ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#21 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:34 am

Surface to 700mb looks pretty well stacked.
On the SE side of the UL trough.
Trough is forecasted to weaken to a ULL in about 30 hrs and gone in about 60 hrs.
Looking on WV and how its filling in, that may occur a little earlier.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 346,24.172
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#22 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:41 am

Looking at Tuesday's 00Z Euro and COAMPs runs, this is getting pretty close to New England.
Since it will likely be extratropical by then, very likely a good portion from NJ to Canadian Maritimes will feel the effects.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#23 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:57 am

1004mb at Providenciales, Turks Islands
https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fi ... &sp=M3FFL8
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:44 am

Shower activity associated with a well-defined, non-tropical low
pressure system located just to the northeast of the Turks and
Caicos has changed little during the past several hours. The low is
expected to slowly intensify as upper-level winds become more
conducive, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form during
the next couple of days while the low moves northward on Wednesday
and turns north-northwestward or northwestward on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#25 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:54 am

Looks like the UL trough is already dissipating and transistioning to an ULL at 25N 74W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#26 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:39 am

06Z GFS is showing the MS-Vally surface low as deepening compared to earlier runs.
It is forecast to track to New England, and combine with 99L,

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 5702727522
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#27 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:24 am

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 18 OCTOBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z OCTOBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
A. 19/1800Z
B. NOAA3 01GGA INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.5N 68.5W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2030Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX OF THIS SYSTEM
AT 20/1730Z NEAR 27.0N 70.5W
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ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#28 Postby AJC3 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:50 am

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 18 OCTOBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z OCTOBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
A. 19/1800Z
B. NOAA3 01GGA INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.5N 68.5W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2030Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX OF THIS SYSTEM
AT 20/1730Z NEAR 27.0N 70.5W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#29 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:53 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#30 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:55 am

Yes! Definitely very unorganized at the moment. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Upstream ridges and downstream troughs have plagued the models in the past. We'll see what it does.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#31 Postby Ken711 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:03 pm

12z GFS shows it merging with a low coming from the Ohio Valley.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#32 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:05 pm

Ken711 wrote:12z GFS shows it merging with a low coming from the Ohio Valley.


Looks like it may bomb in New England
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#33 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:23 pm

That is exactly what I am afraid of. I don't think it would be a Sandy #2 but the water sure is warm in the northwestern extent of the Gulf Stream right now and the 500 mb heights in the Northeast are forecasted to run well below normal.

Image
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016101812&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=200

GCANE wrote: Looks like it may bomb in New England
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#34 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:48 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little
better organized since yesterday in association with a well-defined,
non-tropical low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles
northeast of the Turks and Caicos. The low is expected to acquire
some tropical characteristics as upper-level winds become more
conducive, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone will likely form
during the next few days. The low is forecast to move northward on
Wednesday and turn northwestward on Thursday, before heading
northeastward out to sea by the end of the week. A NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent


$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#35 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:24 pm

Don't look at the latest EURO. Yuck. It agrees with the GFS. It looks like the storm is coming up the coast. You have a trough-ridge-trough pattern between the East Coast trough, the Canadian Maritimes Ridge, and a Greenland low. That's a very stable pattern.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016101812/ecmwf_z500a_atl_4.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#36 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:24 pm

12Z UKMET is bombing it for the Canadian Maritimes.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#37 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:30 pm

12Z GFS combines the lows over the Hudson Valley and bombs it over Maine.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/2016101812/slp.anim
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#38 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:45 pm

Yeah it keeps the two lows separate though. Follow the low associated with this disturbance carefully. It stays along the southern edge of the trough over the NE and never combines with it. Taking a second look at the 12Z Euro, it looks like it does the same thing too but it is a step closer to a full phase. It's going to be an interesting next few days.

GCANE wrote:12Z GFS combines the lows over the Hudson Valley and bombs it over Maine.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/2016101812/slp.anim
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#39 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:53 pm

How close will this get to
The NC coast?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#40 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:57 pm

Check back on Thu. We'll have a better idea.

emeraldislenc wrote:How close will this get to
The NC coast?
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