WPAC: HAIMA - Post-Tropical

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Cunxi Huang
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#161 Postby Cunxi Huang » Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:49 pm

F-16 18/0632Z RGB

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#162 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Oct 18, 2016 5:53 pm

looks like an ERC going on there
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#163 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:33 pm

Image

Wow. It's keeping this from going insane.

WDPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC AND TIGHTLY WOUND SPIRAL SYSTEM
WITH A WELL-DEFINED 31 NM EYE, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T7.0 TO T7.5 (140 TO 155 KNOTS) AND A
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 140 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THERE IS A PROMINENT ANTICYCLONE FEATURE TO THE NORTH BLOCKING THE
NORMALLY ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE CURRENT INTENSITY THE RESTRICTION TO FLOW IS HAVING
LIMITED IMPACT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29
TO 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY STY HAIMA IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY HAIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD GUIDED BY THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT
SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH LUZON AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 30 STY HAIMA WILL
REEMERGE OVER WATER REORGANIZING AS A TYPHOON AND CONTINUE
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER STILL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN JUST EAST OF HONG KONG AROUND TAU 42
AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND AND STARTS TO TURN
NORTHWEST ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY HAIMA WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERN TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FOR AN
EXTENSIVE PERIOD OVER LAND AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. BY TAU 120 THE
REMNANTS OF STY HAIMA WILL REEMERGE OVER WATER COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST THROUGH TAU 72 AND MAKES LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG.
HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK AS THE
SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF VARIABILITY
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE OVER WATER. OVERALL
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#164 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:40 pm

Closeup of the expected landfall right on the border of Isabela and Cayagan. The biggest city in this area is Tuguegarao Cagayan and many other smaller cities around it.

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#165 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:42 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2016 Time : 231000 UTC
Lat : 16:11:21 N Lon : 126:08:39 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 910.3mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : -1.4C Cloud Region Temp : -78.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 155km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.5 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#166 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:06 pm

GFS sees some rapid intensification 12 hours before landfall I assume could be after the ERC is done...
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#167 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:14 pm

Both James Reynold and Josh Morgerman will be in Tuguegarao.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone
https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#168 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:20 pm

Yup, another EWRC happening with Haima. I don't know if the models can actually see structural changes in a system such as an eyewall replacement,but if environmental condition is very favorable then I think it might be completed as quick as what happened yesterday.

Cat4 is still a no-win situation for Luzon if the latest EWRC does weaken Haima prior to landall. If anything, the scope of typhoon-force winds will be further extended.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#169 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:45 pm

[Image
Grim Reaper
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#170 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:51 pm

Haima is still moving west with a slight jog to the southwest while the eye is contracting due to the ongoing Eyewall Replacement Cycle.
IF it doesn't change its current movement, it will strike Dinapigue, Isabela (close to the border of Isabela and Aurora province). JTWC's and JMA's forecast landfall point will bust in case that happens.
Image

I wonder what will be the effect of the remnants of Sarika to the subtropical ridge which is currently steering Haima, if any.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#171 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 18, 2016 8:13 pm

euro6208 wrote:Both James Reynold and Josh Morgerman will be in Tuguegarao.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone
https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV


Then they better be ready to swim in head high floodwater - Tuguegarao and neighboring towns are the catch basin of Sierra Madre to the east, Cordillera to the west and Caraballo to the south. (saving grace is that Haima is moving faster than Koppu last year)
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#172 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 8:18 pm

If JTWC uses Satcon like they did with Meranti, this should be 160 knots now.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10182151
SATCON: MSLP = 906 hPa MSW = 158 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 150.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 149 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 210 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -1.5 knots Source: MW

Member Estimates

ADT: 910 hPa 146 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT182110
CIMSS AMSU: 930 hPa 124 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10181817
SSMIS: 904 hPa 152 knots Date: 10182151
CIRA AMSU: 906 hPa 139 knots Date: 10181642
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#173 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Oct 18, 2016 8:41 pm

Beyond incredible STY. Very impressed by the wrapped structure. James Reynold and Josh Morgerman will have some amazing video and stories. I would not be surprise if sustained winds approached 180mph.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#174 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 18, 2016 9:03 pm

euro6208 wrote:GFS sees some rapid intensification 12 hours before landfall I assume could be after the ERC is done...


MU cannot forecast eyewall replacements due to its resolution. You need a model with ~2 km resolution to forecast those. HWRF can
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#175 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Oct 18, 2016 9:34 pm

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#176 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 18, 2016 9:44 pm

I'm skeptical that eyewall replacement can be completed prior to landfall. The outer eyewall looks quite unwieldy.

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#177 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 9:48 pm

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#178 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:01 pm

Both JMA and JTWC shifted south. Now has landfall over Palanan Isabela. JMA a tad north over Palanan Bay.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#179 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:14 pm

The seemingly southwest dip then NW jog of the eye is quite suspicious. Could it be the effects of current ERC? I've seen typhoons/hurricanes with their inner eye rotating within the new outer eye.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#180 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:36 pm

The streets in Tuguegarao already flooded. Terrible as Haima isn't even there yet.
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