WPAC: SONGDA - Extratropical

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#41 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:21 am

Welp, looks like Songda has ignored my forecasts for weakening. :P

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#42 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:23 am

23W SONGDA 161011 1200 29.3N 147.6E WPAC 100 948

...That's too low IMO.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#43 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:36 am

Looks to me like Songda is taking advantage of the right entrance region of a potent jet streak, allowing it to maintain itself and even strengthen as it rides along the southern edge of the polar jet stream.

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#44 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:40 am

NotoSans wrote:23W SONGDA 161011 1200 29.3N 147.6E WPAC 100 948

...That's too low IMO.

I'd agree. JTWC's DT at 12Z was even a 6.5, although they ignored it. Seems pretty clear cut in this case to me. I might not have gone the full 125 kt right off the bat, but perhaps 120 kt would be an appropriate intensity again (matching what I thought at 12Z yesterday).
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#45 Postby terstorm1012 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:09 am

Kinda interested in seeing how interesting Songda's remnants make our weather across the CONUS.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#46 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:13 am

A reasonable fix from the SAB. I would go with at least 125 knots right now.

TXPQ25 KNES 111459
TCSWNP

A. 23W (SONGDA)

B. 11/1430Z

C. 29.7N

D. 148.1E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...B RESULTING
IN A DT OF 6.5 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#47 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:50 am

JTWC seems to dislike large eyed storms in the subtropics not named Phanfone.

TPPN10 PGTW 111518

A. TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA)

B. 11/1430Z

C. 29.74N

D. 148.08E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/1109Z 29.08N 147.37E ATMS
11/1202Z 29.20N 147.73E ATMS


BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#48 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 11, 2016 1:25 pm

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#49 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 11, 2016 1:49 pm

Looks like the agencies have finally decided to catch up with this storm. JMA goes with 100 knots in their latest advisory (corresponding to T6.5 on their Koba scale). JTWC agrees on T6.5 as well and goes with 130 knots.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#50 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:08 pm

Yep, intensity estimates look just about perfect for 18Z. It'll be interesting to see how far Songda maintains itself as it shoots off to the northeast. Sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures and the right entrance region of a jet streak in the polar jet have helped Songda achieve its current intensity, but sea surface temperatures will begin to drop off soon, an it's only a matter of time before the system becomes too entangled in the polar jet stream.

Image

Like Chaba, Songda is another one of those names that always seems to produce. All three uses of the name now have peaked at an intensity of 125 kt or higher.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#51 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:31 pm

23W SONGDA 161011 1800 30.3N 149.0E WPAC 130 926

SUPER TYPHOON WITH 130 KNOTS.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#52 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:32 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 23W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 556 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY SYMMETRIC CORE STRUCTURE WITH A RESURGENCE IN
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A SHARP 12NM EYE. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
NORTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS, IT HAS GONE THROUGH A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE CYCLONE MOVING IN-PHASE WITH THE 25 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, REDUCING ITS OVERALL IMPACTS TO THE STORM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO
THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY
IS BASED ON THE INTENSE CORE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE WHICH IS
READILY APPARENT IN AN 111538Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
AN INTENSE RED RING FULLY SURROUNDING THE EYE. ADDITIONALLY, ALL
AGENCIES ARE REPORTING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127
KNOTS). STY 23W IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT AND
FORECASTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED BASED ON THE RECENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.
B. STY SONGDA WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
EMBEDS DEEPER WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE CYCLONE
WILL SOON ENCOUNTER VWS OVER 40 KNOTS AND, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE IN-
PHASE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF STY 23W, WILL OFFSET THE OUTFLOW AND
BEGIN THE FINAL WEAKENING PHASE. STY SONGDA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND COMPLETE ETT BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#53 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 4:14 pm

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#54 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 4:20 pm

Good Morning Songda...

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#55 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 4:39 pm

Wow!

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#56 Postby kala » Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:49 pm

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#57 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:33 pm

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#58 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:47 pm

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#59 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:30 pm

120 knots...

WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO SHOW THE EFFECTS
OF THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE STRUCTURE HAS STARTED TO ELONGATE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE EYE IS CLOUD FILLED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AN 112058Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MORE RAGGED CORE
STRUCTURE; HOWEVER, A DEEP CONVECTIVE RING STILL SURROUNDS THE EYE
FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE 22-NM EYE IN THE MSI
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 120 KNOTS BASED ON AN
ASSESSMENT OF DECREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DUE
PRIMARILY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH VWS. TY 23W IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY SONGDA WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
EMBEDS DEEPER WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE CYCLONE
STRUCTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ELONGATE AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS VWS
OVER 40 KNOTS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TY SONGDA WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#60 Postby kala » Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:13 am

1900hurricane wrote:Dr. Klotzbach on the rarity of super typhoons this far north:



https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/785979104461852673



https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/785981191073607681


Interesting how we've had Chaba and Songda both just this year, so strong, so far north.
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