anticipated
during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast most
closely follows the GFS and ECMWF forecast intensities. Nicole is
expected to lose its warm core and become extratropical by 72
hours, and it should then be absorbed by another weather system by
120 hours between Iceland and Greenland.

Nicole's center has turned eastward and slowed down with an initial
motion of 080/9 kt. Nicole is cut off from the faster mid-latitude
flow to its north, and it is therefore expected to move only slowly
eastward or northeastward during the next 36 hours. After that
time, a shortwave trough moving across eastern Canada should cause
Nicole to accelerate toward the north-northeast and north between
48-96 hours. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the various
consensus models and not too different from the previous forecast.

Nicole's initial tropical-storm-force wind radii have been expanded
based on a recent ASCAT-B pass. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center was used for the forecast wind radii.

Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early
next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 39.4N 48.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 39.4N 47.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 39.9N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 41.0N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 43.8N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 53.7N 36.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0000Z 63.0N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#573 Postby NotoSans » Sun Oct 16, 2016 1:32 am

TXNT25 KNES 160604
TCSNTL

A. 15L (NICOLE)

B. 16/0545Z

C. 39.1N

D. 48.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5/INITIAL RECLASSIFICATION

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=3.5 BASED ON 1.0 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=3.5 MET IS
UNDEFINED. FT IS BASED ON DT. 15/2040Z AND 15/2047Z AMSU CROSSSECTIONS
HAVE CONFIRMED NICOLE HAS TRANSITIONED BACK TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#574 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 16, 2016 5:55 am

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2016

The satellite presentation has changed very little during the past
several hours. The pattern consists of a convective band wrapping
around the center or an eye-like feature. The initial intensity is
kept at 75 kt. There is nothing new to report except that Nicole is
a resilient cyclone, and will probably continue as a hurricane for
the next 24 to 36 hours despite the shear and the cold waters. Both
the GFS and the ECMWF models are showing signs that by 48 hours,
Nicole will no longer have tropical characteristic, and by 72 hours,
it will be absorbed by a much large extratropical cyclone. The NHC
forecast follows the solutions of these two models.

Nicole is meandering eastward or 090 degrees at 5 kt. Since the
hurricane is cut off from the faster mid-latitude flow to its north,
little motion is anticipated during the next 24 hours. After that
time, an approaching trough should cause Nicole to accelerate and
turn more to the northeast and north-northeast until it become
absorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone in about 3 days or
sooner.

Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the
forecast wind radii.

Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early
next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 39.2N 47.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 39.3N 46.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 40.2N 45.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 42.5N 43.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 46.5N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0600Z 56.6N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#575 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 16, 2016 9:56 am

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2016

Nicole appears to be maintaining its strength this morning. The
satellite presentation of the hurricane is slightly better organized
than several hours ago. A large ragged eye of the cyclone is still
evident in visible satellite images, surrounded by patches of cold
cloud tops. The initial wind speed is held at 75 kt, which is a
little higher than the latest Dvorak estimates. Although Nicole is
over 24 deg C SSTs and is headed for even colder waters during the
next day or two, there should be enough instability for the
continuation of some deep convection near the center of the cyclone.
Therefore, only slow weakening is expected before Nicole completes
the transition to an extratropical cyclone in about two days when it
is absorbed by an upper-level trough.

Nicole is moving slowly east-southeastward as the hurricane is now
largely cut off from the stronger mid-latitude flow. A slow
northeastward motion is expected later today and tonight, followed
by an acceleration to the north-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The expected turn and increase in forward speed are due to the
approach of the aforementioned large upper-level trough that is
currently located over eastern Canada. The track models are in
relatively good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is a little
slower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the
latest consensus aids.

The initial wind radii were adjusted based on a 1230 UTC ASCAT-B
pass. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) was used
for the forecast wind radii.

The primary hazard associated with Nicole will be high seas. Recent
wave-height altimeter data indicate that a large area of 20-ft seas
exist near the hurricane. In addition, swells from Nicole are
spreading far from the system, and High Seas Forecasts from OPC
and TAFB suggest that long-period swells will continue to radiate
outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next
few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 39.1N 46.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 39.5N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 41.0N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 43.8N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 48.5N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1200Z 58.6N 35.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#576 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Oct 16, 2016 12:07 pm

Nicole is kinda like Alberto 2000 and Bertha 2008 at this point. Doesn't want to die.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#577 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 16, 2016 3:46 pm

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016

Nicole's 70 nmi wide ragged eye remains distinct, surrounded by a
nearly closed ring of convection consisting of cloud tops of -45C to
-55C. However, the overall cloud pattern is beginning to look more
like an extratropical low pressure system than that of a tropical
cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered to 70 kt, which is
closer to the latest subjective and objective Dvorak intensity
estimate of T4.0/65 kt from both TAFB and NHC.

Nicole appears to have finally made the much anticipated turn to the
northeast, and is now moving 045/08 kt. Nicole currently is trapped
between two high-amplitude ridges -- one located offshore of eastern
Canada and the other to the west of Europe. The latest 12Z model
guidance remains in excellent agreement on this blocking ridge
pattern breaking down over the next few days as a strong shortwave
trough currently located over northeastern Canada moves quickly
eastward. The increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow ahead of the
trough should begin to accelerate Nicole northeastward tonight and
Monday, and then turn the cyclone north-northeastward over the far
North Atlantic on Tuesday. The track models are in very good
agreement on this developing track scenario, so the new NHC forecast
track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory
track, and lies close to a blend of the various consensus models and
input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) at 48-72h.

Although Nicole is currently located over marginal sea surface
temperatures of about 24 deg C, it is beneath a region of unusually
cold upper-tropospheric temperatures, creating an unstable condition
barely sufficient to support convection in the inner-core region of
the cyclone. However, the latest SHIPS intensity guidance indicates
that SSTs will be cooling to 22C and less by 24 h, after which the
atmosphere is forecast to become too stable to produce convection.
As a result, Nicole is expected to become an extratropical low
by 36 hours. However, the intensity forecast shows only slight
weakening during the next 48 h due to the system receiving a shot of
baroclinic energy from the aforementioned shortwave trough. By 96 h,
if not sooner, Nicole is expected to be absorbed by a larger
extratropical low near the east coast of Greenland. Guidance from
the NOAA OPC was used for the forecast wind radii at 48 h and 72 h.

The primary hazard associated with Nicole will be high seas. Recent
wave-height altimeter data indicate that a large area of 20-ft seas
exist near the hurricane. In addition, swells from Nicole are
spreading far from the system, and High Seas Forecasts from OPC
and TAFB indicate that long-period swells will continue to radiate
outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next
few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 39.7N 45.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 40.5N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 42.6N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 46.3N 39.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1800Z 51.3N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1800Z 59.6N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#578 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 16, 2016 7:16 pm

Some nice deep convection has wrapped all the way around Nicole's eye today.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#579 Postby ThetaE » Sun Oct 16, 2016 8:48 pm

Hammy wrote:Some nice deep convection has wrapped all the way around Nicole's eye today.


Yup! With notable convection surrounding the eye, it actually looks somewhat tropical again on satellite.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#580 Postby tatertawt24 » Sun Oct 16, 2016 9:02 pm

Reminds me a little bit of the way Epsilon looked:

Image
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