AUS: INVEST 92S

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kala
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AUS: INVEST 92S

#1 Postby kala » Mon Oct 10, 2016 3:45 am

A nice little low off the coast of Indonesia. Could be something TCWC Jakarta ends up getting to track and name.

Good agreement with GFS and ECMWF that we could have a TL or TC in just 2-3 days, but track beyond that is very uncertain.

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Re: AUS: INVEST 92S

#2 Postby kala » Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:11 am

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Still hanging around, still expected to develop. Probably won't end up forming north of 10S though.
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Re: AUS: INVEST 92S

#3 Postby kala » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:51 pm

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Re: AUS: INVEST 92S

#4 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:57 am

92S is still dealing with some shear, but pending upcoming ASCAT, I think we may have a classifiable tropical cyclone now.

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Re: AUS: INVEST 92S

#5 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:28 pm

In the Australian Region to qualify as a tropical cyclone a tropical LOW must be accompanied by gales surrounding more than 50% of the center of circulation for a period of at least six hours. In order to insure that adequate warnings are provided, it is not at all unusual for a system to be named as a tropical cyclone, but later reduced to tropical LOW status after a careful post-storm analysis reveals that this spatial distribution of gales criterion was not met.

http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclo ... nology.htm

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Re: AUS: INVEST 92S

#6 Postby kala » Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:33 pm

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probably isn't even a closed ciruclation, but it's getting there
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Re: AUS: INVEST 92S

#7 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:44 pm

IDW10800
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 11:27 am WST on Friday 14 October 2016
for the period until midnight WST Monday 17 October 2016.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low lies near 11S106E, just to the southwest of Christmas Island. The low is likely to move south southwestwards during the remainder of Friday, before tracking west southwestwards on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. There is a Low chance that this system could reach tropical cyclone intensity during Saturday or Sunday. By Monday conditions are becoming less favourable for the low, and it is expected to start to weaken.
The heavy rainfall at Christmas Island has eased now that the low has moved to the southwest. There is still a slight risk of heavy rainfall if a thunderstorm affects the island, but otherwise just expect some showers over the coming days. The low is likely to pass south of Cocos Islands late Sunday or on Monday. There is a slight chance of heavy rainfall if the low passes nearby, but the heaviest falls are likely to remain to the south.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Low
Monday:Low

There are no other significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are expected to develop over the next three day

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/nwcyclone.shtml
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Re: AUS: INVEST 92S

#8 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:02 pm

1900hurricane wrote:92S is still dealing with some shear, but pending upcoming ASCAT, I think we may have a classifiable tropical cyclone now.

Image


Its likely you are right, BOM don't have much interest unless these types of tropical lows classifications (TD) are modeled to track E and threaten the mainland.

Christmas Island Forecast
Forecast for the rest of Friday 14 October
Showers and thunderstorms. Heavy falls possible.
Winds: North to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots, depending on the
movement of the low.
Seas: 1.5 to 2.0 metres.
Swell: South to southwest around 1.5 metres
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