WPAC: HAIMA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#201 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 19, 2016 6:41 am

I can't remember the last time a super cat 5 that was initially forecast to make landfall in the Philippines but didn't.The P.I got saved.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#202 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Oct 19, 2016 7:32 am

euro6208 wrote:I can't remember the last time a super cat 5 that was initially forecast to make landfall in the Philippines but didn't.The P.I got saved.

Really, since when was a major typhoon direct landfall and Signal No. 5 considered safe? Don't downplay the situation. It's not easy for people going through the tough times ahead. Where is your sympathy? And no, please don't compare Guam's preparedness to ours.

It's already flooding in Tuguegarao. Tropical-storm force winds are now plowing the coasts of Cagayan and Isabela. Haima is not yet at landfall. That's NOT safe at all.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#203 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:38 am

Parma in 2009 was also forecast to hit as a Cat5 but crossed Luzon as a Cat2 instead. Comparing it with Megi that hit as a 145kt typhoon, Parma was more destructive and deadlier.

I get the hype with Cat5's, but it's a whole different story when a storm, whether a Cat1 or Cat5, is knocking at your door.



Anyway, there ERC definitely extended the swath of typhoon-strength winds. The mega eye above says it all.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#204 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:13 am

Looks like landfall is now occurring. It's notable how close eyewall replacement came to completion prior to land interaction.

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#205 Postby NotoSans » Wed Oct 19, 2016 12:20 pm

A private weather station in Cabagan, Isabela recorded a minimum pressure of 942.3 hPa.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... N3#history

James Reynolds and Josh Morgerman are both in Tuguegarao, recording a minimum pressure of 947.5 hPa and 941 hPa, respectively.

Based on all these data, it looks like Haima is a 935-mb typhoon right now. I would guess the pressure was probably near 920 mb at landfall, but it may be more difficult to estimate the winds due to the ongoing ERC.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#206 Postby NotoSans » Wed Oct 19, 2016 1:24 pm

Euro continues to bring the typhoon near the Dapeng Peninsula while GFS has shifted slightly to the east and forecast a landfall near Lufeng.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#207 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 19, 2016 4:05 pm

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#208 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 19, 2016 8:14 pm

At first glance, it looks like Haima has retained structure considerably better than Sarika did after crossing Luzon.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#209 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:08 pm

1900hurricane wrote:At first glance, it looks like Haima has retained structure considerably better than Sarika did after crossing Luzon.



Which is interesting IMO because Haima traversed the mountainous areas of Northern Luzon, while Sarika crossed the flatter Central Luzon.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#210 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:23 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:At first glance, it looks like Haima has retained structure considerably better than Sarika did after crossing Luzon.



Which is interesting IMO because Haima traversed the mountainous areas of Northern Luzon, while Sarika crossed the flatter Central Luzon.

I wonder if the jumbo outer eyewall played a part. Usually when storms cross land, the added drag will cause the core to collapse in on itself, but with such a large eyewall, maybe even Luzon wasn't able to get it to collapse.

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#211 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:36 pm

Also worth noting that poleward outflow is beginning to open back up somewhat.

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#212 Postby RockyRobbie85 » Thu Oct 20, 2016 2:23 am

The eye is huge right now and is still packing upper level CAT 2 Strength winds. I don't think HK has been close to a storm of this strength in over a decade!
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#213 Postby qscdefb » Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:29 am

RockyRobbie85 wrote:The eye is huge right now and is still packing upper level CAT 2 Strength winds. I don't think HK has been close to a storm of this strength in over a decade!

Typhoon Vicente of 2012 was stronger than Haima at this stage. Plus, Vicente was at the west, putting Hong Kong at the stronger semicircle.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#214 Postby RockyRobbie85 » Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:58 am

qscdefb wrote:
RockyRobbie85 wrote:The eye is huge right now and is still packing upper level CAT 2 Strength winds. I don't think HK has been close to a storm of this strength in over a decade!

Typhoon Vicente of 2012 was stronger than Haima at this stage. Plus, Vicente was at the west, putting Hong Kong at the stronger semicircle.


Windspeeds peaked at 140km/hr during Vicente: http://www.hko.gov.hk/informtc/vicente/cch_speed.htm
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#215 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 20, 2016 5:12 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS REGAINED A RAGGED 75NM EYE AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
DETERIORATES AFTER IT TRACKED ACROSS NORTHERN LUZON, PHILIPPINES.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI WHICH
LINED UP WELL WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE
200515Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T4.9 TO T5.5 AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW UNDER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW
THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE REMNANT CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TYPHOON HAIMA IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STEERING RIDGE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL TO THE
EAST OF HONG KONG JUST BEFORE TAU 24. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM CONTENDS WITH MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TY
25W WILL THEN RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT DRAGS MORE POLEWARD OVER THE RUGGED
CHINESE TERRAIN, DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#216 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 20, 2016 5:14 am

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#217 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 20, 2016 6:01 pm

Due largely to the core size, Haima has been unable to restrengthen over the South China Sea. Mean SATCON intensity estimates have been bouncing around between 80-85 kt, which matches both the Dvorak Technique and JTWC's intensity estimate rather well. As far as the individual SATCON members, there is some spread though, with ADT lying rather high compared to the mean and AMSU running a little lower. It's also interesting to note that there are large disparities in RMW between the two aforementioned objective intensity estimates. The more bullish ADT has the RMW bouncing around between 61-81 km (depending on the frame) while the bearish AMSU has a truly staggering 117 km RMW.

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#218 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 20, 2016 6:05 pm

Whew, it's not common at all to see an eyewall of this size.

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#219 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 20, 2016 7:50 pm

landfall in the next few hours.

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#220 Postby NotoSans » Thu Oct 20, 2016 10:35 pm

Looks to be making landfall near Shanwei. Winds over Hong Kong have increased rapidly as the western side of the eyewall edges closer.
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