WPAC: SARIKA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#61 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:40 pm

Eye coming ashore Catanduanes Island.

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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#62 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 4:11 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST SIX
HOURS WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PHILIPPINES AND A
141842Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN EYE JUST EAST OF PANAY
ISLAND WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO
VERY FAVORABLE. TY SARIKA HAS STARTED TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY SARIKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR TO THE NORTH. VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO 90 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL OVER LUZON IN ABOUT 20 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SHORT
WEAKENING PHASE AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS OVER THE RUGGED LUZON TERRAIN
BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) JUST BEFORE TAU 36.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SCS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WHICH WILL
BEGIN A SECOND INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE STEERING STR WILL
STRENGTHEN, FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS
HAINAN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY SARIKA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAINAN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HANOI,
VIETNAM. THE INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION;
HOWEVER, INCREASED LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN WILL OFFSET THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM WILL
ULTIMATELY BE TIED TO THE TRACK OF THE TYPHOON AS IT PASSES HAINAN.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE PAST FOUR
HOURS; HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAN OUT ONCE THE SYSTEM
EMERGES IN THE SCS. DO TO THE MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST,
THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 14, 2016 6:18 pm

TPPN11 PGTW 142126

A. TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA)

B. 14/2100Z

C. 14.17N

D. 124.81E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN CMG
YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET YIELDS A 4.0 WHILE PT YIELDS A 4.5. DBO
PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE


why is the JTWC doing this when the DT is clear cut?
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#64 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 8:13 pm

24W SARIKA 161015 0000 14.3N 124.4E WPAC 80 974

Up to 80 knots.
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#65 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Oct 14, 2016 8:47 pm

The beginnings of the eye is starting to become apparent on visible imagery.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#66 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 14, 2016 9:52 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#67 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 10:12 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEEPENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT HAS SHOWN INDICATIONS OF AN EYE
FORMING. A 142219Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING
IN ALL QUADRANTS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PHILIPPINES AND IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SMALL MICROWAVE EYE IN THE CORIOLIS IMAGE. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND INCREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO T4.5 (77
KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TY 24W IS TRACKING IN A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE. TY SARIKA IS MOVING
ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY SARIKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR TO THE NORTH. VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER LUZON. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT WEAKENING PHASE AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS OVER THE RUGGED
LUZON TERRAIN BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) NEAR
TAU 24. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SCS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
WHICH WILL BEGIN A SECOND INTENSIFICATION PHASE. TY SARIKA WILL TURN
TO A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARDS HAINAN AS THE STEERING STR
STRENGTHENS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY SARIKA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAINAN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HANOI,
VIETNAM. THE INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION;
HOWEVER, INCREASED LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN WILL OFFSET THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM WILL
ULTIMATELY BE TIED TO THE TRACK OF THE TYPHOON AS IT PASSES HAINAN.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#68 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 14, 2016 10:58 pm

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #11
FOR: TYPHOON #KarenPH (SARIKA)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 11:00 AM, 15 October 2016

Karen has passed north of Catanduanes and is now moving towards Aurora- Quezon area.

•Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 500 km diameter of the typhoon.
•Possible occurrence of storm surges along the coastal communities of areas with TCWS #3 and #2 and flashfloods and landslides over all areas with TCWSs.
•Expected to make landfall over the Quezon-Aurora area tomorrow early morning.
•Fisherfolks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the seaboard of Eastern Samar.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, the eye of Typhoon "KAREN" was located based on all available data at 95 km North Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes(14.4°N, 124.4°E).

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of up to 130 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 180 kph.

Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 17 kph.

Forecast Positions:
•24 Hour( Tomorrow morning): Vicinity of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija
•48 Hour(Monday morning):455 km West Northwest of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)
•72 Hour(Tuesday morning): 785 km North Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)
•96 Hour(Wednesday morning):1,155 km Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)

TCWS #3(121-170 kph Expected in 18 hours)
Luzon: Catanduanes,Camarines Norte, Northern Quezon incuding Polilio is. and Aurora.

Impacts of the wind:
•Heavy damage to high–risk structures;
•Moderate damage to medium-risk structures;
•Light damage to low risk structures
•Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed
•Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
•There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
•Almost all banana plants are downed.
•Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
•Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
•Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
•Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters.
Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

TCWS #2 (61-120 kph Expected in 24 hours)
Luzon: Rest of Quezon, Camarines Sur, Albay, Rizal, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Quirino, Zambales, Tarlac, Pangasinan, Nueva Vizcaya, La Union and Benguet.

Impacts of the wind:
•Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
•Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
•No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
•Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
•A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
•Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
•Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
•Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
•In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
•Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
•Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
•Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters.
Storm surge possible at coastal areas.

TCWS #1(30-60 kph Expected in 36 hours)
Luzon: Sorsogon, Masbate icluding Ticao and Burias Island, Isabela, Romblon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna, Cavite, Metro Manila, Pampanga, Bataan, and Ifugao.

Visayas:Northern Samar.

Impacts of the wind:
•Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
•Light damage to medium to high risk structures
•Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
•Twigs of small trees may be broken.
•Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 2 PM today.
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#69 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 14, 2016 11:56 pm

Image

Concentric eyewall or just a spiral band?
Looks CE to me.
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#70 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:03 am

Not a pretty sight... Sarika has a very well defined inner-core. I think there is a large chance we observe rapid intensification at this point:

Image
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#71 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:33 am

Not seeing any RI at this point. Just steady intensification as forecast. May have an 85-90 kt typhoon at landfall
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#72 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:26 am

^But she may already have that intensity at this moment, because it looks like a decent eye is clearing out on visible satloop. I recall Nari in 2013 was a 100-knot typhoon when it made landfall in Aurora, but never had a visible eye during its lifetime.
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#73 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:29 am

Looks like Sarika is speeding up though. Earlier I thought she still got 12+ hours over water before landfall, but at this rate that may happen in the very wee hours of Sunday.
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#74 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 15, 2016 2:30 am

Image

:eek:
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#75 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 4:53 am

90 knots and forecast for a Cat 3 100 knots at landfall.

WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS EXPANDED AND FURTHER DEEPENED AS IT FORMED A 15NM
RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
THE EYE FEATURE WHICH LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE
150341Z GPM PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 24W IS
TRACKING IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO
VERY FAVORABLE. TY SARIKA IS MOVING ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO 100 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER LUZON. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT WEAKENING PHASE AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS OVER THE RUGGED
LUZON TERRAIN BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BEFORE
TAU 24. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND INTO THE SCS
PROMOTING A SECOND INTENSIFICATION PHASE - 95 KNOTS AT TAU 48.
AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE ISLAND OF HAINAN BEFORE TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY SARIKA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAINAN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HANOI,
VIETNAM. THE INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION;
HOWEVER, INCREASED LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN WILL OFFSET THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM WILL
ULTIMATELY BE TIED TO THE TRACK OF THE TYPHOON AS IT PASSES HAINAN.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#76 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 5:14 am

This should be a Cat 4 now. Mattrew led all Dvorak and satellite presentation no matter he weak it looked. I can say this looks far more impressive than when it reermerged near the Bahamas when it was classified as a MH.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#77 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 15, 2016 5:52 am

mrbagyo wrote:Just a pure guess, I'll bet on a landfall over Isabela Province, Northern Luzon as a strong typhoon (at least cat 4)


My Isabela province landfall prediction will most probably bust but I'll stand with the cat 4 intensity landfall.
Sarika has gotten more symmetrical with each frames. It only needs to clear the eye.
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#78 Postby NotoSans » Sat Oct 15, 2016 6:24 am

euro6208 wrote:This should be a Cat 4 now. Mattrew led all Dvorak and satellite presentation no matter he weak it looked. I can say this looks far more impressive than when it reermerged near the Bahamas when it was classified as a MH.

Not all storms are underestimated by the Dvorak technique though. Storms that are rapidly intensifying before smashing into the Philippines tend to be weaker than what Dvorak estimates indicate. Rammasun in 2014 would be one of the best example to illustrate this - Dvorak suggests a Cat 4 but surface observations suggests a Cat 3.
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#79 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Oct 15, 2016 7:20 am

^I think recon measurement is still the best way to confirm satellite estimates plainly because of fair sampling. We can't say for sure if surface observation in one place is representative of a storm's maximum strength at the time. Although I agree with your thoughts. Recon missions in 2008 at the Western Pacific kind of confirm Dvorak technique's overestimation.
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Re: WPAC: SARIKA - Typhoon

#80 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:28 am

Up to 100 knots - CAT 3
24W SARIKA 161015 1200 15.1N 122.9E WPAC 100 941
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