WPAC: HAIMA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#81 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 16, 2016 2:40 pm

T5.5 (or about 105 knots) is fine as the W and B band width is narrow and the eye isn't too warm yet and with Alyono suggesting that there'd be some lag on the other thread, one would think you'd be more conservative.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#82 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 16, 2016 2:42 pm

EURO getting behind...

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#83 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 16, 2016 3:17 pm

GFS still bottoming this out sub 900 albeit weaker. 895 mb and crashes it into Northern Luzon +900mb.

GFS and EURO agrees on track.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#84 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 16, 2016 3:20 pm

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#85 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 16, 2016 4:05 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 163 NM NORTH OF YAP,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A NEWLY-DEVELOPED EYE. CONVECTIVE BANDING
HAS INCREASED, AND IT APPEARS THAT TY 25W IS BEGINNING A MORE RAPID
PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED
FROM T4.5 (KNES/PGTW) TO T5.5 (PGTW) WITHIN THE LAST 3 HOURS. THUS,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KNOTS. TY 25W CONTINUES TO BE IN
A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS, EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE CURRENT STR TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR
CONTINUED DEEPENING WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION LIKELY. TY 25W IS
EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK OF SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 1 TO
2 DAYS. THEREAFTER, THE STEERING INFLUENCE WILL TRANSITION TO
ANOTHER STR CENTERED NEAR TAIWAN. DURING THIS TRANSITION, THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY BECOME RESTRICTED, LEADING TO SOME SLIGHT
WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LUZON.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE LATTER TAUS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM GETS TO LUZON. AT THIS TIME, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONSIDERS THE SCENARIO OF A CLOSE APPROACH BUT NO
LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 96, GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES, BUT THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TURN MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE.
THE EGRR FALLS TO THE RIGHT, SUGGESTING A TRACK MORE THROUGH THE
TAIWAN STRAIT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ONLY
UP THROUGH TAU 72, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK UP TO TAU 72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#86 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 16, 2016 5:08 pm

THE TYPHOON WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR YAP.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT FAIS...ULITHI...
OR YAP.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#87 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 16, 2016 8:28 pm

Anyone know any alternatives to NRL/FNMOC and RAMMB for acquiring microwave imagery? The former two appear to have been down all day, and the latter's most recent imagery is almost 12 hours old. The lack of microwave data is driving me insane.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#88 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 16, 2016 8:33 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Anyone know any alternatives to NRL/FNMOC and RAMMB for acquiring microwave imagery? The former two appear to have been down all day, and the latter's most recent imagery is almost 12 hours old. The lack of microwave data is driving me insane.


All I can think of (poor AMSU quality):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/poes/wpac/h5-loop-am89.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/wpac.html

Scroll all the way down for Polar imagery.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#89 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 16, 2016 8:54 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Anyone know any alternatives to NRL/FNMOC and RAMMB for acquiring microwave imagery? The former two appear to have been down all day, and the latter's most recent imagery is almost 12 hours old. The lack of microwave data is driving me insane.


How about this one -
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2016_25W/webManager/mainpage.html
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#90 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 16, 2016 9:04 pm

CIMSS MIMIC hasn't updated in over 15 hours unfortunately. In the meanimte, I've managed to get imagery from the CIMSS AMSU page and the CIMSS ARCHER page. Also, RAMMB managed to collect a new image recently, which certainly helps. Based on these sources, it appears that Haima has run into a little bit of a snag building a core with what appears to have been multiple eyewalls trying to develop among the bands at once, not to dissimilar to Bolaven '12 in that regard. Based on the METOP-B pass recently provided by RAMMB, it looks almost like Haima is going through eyewall replacement, with an inner eyewall being choked off by a mostly complete outer.

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#91 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Oct 16, 2016 9:05 pm

Image
GPM
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#92 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 16, 2016 9:15 pm

It looks like JTWC hasn't been getting microwave data either. Usually there would be a few SSMIS and AMSU passes around now to supplement their position estimate.

TPPN12 PGTW 170019

A. TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA)

B. 17/0000Z

C. 12.92N

D. 136.51E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AND PT
AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 5.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#93 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Oct 16, 2016 9:28 pm

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#94 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 16, 2016 11:55 pm

Now a 100 knot Cat 3.

WDPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. HOWEVER, AFTER A STEEPER INTENSIFICATION RATE
EARLIER TODAY, THE IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS SLOWED
SOMEWHAT IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CI OF T5.5 FROM
PGTW.
TY 25W CONTINUES TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS,
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS
TRACKING
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STR TO THE
NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED DEEPENING. ONCE
THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE LLCC MORE SYMMETRICALLY, A
PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO
REACH A PEAK OF SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 1 TO
2 DAYS. THEREAFTER, THE STEERING INFLUENCE WILL TRANSITION TO
ANOTHER STR CENTERED NEAR TAIWAN. DURING THIS TRANSITION, THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY BECOME RESTRICTED STARTING AROUND TAU 48,
LEADING TO SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LUZON.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 25W WILL TURN POLEWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE
STR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE
THE SYSTEM GETS TO LUZON. AT THIS TIME, THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CONSIDERS THE SCENARIO OF A CLOSE APPROACH BUT NO LANDFALL. AFTER
TAU 72, GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES, BUT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
TURN TOWARD MAINLAND CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ONLY UP THROUGH TAU 72, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#95 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:17 am

Peek a boo. :D

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#96 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 17, 2016 5:04 am

Up to 105 knots.

WDPN32 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 848 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED VERY DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED
7NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
IN THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WARM SSTS, EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. IT IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 145 KNOTS
BY TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, THE STEERING WILL TRANSITION TO ANOTHER STR
CENTERED NEAR TAIWAN. DURING THIS TRANSITION, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WILL BECOME RESTRICTED LEADING TO SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
CLIPS THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY HAIMA WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD INTO A BREAK IN
THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL EAST OF HONG KONG SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96.
DECREASED OUTFLOW AND INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WILL LEAD INTO
GRADUAL THEN RAPID DECAY. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO
45 KNOTS AS IT DISSIPATES OVER LAND. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE, ALBEIT
LIMITED, REMAIN TIGHT UP TO TAU 72. AFTERWARDS, THERE IS A 300 NM
SPREAD BY END OF FORECAST. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#97 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:30 am

Nearing super typhoon status, although I'd prefer it if the CDO became more symmetrical.
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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#98 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:11 am

The inner core appears to have worked itself out, but there is already a big wrapping outer band forming per the latest GPM pass.

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#99 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:48 pm

NRL is back. Eyewall replacement is well underway.

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Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Typhoon

#100 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 17, 2016 4:28 pm

Up to 120 knots Cat 4.

WDPN32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A TIGHTLY SPIRALED SYSTEM WITH A 13 NM WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE
GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. A 171638Z AMSR2 89
GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SOLID INNER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A
SECONDARY OUTER RING FORMING WITH A 35 NM RADIUS, SUGGESTING AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS UNDERWAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T6.0 TO T6.5 (115 TO 127 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 30 CELSIUS.
CURRENTLY TY HAIMA IS TRACKING NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY ON A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY HAIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24,
KEEPING A NORTHWESTERN TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO REACH 130 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN WEAKEN FOR A
PERIOD AS THE INNER EYE WALL IS REPLACED. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST, REACHING
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
COAST OF LUZON IS EXPECTED NEAR TAU 48 SETTING IN MOTION A WEAKENING
TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
C. BEYOND TAU 72 TY HAIMA WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STEERING RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING FROM A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK. BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF
HONG KONG AND TRACKING INLAND AS IT COMPLETES ITS TRACK SHIFT.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEYOND TAU 72 SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN TRACK MOTION
AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS, BUT ALL AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS ARE
SHOWING A NORTHWARD CURVE AROUND THE STEERING RIDGE. DUE TO THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS UP TO TAU 72 AND RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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