WPAC: SONGDA - Extratropical

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 09, 2016 4:10 am

WDPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (SONGDA)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BANDING FEATURES BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION. A 0534Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAK BANDING CONFINED
TO THE NORTH AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES WITH A MICROWAVE EYE STARTING
TO FORM WITHIN A SMALL BUT DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE AND WITHIN THE UPPER ENVELOPE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
VERY LOW AND A MODEST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED.
SSTS ARE VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TS SONGDA IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS SONGDA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE EDGE OF
THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU 24.
BEYOND TAU 24 THE TRACK WILL SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY AS IT ROUNDS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND FURTHER INTENSIFY TO 90 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS OUTFLOW
BECOMES ENHANCED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHORTLY
THEREAFTER TS SONGDA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND WESTERLY JET. WEAKENING
WILL OCCUR AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM GAINS
BAROCLINICITY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TS
SONGDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#22 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 09, 2016 8:37 pm

JMA has upgraded to a typhoon.

TY 1620 (Songda)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 10 October 2016

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 10 October>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°40' (24.7°)
E146°25' (146.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 10 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°50' (25.8°)
E145°40' (145.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 11 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°00' (27.0°)
E146°00' (146.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 12 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°35' (30.6°)
E150°05' (150.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 13 October>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N37°20' (37.3°)
E162°50' (162.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (31 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 540 km (290 NM)


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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#23 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 09, 2016 11:08 pm

Songda is about to look awesome.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#24 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 09, 2016 11:58 pm

Image
Would like to see the eye make an awesome clearance before sun down
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#25 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 4:46 am

Image

Up to 90 knots and peaks it at 100 knots..

WDPN32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM EAST OF IWO
TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A NEWLY FORMED
12 NM RAGGED EYE GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. A
100316Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION IN THE
BANDING FEATURES, BUT A SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MEASURING ONLY ABOUT 50 NM IN DIAMETER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING LIMITED ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION,
WITH A VERY STRONG POLEWARD TAP INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE NEAR
28 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TY SONGDA IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, AND SLOWING
SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY SONGDA WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE AXIS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST GIVING A SHORT WINDOW FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, AND REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS.
BEYOND TAU 24 TY SONGDA WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND WESTERLY JET AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE. BY TAU 36 TO 48 TY SONGDA WILL BEGIN TO EXHIBIT
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TY SONGDA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#26 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 4:47 am

TPPN12 PGTW 100925

A. TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA)

B. 10/0900Z

C. 25.82N

D. 145.90E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURR BY LG (+0.5
ADJ FOR W) YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET YIELDS A
4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#27 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 4:50 am

Impressive.

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#28 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 4:52 am

I would bump it up to 115 knots.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 OCT 2016 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 25:50:59 N Lon : 145:50:40 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 945.8mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +14.3C Cloud Region Temp : -67.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 75km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.6 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#29 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 6:47 am

Another one of those classic Wpac typhoons. I won't be surprised if this is a Category 5 now. Don't listen to dvorak. Mattrew broke all dvorak and led more than a mile.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#30 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 10, 2016 7:26 am

What the frick? I certainly wasn't expecting this. Instantaneous raw DT for warm medium grey eye (over 18*C per ADT) embedded in a white CDO is 7.0. This is one you probably have to constrain, but I wouldn't constrain more than a verbatim 6.0.

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#31 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 7:31 am

1900hurricane wrote:What the frick? I certainly wasn't expecting this. Instantaneous raw DT for warm medium grey eye (over 18*C per ADT) embedded in a white CDO is 7.0. This is one you probably have to constrain, but I wouldn't constrain more than a verbatim 6.0.

Image


Raw DT warm medium grey? ADT? constrain? White CDO? lol... I never heard those in Mattrew's discussion. This is a Cat 5 no doubt. :roll:

Most active and powerful missing out on recon since 87....
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#32 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 10, 2016 7:39 am

JTWC's DT came in at 6.0, but it looks like they missed the warm medium grey in the eye and downplayed the white CDO (sigh). At least they used the DT as the basis of their FT. JMA's DT came in even lower at 5.5 (probably verbatim use of constraints).

TPPN12 PGTW 101220

A. TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA)

B. 10/1200Z

C. 26.35N

D. 145.88E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURR BY BLK (+0.5
ADJ FOR W) YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. PT AGREES WHILE MET YIELDS A
5.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0740Z 25.60N 145.88E WIND
10/0841Z 25.83N 145.83E SSMS


MARTINEZ


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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#33 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 10, 2016 8:09 am

Songda may have peaked. The eye has cooled to off-white, and the white in the CDO is beginning to become more irregular.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#34 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 10, 2016 8:12 am

Are you kidding JTWC??? Your own analysis yielded a 6.0! Why are you only going 100 kt?!

23W SONGDA 161010 1200 26.4N 145.9E WPAC 100 948
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#35 Postby NotoSans » Mon Oct 10, 2016 8:51 am

23W SONGDA 161010 1200 26.4N 145.9E WPAC 105 944

JTWC has revised their intensity upward to 105 knots, probably based on a blend of subjective Dvorak values ranging from T5.5 from JMA and T6.0 from their own analysis. I would say it's still too low though, and personally I would go with the high end of subjective Dvorak estimates, which yields 120 knots.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#36 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 10, 2016 9:01 am

120 kt is what I would have done at 12Z as well. In the meantime though, it looks like Songda may actually be pulling a quick eyewall replacement.

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#37 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 10, 2016 2:10 pm

Looks like I was spot on with regards to eyewall replacement, but ATMS isn't showing a quick one oncoming like I originally thought.

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#38 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 6:50 pm

100 knots.

WDPN32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DISTINCT WEAKENING AND ELONGATION TO THE CORE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE SURROUNDING A VERY SMALL 5-NM EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE TYPHOON HAS STARTED TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE INCREASED VWS IS NOW OFFSETTING THE STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT WEAKENING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION IN
THE STORM STRUCTURE. TY SONGDA IS NEARING THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE
DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY SONGDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE STEERING STR AXIS. AFTERWARDS THE TYPHOON
WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT EMBEDS WITHIN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE DUE TO VWS ABOVE 30
KNOTS AND SSTS DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS NEAR TAU 36. TY 23W WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 24 AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT IN ALL MODEL TRACKERS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#39 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 10:33 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL PINHOLE EYE
STILL EVIDENT BUT APPEARS TO BE CLOSING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 102111Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A DEEP CONVECTIVE INNER CORE STILL
EVIDENT; HOWEVER, THE REMAINING CONVECTION HAS ELONGATED TO THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY VWS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON UNCHANGED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). TY 23W IS TRACKING IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO MODERATE VWS OFFSETTING THE STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WHICH IS CAUSING THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO WEAKEN. TY
SONGDA HAS SLOWED FORWARD SPEED AND IS BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY SONGDA WILL CONTINUE TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT TRACKS
NORTH OF THE STEERING STR AXIS. AFTERWARDS THE TYPHOON WILL RAPIDLY
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT EMBEDS WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE DUE TO VWS ABOVE 30 KNOTS
AND SSTS DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS NEAR TAU 36. TY 23W WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 24 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DUE TO VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT IN ALL MODEL TRACKERS.//
NNNN
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Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#40 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:24 am

Back from the dead.

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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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