ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2016 12:43 pm

AL, 99, 2016101618, , BEST, 0, 225N, 765W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS031, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031,
AL, 99, 2016101700, , BEST, 0, 223N, 754W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS031, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031,
AL, 99, 2016101706, , BEST, 0, 221N, 745W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS031, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031,
AL, 99, 2016101712, , BEST, 0, 220N, 735W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS031, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031, SPAWNINVEST, al772016 to al992016,
AL, 99, 2016101718, , BEST, 0, 220N, 725W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118463
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 17, 2016 12:55 pm

Chance of Formation in 5 Days Up to 60%

Image

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: ...

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers located over the
southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and adjacent western
Atlantic waters is associated with a broad surface low. Upper-level
winds are expected to remains unfavorable for significant
development during the next day or two, but they could become more
conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Wednesday
when the system begins to drift northward or north-northwestward.
Locally heavy rainfall over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos should diminish by tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Stewart
Last edited by abajan on Mon Oct 17, 2016 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:38 pm

12z Euro has a below 1000 mb system in 96 hours but doesn't move to the U.S east coast.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:53 pm

Maybe an NEUS threat later on, I guess it's how far west it goes, and if the trough is negatively tilted (Correct me if I'm wrong)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#5 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:54 pm

MSLP has been dropping all day in the Turks and Caicos
Currently seeing 1003mb

Some strong cells just east of the islands.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#6 Postby Nimbus » Mon Oct 17, 2016 4:03 pm

Not too well organized yet, certainly Bermuda doesn't need it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#7 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 17, 2016 4:19 pm

GCANE wrote:MSLP has been dropping all day in the Turks and Caicos
Currently seeing 1003mb

Some strong cells just east of the islands.

http://i66.tinypic.com/w2g2gw.jpg

That's a pretty low pressure for a system which isn't a tropical storm. I think formation chances will be increased in the 8 PM TWO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#8 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 17, 2016 4:22 pm

weathaguyry wrote:Maybe an NEUS threat later on, I guess it's how far west it goes, and if the trough is negatively tilted (Correct me if I'm wrong)

Hate to say it but I believe some of the models were hinting at a North Carolina threat from this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 17, 2016 4:39 pm

Ahhh!! The dreaded Invest 99L! :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#10 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 17, 2016 4:54 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Ahhh!! The dreaded Invest 99L! :lol:
wasnt that the hermine designation?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#11 Postby Ken711 » Mon Oct 17, 2016 5:38 pm

abajan wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:Maybe an NEUS threat later on, I guess it's how far west it goes, and if the trough is negatively tilted (Correct me if I'm wrong)

Hate to say it but I believe some of the models were hinting at a North Carolina threat from this.


What models?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#12 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 17, 2016 6:07 pm

Ken711 wrote:
abajan wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:Maybe an NEUS threat later on, I guess it's how far west it goes, and if the trough is negatively tilted (Correct me if I'm wrong)

Hate to say it but I believe some of the models were hinting at a North Carolina threat from this.


What models?

This post comes to mind, but I think there were other references.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#13 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 17, 2016 6:13 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z Euro has a below 100mbs system in 96 hours but doesn't move to the U.S east coast.

http://i.imgur.com/mwTOiMq.png

http://i.imgur.com/tNGOnBr.png

That would be a mighty powerful hurricane! :lol:
(I know you meant below 1000 mbs)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2016 6:15 pm

abajan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z Euro has a below 100mbs system in 96 hours but doesn't move to the U.S east coast.

http://i.imgur.com/mwTOiMq.png

http://i.imgur.com/tNGOnBr.png

That would be a mighty powerful hurricane! :lol:
(I know you meant below 1000 mbs)


Oh boy of course.Is fixed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2016 6:22 pm

A broad area of low pressure located near the southeastern Bahamas
is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms over the western Atlantic between the Bahamas and
Bermuda. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for
significant development, but could become more conducive for
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation on Wednesday or Thursday
when the system begins to drift northward or north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#16 Postby sandy18 » Mon Oct 17, 2016 6:26 pm

abajan wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:Maybe an NEUS threat later on, I guess it's how far west it goes, and if the trough is negatively tilted (Correct me if I'm wrong)

Hate to say it but I believe some of the models were hinting at a North Carolina threat from this.

Please say it ain't so!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#17 Postby Kazmit » Mon Oct 17, 2016 8:06 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Ahhh!! The dreaded Invest 99L! :lol:
wasnt that the hermine designation?

Yep. What goes around comes around. Hopefully this won't be so painful to watch. :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#18 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 17, 2016 8:25 pm

Wow, check out MIMIC-TPW. I don't think I have seen an area deepen as quickly and already seeing a rotation set in.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#19 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 17, 2016 8:30 pm

Solid Black Dot - good sign a hot tower is firing off.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#20 Postby JtSmarts » Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:39 am

Looks like everyone is suffering from Matthew fatigue. :lol:

Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located just
to the northeast of the southeastern Bahamas has become more
concentrated this morning, and surface observations indicate that
pressures are falling in the area. The low is expected to slowly
intensify as upper-level winds become more conducive, and a
subtropical or tropical cyclone could form during the next day or
two as the low moves northward or north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

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