WPAC: SONGDA - Extratropical

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#61 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 2:10 am

23W SONGDA 161012 0600 32.5N 153.8E WPAC 105 927
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#62 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:10 pm

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 32.5N 153.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.5N 153.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 36.1N 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 44 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 39.9N 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 33.4N 155.7E.
TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 23NM, ALBEIT MORE RAGGED, EYE EVEN
AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO COLLAPSE AS EVIDENCED BY THE
WARMING CLOUD TOPS. ADDITIONALLY, THE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS BECOME
MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH SEVERE ELONGATION AND DISPERSION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH
A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE 120458Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE TYPHOON. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS EMBEDDED DEEPER IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. CONSEQUENTLY, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS FURTHER
INTENSIFIED, PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE REMNANT
CONVECTION; HOWEVER, STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH IN-PHASE STORM MOTION ACCOUNTED FOR, HAS EASILY OFFSET
THE OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
DIPPED TO 26C AND GETTING COLDER. TY 23W HAS ALSO CROSSED INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS NOW UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS STILL A STRONG TYPHOON, THE COMBINED
NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, BEFORE TOTAL DISSIPATION SETS IN, TY SONGDA WILL COMPLETE
ETT AND BECOME A WHOLE GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW IN 12 HOURS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 26 FEET.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#63 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:11 pm

Looking like this will be a significant extratropical system as models bomb this out as it makes landfall over the Northwestern U.S, Canada.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Typhoon

#64 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:33 pm

File this one under the "not going to happen" category, but for selfish reasons, I really want to see Songda hold on to tropical characteristics long enough for it to cross the International Dateline. It may come close though, since Songda is almost to 170*E now.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Extratropical

#65 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:41 am

The remnants of Songda are beginning to re-amplify near the NW CONUS coast.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Extratropical

#66 Postby mpic » Sat Oct 15, 2016 5:12 pm

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25 miles north of Galveston


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