WPAC: SONGDA - Extratropical

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WPAC: SONGDA - Extratropical

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:33 am

New invest has bee tagged just east of the International Dateline. It should cross into the Western Pacific before too long.

As of 06:00 UTC Oct 03, 2016:

Location: 14.3°N 177.8°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 90 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM


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Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:42 am, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 94C

#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:47 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
153 AM HST MON OCT 3 2016

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low
pressure located around 1400 miles west-southwest of Honolulu,
Hawaii remain disorganized. Environmental conditions, however, are
expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation
over the next couple of days as it drifts toward the northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through early
Wednesday morning.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 94C

#3 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:09 pm

EURO bottoms this out at 962 mb as it recurves well northeast of the Marianas.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 94C

#4 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:38 pm

Looks to be gaining some organization despite being raked with shear from a strong upper low. Looks like 94C may end up tracking in Kilo land up above 20*N.

Image
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 94C

#5 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:49 pm

Oh hey, there's actually already a vigorous low level circulation with 94C (albeit exposed). Visible imagery shows it shooting across the International Date Line into the Western Pacific.

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Re: CPAC: INVEST 94C

#6 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:01 pm

This should get the name Songda.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94C

#7 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:34 pm

SAB's fixes of 94C are now solidly in the Western Pacific.

TXPQ25 KNES 040313
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94C)

B. 04/0230Z

C. 16.6N

D. 178.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN WITH WELL DEFINED LL CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER
LT 75 NMI FROM A SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94C

#8 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:52 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.5N 179.9E, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 032120Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
VERY WEAK WINDS TO THE SOUTH. A 031918Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN
ELONGATED SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE SUBSIDENT REGION OF A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHWEST, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWEST, HOWEVER,
THE WINDOW FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS VERY SHORT DUE TO STRONG
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 94C

#9 Postby kala » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:35 am

euro6208 wrote:This should get the name Songda.


Aere?

I suspect it will be named before 99W.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94C

#10 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:16 am

JMA thinks so too.

Image

TD
Issued at 10:05 UTC, 4 October 2016

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 4 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N16°30' (16.5°)
E177°10' (177.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 4 October>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N17°00' (17.0°)
E175°30' (175.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°35' (17.6°)
E173°40' (173.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94C

#11 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:45 pm

TXPQ25 KNES 041536
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94C)

B. 04/1430Z

C. 16.8N

D. 176.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/S1.0/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH SMALL COLD OVERCAST
GREATER THAN 75 NM FROM LLCC. MET=1.0. PT=1.0 FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94C

#12 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:04 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N
179.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 175.9E, APPROXIMATELY 476 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS A HYBRID SYSTEM LOCATED
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE
CENTRALIZED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY IMPROVING LLCC WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A 041905Z 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN THE SUBSIDENT REGION OF A TUTT CELL, WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL THAT LEADS INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST, AND MODERATE
TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS
MIXED WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWEST, HOWEVER, THE WINDOW
FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS VERY SHORT DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94C

#13 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:03 am

Bottoms to 964mb as it recurves...

Image
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 94C

#14 Postby kala » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:04 pm

kala wrote:
euro6208 wrote:This should get the name Songda.


Aere?

I suspect it will be named before 99W.


Turns out I was wrong. It's been struggling.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94C

#15 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:57 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 179.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 168.4E, APPROXIMATELY
125 NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH POCKETS OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A 060312Z SSMI
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SPOTTY CONVECTION WITH SOME BANDING
FORMING AROUND THE MOSTLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITS IN
FAVORABLE (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A TROPICAL UPPER LEVER TROUGH, CAUSING
CONVERGENCE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM AND LIMITING GROWTH. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATED LIMITED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94C

#16 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:10 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.8N 168.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 163.0E, APPROXIMATELY
220 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH POCKETS OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. A 070120Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SPOTTY CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE MOSTLY EXPOSED LLCC, WHICH HAS SOME BANDING FORMING AS WELL. THE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITS IN LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS STILL
LOCATED DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A TROPICAL UPPER LEVER TROUGH (TUTT),
CAUSING CONVERGENCE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM AND LIMITING CONVECTION
AND GROWTH OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED LIMITED
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94C

#17 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:49 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6N 159.8E TO 21.9N 151.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
072130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N
159.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.0N 158.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 159.0E, APPROXIMATELY
1052NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. A 072009Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 071047 ASCAT PASS INDICATES 25-30 KT WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MSI IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
IS BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082200Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94C

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2016 9:31 am

JMA upgrades to Tropical Storm SONGDA.

TS 1620 (Songda)
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 8 October 2016

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 8 October>
Scale
-
Intensity
-
Center position
N19°50' (19.8°)

E154°25' (154.4°)
Direction and speed of movement
W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure
1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area
ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 9 October>
Intensity
-
Center position of probability circle
N22°55' (22.9°)

E149°05' (149.1°)
Direction and speed of movement
NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure
990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle
110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 10 October>
Intensity
Strong
Center position of probability circle
N25°05' (25.1°)

E146°35' (146.6°)
Direction and speed of movement
NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure
975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle
180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area
ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 October>
Intensity
Strong
Center position of probability circle
N27°20' (27.3°)

E146°50' (146.8°)
Direction and speed of movement
N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure
965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle
310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area
ALL 430 km (230 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 October>
Center position of probability circle
N30°25' (30.4°)

E151°00' (151.0°)
Direction and speed of movement
NE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Radius of probability circle
480 km (260 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 October>
Center position of probability circle
N35°25' (35.4°)

E162°30' (162.5°)
Direction and speed of movement
ENE 50 km/h (27 kt)
Radius of probability circle
600 km (325 NM)
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 08, 2016 3:54 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (SONGDA)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE LLCC. A 081653Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVING OUTFLOW
WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT TO THE
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AS THE BROAD
UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS WEAKENED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 THEN
RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. TS SONGDA WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80
KNOTS BY TAU 48.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS SONGDA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. TS 23W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT
GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 08, 2016 9:58 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (SONGDA)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A
082039Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVING OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AS THE BROAD UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
WEAKENED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. TS 23W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 THEN
RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. TS SONGDA WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS BY TAU 48.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS SONGDA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. TS 23W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT
GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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