SIO: BRANSBY - Subtropical Depression

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jaguarjace
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SIO: BRANSBY - Subtropical Depression

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:07 pm

ZCZC 564
WTIO30 FMEE 050042 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/2/20162017
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (BRANSBY)
2.A POSITION 2016/10/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.7 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE
DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 740 SW: 460 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 560 SW: 280 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/10/05 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2016/10/06 00 UTC: 30.2 S / 44.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2016/10/06 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 45.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
NNNN

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Re: SIO: BRANSBY - Subtropical Depression

#2 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:29 am

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Re: SIO: BRANSBY - Subtropical Depression

#3 Postby kala » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:07 pm

Image

Image

What a silly name for a cyclone though. :lol:
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Re: SIO: BRANSBY - Subtropical Depression

#4 Postby terstorm1012 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:52 pm

is this early for subtropical cyclones?
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Re: SIO: BRANSBY - Subtropical Depression

#5 Postby Calasanjy » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:30 pm

I'm not sure...don't they tend to occur more near the beginning and end of the season? That is the impression I have from my limited knowledge of subtropical cyclones. I remember Luma in March (I believe) 2003 and Joel in June 2010.

You may be aware of this, but it is early for any named storm in this basin and the Southern Hemisphere as a whole. In the time I have been following Southwest Indian cyclones (since the 1999-2000 season), I cannot recall a "B" name having been used before November. They are tearing up the naming list for the 2016-17 season so far...FYI the next storm will be named
"Carlos". I suppose I don't find "Bransby" to be that silly of a name, but if it had been named "Barney" instead I may have laughed.
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Re: SIO: BRANSBY - Subtropical Depression

#6 Postby Exalt » Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:41 pm

I don't know if this is just Dvorak handling this storm badly, but it's already been classified at a T4.0..?
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Re: SIO: BRANSBY - Subtropical Depression

#7 Postby kala » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:24 pm

Calasanjy wrote:I'm not sure...don't they tend to occur more near the beginning and end of the season? That is the impression I have from my limited knowledge of subtropical cyclones. I remember Luma in March (I believe) 2003 and Joel in June 2010.

You may be aware of this, but it is early for any named storm in this basin and the Southern Hemisphere as a whole. In the time I have been following Southwest Indian cyclones (since the 1999-2000 season), I cannot recall a "B" name having been used before November. They are tearing up the naming list for the 2016-17 season so far...FYI the next storm will be named
"Carlos". I suppose I don't find "Bransby" to be that silly of a name, but if it had been named "Barney" instead I may have laughed.


According to my statistics, the last time there were two named storms before November was in 1992-93. MTS Aviona and MTS Babie formed in September and October, respectively.

On the topic of subtropical cyclone occurances... I'd bet they're relatively coincident with tropical formation, though maybe a bit of a bias to the beginning and end of the season.

These are the subtropical cyclones since I started tracking storms in the Southwest Indian (2009-10):

October - Bransby
November -
December - 03 (2011-12)
January - 10 (2009-10), Dando (2011-12)
February - 13 (2013-14)
March -
April - 09 (2010-11)
May - Joel (2009-10)

So really, any time of the season, though it seems they happen near peak quite often.

Exalt wrote:I don't know if this is just Dvorak handling this storm badly, but it's already been classified at a T4.0..?


I have a suspicion that it might be stronger than 35 kts, maybe 45 kts or so, but T4.0 might be a little much. I have no real evidence though.
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Re: SIO: BRANSBY - Subtropical Depression

#8 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:31 pm

Cool little system. It's rare to see storms with extratropical origins like this outside the north Atlantic, at least to my knowledge.

Image

TXXS25 KNES 060124
TCSSIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 06/0000Z

C. 30.1S

D. 45.3E

E. ONE/MET-10

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...FSU CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR POSSESSES A MODERATELY DEEP SYMMETRIC WARM CORE
BASED ON THE 05/1800Z MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS, UKMET, AND JMA. THEREFORE
DVORAK ANALYSES ARE INITIATED AT THIS TIME. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY, AND
EMBEDDED IN, OW YIELDING A DT OF 4.0 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT
ARE UNDEFINED BECAUSE SYSTEM WAS SUBTROPICAL 24-HOURS AGO.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...WHISNANT
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Re: SIO: BRANSBY - Subtropical Depression

#9 Postby kala » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:19 pm

at some point it was upped to 45 kts

WTIO30 FMEE 061215
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/2/20162017
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (BRANSBY)
2.A POSITION 2016/10/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.6 S / 47.2 E
(THIRTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 18 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SW: 90 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 40 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/10/07 00 UTC: 36.0 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, LOW
24H: 2016/10/07 12 UTC: 42.1 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
BRANSBY HAS REACHED ITS PEAK OF ORGANIZATION BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z.
SINCE, CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED GRADUALLY. CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED AND APPEARS NOW FRAGMENTED. WITHIN THE SEMI-CIRCLE, A
CONVECTIVE BANDING RESISTS BENEFITING FROM A BETTER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE.
THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG JET STREAK ALONG 30/35S BEGINS OF SHIFT EASTWARD
THE CUT-OFF CELL IN WHICH BRANSBY HAS DEVELOPED AND WHERE THE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK. THIS NIGHT, THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREACK SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY
THE SYSTEM WHICH EVOLVES NOW OVER COLD SST ABOUT 18°C
AS ANTICIPATED, BRANSBY IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING NOW SOUTHEASTWARDS
AND SHOULD STAY ON THIS TRACK UNTIL FILL UP WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDES
WESTERLIES. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SHARED BY ALL THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH A WEAK SPREAD.


Image
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