WPAC: SARIKA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#21 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:54 pm

Not quite ready to develop yet, but it's getting closer.

Image

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#22 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:16 am

The Euro is singing a different tune with this one.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:43 am

Now i'm not sure if this will get Sarika or Haima.

EURO develops this more deeper than the projected GFS monster brewing near Guam. It's the other way around for both models, GFS weaker for 93W and EURO weaker with the Guam system.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#24 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:54 am

For sure this one will be named Sarika. Also the projected tracks of the two systems from the GFS and ECMWF are different. Time to look at the ensemble members for comparison.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 2:10 am

93W INVEST 161012 0600 12.7N 130.9E WPAC 20 1005
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#26 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:33 am

Now listed as 24W in ATCF. Here's the data from Levi Cowan's site:

24W TWENTYFOUR
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 12, 2016:

Location: 13.1°N 129.9°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#27 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 12, 2016 10:07 am

First warning from JTWC looks so neat and simple. :lol: Cat1 forecast peak so far.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#28 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 12, 2016 10:59 am

Say this storm is going to be at most a Cat1 over Luzon, residents should brace for a rainfall/flooding event more than the wind. Luzon has been getting heavy amounts of rainfall especially in the central, western and southern part for the past several days. Another rainfall event in an already saturated ground doesn't look good.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#29 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:08 pm

Very favorable conditions ahead.

WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTY-FOUR)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTY-FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 526
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDS SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING AROUND AN OBSCURED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS ENHANCING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A RAGGED
LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 120915Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A
RECENT ASCAT PASS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL WARNING AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FOR THIS SYSTEM.
B. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST: SLOWLY IN THE NEAR TERM, THEN FASTER AS IT DEEPENS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND PROMOTE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 24W WILL DRAG ACROSS CENTRAL LUZON,
PHILIPPINES, THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). THE SYSTEM
WILL MOMENTARILY WEAKEN TO 60 KNOTS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BUT
SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXTEND INTO THE SCS,
REACHING 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNIFIED ON
THE GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE CYCLONE; HOWEVER,
THERE IS A 240NM SPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THIS, IN ADDITION TO
THE VARIABILITY IN THE NEAR-TERM STORM MOTION, LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#30 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:09 pm

TPPN11 PGTW 121836

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTY-FOUR)

B. 12/1800Z

C. 12.40N

D. 130.20E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND
PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#31 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:25 pm

Bit stronger on the 12Z EURO. 981mb on Aurora landfall but weaker for Hainan and Vietnam but still a formidable typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#32 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:41 pm

GFS shifted more south, has it over Polillo Islands and into Quezon Province, just northeast of Manila.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2016 4:12 pm

JTWC warning at 21:00 UTC at 30kts.Peak intensity before landfall in Phillippines is 90kts.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#34 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 5:30 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTY-FOUR)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTY-FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDS
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND AN OBSCURED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION, A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A
121747Z AMSU 89 GHZ PASS, INDICATES THE LLCC IS STILL ELONGATED AND
DISORGANIZED, WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID OF THE BROAD BANDING FEATURES IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T2.0 (30 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, A DEVELOPING TUTT CELL TO THE
EAST WILL PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW MECHANISM ONCE ESTABLISHED.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
B. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS CURRENTLY DUE TO THE INTIAL POSITIONING, WHICH MAY
REQUIRE FURTHER ADJUSTMENT. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE LLCC CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS NOTED, AS WELL AS A
POOL OF VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG ITS PATH, THERE IS AN
ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36. FORECAST
INTENSITIES PRIOR TO LANDFALL HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS SLIGHTLY TO
A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, THE ACTUAL PEAK
MAY OCCUR AFTER TAU 72, PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 24W WILL MOVE ACROSS LUZON,
PHILIPPINES AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA (SCS). RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SCS AS GENERALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT, WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE STR CAUSING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE STR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
INITIAL POSITIONING AND THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD AFTER TAU 72,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#35 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 10:00 pm

Image

Now forecasting 100 knots Cat 3 landfall.

WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTY-FOUR)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTY-FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
BANDING SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND AN OBSCURED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DESPITE THE STILL SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, A 122232Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY PASS INDICATES THE POSSIBLE MULTIPLE LLCCS FROM THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ARE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE, MORE SYMMETRIC
LLCC UNDER THE DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
CENTROID OF THE BROAD BANDING FEATURES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS).
THE SYSTEM RESIDES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST
IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BECOME MORE SOLID, THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS DECREASED. THROUGH TAU 24, INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR AT NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE LLCC CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48, TD 24W IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS FORWARD
MOTION IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE STR FAR TO
THE NORTH OVER TAIWAN, IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE STR REESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH AFTER TAU 48 AND TD
24W WILL ACCELERATE TOWARDS LUZON. BY TAU 48, ANOTHER TUTT
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 24W WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO PROVIDE INCREASED OUTFLOW, WHICH COMBINED WITH
THE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS NOTED, WILL PROVIDE AN ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 48. FORECAST
INTENSITIES PRIOR TO LANDFALL HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS SLIGHTLY TO
A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, THE ACTUAL PEAK
MAY OCCUR AFTER TAU 72, PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 24W WILL MOVE ACROSS LUZON AND WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS). RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SCS AS
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AFTER TAU 72, WITH SOME
MODELS INDICATING A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE STR CAUSING A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK, WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE
STR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING AND THE INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#36 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:09 am

I think it's now trying to form a CDO based on last sat imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/vis-animated.gif
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#37 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:30 am

WDPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTY-FOUR)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 0359Z AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICTS A VERY BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION, AND A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T2.0 (30
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS IMPROVING OUTFLOW AS TD 24W IS
TAPPING INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) LOCATED TO
THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER ANOTHER TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH EAST
IS SETTING UP HINDERING EASTERN OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY FAVORABLE BETWEEN 30 AND 31 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD 24W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK EXTENSION OF A DEEP-
LAYERED EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE WESTERN PACIFIC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE RIDGE EXTENSION TROUGH TAU 48. BY TAU 48 THE FAR WESTWARD
PORTION OF THE RIDGE ARM WILL BUILD, DEVELOPING INTO THE DOMINANT
STEERING RIDGE MOVING NORTH OF LUZON AND ACCELERATING TD 24W
WESTWARD. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TROUGH TAU 60 AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE, LARGELY BY THE EASTERN POSITIONED TUTT CELL
FILLING IN AND HAVING LESS INFLUENCE ON OUTFLOW. SOMETIME BETWEEN
TAU 60 AND 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER LUZON AS
A TYPHOON.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO RESURFACE OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WEAKENED BUT LARGELY INTACT. THE STEERING RIDGE
WILL BE FULLY DEVELOPED AND CONTINUE TO TRACK TD 24 WESTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE SUPPORTING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED DURING THE NEAR FORECAST DUE TO
THE WEAK STEERING PROVIDED BY THE RIDGE EXTENSION. THIS PLACES A
LARGE UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL BE BY TAU 48, AND THE
RESULTANT TRACK AS THE DOMINANT RIDGE BUILDS. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#38 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:03 am

AND we have TS Sarika.
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:34 am

Image

TS 1621 (Sarika)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 13 October 2016

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 13 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°00' (14.0°)
E127°50' (127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 220 km (120 NM)
S 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 14 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°55' (13.9°)
E126°35' (126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 14 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°05' (14.1°)
E125°25' (125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 15 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°35' (14.6°)
E123°25' (123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50' (15.8°)
E119°30' (119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:49 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (SARIKA)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL CONSOLIDATING WITH NASCENT
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INDISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 131706Z GPM 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THAT
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT, BUT IS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE FIXES FROM ALL
AGENCIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 1706Z GPM PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES REPORTING T2.5 (35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A GOOD EQUATORWARD
CHANNEL. HOWEVER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING PRESSURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
AND LIMITING INTENSIFICATION AT THE CURRENT TIME. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE BETWEEN 30 AND 31 CELSIUS AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY LOW AT 5-10 KTS. TD 24W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN PACIFIC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE RIDGE EXTENSION TROUGH TAU 48. BY TAU 48 THE FAR WESTWARD
PORTION OF THE RIDGE ARM WILL BUILD, DEVELOPING INTO THE DOMINANT
STEERING RIDGE MOVING NORTH OF LUZON AND ACCELERATING TD 24W
WESTWARD. SLOW AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TROUGH TAU 24
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE AND
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PRESSURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. BY
TAU 36 AND THROUGH LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48, INTENSIFICATION RATES WILL
INCREASE AS A POINT-SOURCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN CLOSE VICINITY
TO TS SARIKA, IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT
85 KTS AT TAU 48. ACTUAL INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 48, ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER LUZON AS
A TYPHOON.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO RESURFACE OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WEAKENED BUT LARGELY INTACT. THE STEERING RIDGE
WILL BE FULLY DEVELOPED AND CONTINUE TO STEER TD 24 WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING OUT
AT 80 KNOTS BEFORE TRACKING OVER HAINAN NEAR TAU 120. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 96 AND
LANDFALL, AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO
INTENSIFICATION IN THIS AREA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REFERENCE TO THE TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR MODEL
SPREAD IN THE NEAR TERM REFLECTING THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AT
THIS TIME. WITH REFERENCE TO THE FORWARD SPEED, DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT ALONG TRACK DIVERGENCE, DUE TO THE GENERALLY WEAK
STEERING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THIS PLACES A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF LANDFALL AND THE AMOUNT OF TIME AVAILABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY.//
NNNN
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