WPAC: SARIKA - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: SARIKA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2016 1:40 pm

93W INVEST 161010 1800 10.0N 130.0E WPAC 15

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 10, 2016 2:06 pm

It was only a matter of time before this was tagged. It doesn't look like it's in much of a hurry as it slowly slides west along the monsoon trough the next few days as it consolidates.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#3 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Oct 10, 2016 7:31 pm

Models show that this will be a slow-moving cyclone. It's already quite near land but it's expected to make contact 5-6 days from now. Interestingly, that will be exactly a year ago since Koppu made landfall in almost the same location.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#4 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 10, 2016 7:53 pm

Finally, we have a system in the Southern Philippine Sea.
This system is very broad and it's possible that there are several circulations embeded on it.
An upper level low is located to its northwest. Equatorward outflow is robust.

PAGASA mentioned about this low pressure area two day ago. It's good that they are very vigilant this October.
Last edited by mrbagyo on Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 8:14 pm

Stronger at landfall for Luzon. Exits west of Luzon and peaks it at 942mb and rakes Hainan and Vietnam.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 8:35 pm

Several days until landfall.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 12:40 am

Is a very broad system that will take time to develop. Likely a few circulations will fight for dominance. Latest GFS 00Z takes this further north into Northern Luzon about a week from now.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#8 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 11, 2016 1:18 am

Just a pure guess, I'll bet on a landfall over Isabela Province, Northern Luzon as a strong typhoon (at least cat 4)
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:16 am

Here it is!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.3N
129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 568 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PULSATING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT ON MOST RECENT SCAT PASSES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAT IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
BY A TUTT CELL NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIGHT
TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREA IS 30C. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. BASED ON ALL
AVAILABLE DATA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#10 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:54 am

mrbagyo wrote:Just a pure guess, I'll bet on a landfall over Isabela Province, Northern Luzon as a strong typhoon (at least cat 4)


Same thinking, although I may have to wait for the next model runs if they will start showing a pretty intense typhoon.. But if ever it goes further south, my guess is it will be a Cat1.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#11 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Oct 11, 2016 7:55 am

JTWC Best Track
93W INVEST 161011 1200 11.3N 128.4E WPAC 20 1006

JMA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 11N 134E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Signs that this currently is a broad Circulation, but should consolidate soon.

06z Model runs:
GFS taking the system back to Central Luzon by the weekend almost similar to Euro's 00z run.
NAVGEM takes 93W to Cagayan-Isabela.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:46 pm

JMA upgrades to minor TD.

TD
Issued at 19:25 UTC, 11 October 2016
<Analysis at 18 UTC, 11 October>
Scale
-
Intensity
-
TD
Center position
N11°30' (11.5°)
E131°10' (131.2°)
Direction and speed of movement
WNW Slow
Central pressure
1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
23 m/s (45 kt)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 12 October>
Intensity
-
Center position of probability circle
N13°00' (13.0°)
E129°50' (129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement
NW Slow
Central pressure
1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle
200 km (110 NM)

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:34 pm

TXPQ26 KNES 111508
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 11/1430Z

C. 11.3N

D. 132.5E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF
1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:59 pm

EURO is slightly weaker on landfall, 987mb, likely over Aurora Province but strengthens this significantly to 944mb east of Hainan until another landfall in the Leizhou Peninsula. A shift north.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 4:12 pm

GFS is still gunning for a Northern Tip of Luzon landfall and east of Hong Kong.
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:37 pm

TCFA issued:

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7N 134.7E TO 16.0N 127.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 112100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 132.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.3N 129.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12N 132E, APPROXIMATELY 650
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. AN 111924Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF
CONVECTION LOCATED OVER AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF A DEFINED LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH STRONG DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AIDED BY A TUTT TO THE NORTHWEST, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE
NORTH NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
122200Z.//
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:46 pm

TPPN11 PGTW 112121

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NW OF PALAU)

B. 11/2100Z

C. 12.37N

D. 131.77E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DREW
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:55 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:23 pm

NAVGEM brings this onshore Aurora as a 993mb system. Past runs had a monster in the SCS.

CMC almost similiar to GFS except that it recurves it to Taiwan instead.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:40 pm

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