ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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emeraldislenc
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#41 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:18 pm

Thanks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#42 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:46 pm

Just hope we do not get any rain in eastern NC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#43 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:57 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:How close will this get to
The NC coast?


Maybe 150-200 miles offshore as a weak low. You probably won't notice it passing around noon Friday as that strong cold front pushes offshore. I don't think this could be more than a highly-sheared and weak tropical or subtropical storm. Should merge with the main frontal low near northern New England our SE Canada on Saturday. Might be some significant snow for the ski resorts in VT/NH. I'm thinking the best chance of developing/being classified is within that 48hr period now (by Thu afternoon).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#44 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:00 pm

A persistant convective cell has been moving closer to the swirl from the NW all day.
It is nearly over it and seems to be intensifying.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 181515.jpg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#45 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:19 pm

Thanks wxman I value your opinion!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#46 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:38 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located about 250 miles
northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands is producing a large area
of cloudiness and thunderstorms that extends from near Puerto Rico
and the Dominican Republic northeastward over the Atlantic for
several hundred miles. Upper-level winds are forecast to become
more conducive for this system to acquire some tropical
characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to
form within the next few days. The low is forecast to move
northward to north-northwestward on Wednesday and Thursday, before
turning north-northeastward and merging with a cold front over the
western Atlantic by the weekend. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if
necessary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#47 Postby abajan » Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:59 pm

Was 99L the cause of that rather impressive blowup of convection south of Puerto Rico this afternoon?

Image

EDIT: Never mind. I think I've found the main culprit:

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
744 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC. ...

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 mb surface low is centered over the west Caribbean near
16N81W. A surface trough extends from 12N82W, to the low, to
19N81W. Scattered moderate convection is observed with the low and
in its vicinity mainly south of 17N between 73W-88W. A diffluent
flow aloft generated east of an upper-level trough that extends
across the western Atlantic is enhancing scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean east of
70W. This activity is mostly affecting the western portion of
Puerto Rico at this time, where flooded roads are reported and Rio
Guanajibo is out of its bank and is been monitored. Scatterometer
data depicts light to gentle easterly winds west of 70W while
gentle to moderate southeasterly winds prevail east of 70W. Expect
for a similar weather pattern to continue through the next
24 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#48 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:28 pm

TCFA Issued

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#49 Postby MGC » Tue Oct 18, 2016 8:35 pm

Shear is screaming over 99L. Needs to back off for any significant development......MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#50 Postby bahamaswx » Tue Oct 18, 2016 9:38 pm

Nassau is a total mess. This dumped heavy, heavy rain on them following Matthew. Terrible flooding in areas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#51 Postby Happy Pelican » Tue Oct 18, 2016 9:42 pm

With the 4 year Sandy Anniversary next week and so many people still struggling to recover, this thing needs to stay away from the east coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#52 Postby arlwx » Wed Oct 19, 2016 3:59 am

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A non-tropical 1004 mb surface low is centered northeast of the
Turks and Caicos near 24N68W with a surface trough extending from
27N62W through the low center to 19N70W then SW across Hispaniola.
A diffluent wind environment aloft generated by the upper trough
that supports the low and upper ridging over the central Atlantic
support numerous heavy showers and tstms from 20N to 25N between
62W and 65W and from 20N to 23N between 59W and 63W. Scattered
heavy showers and tstms are also across Puerto Rico and adjacent
waters from 14N to 20N between 63W and 69W. Scattered showers are
elsewhere from 14N to 30N between 56W and 70W. Upper-level winds
are forecast to become more conducive for this system to acquire
some tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical
cyclone is likely to form within the next few days. The low is
forecast to move northward to north-northwestward on Wednesday and
Thursday, before turning north-northeastward and merging with a
cold front over the western Atlantic by the weekend. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the
Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands tonight and Wednesday. There is a medium chance of
development over the next 48 hours. Please see the Tropical
Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic extending from 04N to
15N with axis near 32W, moving W at 10 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave continues in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind
shear and CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb show pockets of
dry air in the wave environment coinciding with enhanced Meteosat
imagery. Shallow moisture and divergent middle level wind flow support
scattered showers and isolated tstms from 01N to 15N between 23W
and 44W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic
near 14N17W then along 08N28W to 08N42W. For convection
information see the tropical waves section.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to extend from the NW Atlantic waters SW
across the SE CONUS and in the Gulf. This provides mainly E-SE
gentle to moderate flow basin-wide, except over the E Bay of
Campeche where winds are from the NE. Middle to upper level
ridging and strong dry air subsidence persist across the basin
supporting stable and fair weather conditions. The current wind
regime will persist through Thursday afternoon. NE wind flow then
will dominate across the basin ahead of the next cold front to
enter the NW Gulf waters early Friday morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level trough over the W Atlantic extends SSW across the
NW Caribbean to a base near coastal waters of NE Honduras where a
1009 mb low is observed near 16N81W. A surface trough extends from
the low SW to 13N83W then inland Nicaragua, El Salvador and
southern Guatemala. Scattered showers are within 90 nm off the
coast of Nicaragua associated with this area of low pressure. The
extension of this middle level trough to the upper levels where
the base of the trough lies across Cuba and westerlies over the
remainder basin generate a diffluent wind environment over the NE
Caribbean. This wind regime aloft along with abundant low level
moisture across the region support scattered heavy showers and
isolated tstms N of 13N between 63W and 68W. GOES QPE show rain
accumulations up to 3 inches in this region in the last 6 hours,
with a maximum of 1 inch for W and S regions of Puerto Rico. The
area of low pressure discussed in the special features section
support SE gentle to moderate wind E of 70W and NE flow of the
same magnitude in the NW basin. Showers will continue across
Puerto Rico and adjacent waters through Wednesday night when
showers will shift W to Hispaniola as the area of low pressure in
the SW Atlantic moves NW.

...HISPANIOLA...

An area of low pressure centered NE of the Turks and Caicos
extends SSW across the Island, thus supporting scattered heavy
showers and tstms over the eastern Dominican Republic and
isolated showers elsewhere. Showers are expected to continue
Wednesday and amplify Thursday as the low N of the area moves NW
over SW N Atlantic waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main feature of interest in the basin is an area of low
pressure centered NE of Turks and Caicos, which is generating
scattered heavy showers and tstms between 55W and 70W. There is a
medium chance this area of low pressure intensifies and become a
cyclone. See special features for further details. In the central
Atlantic, with lack of support aloft, a stationary front extending
from 30N37W to 21N48W starts to dissipate. The remainder basin N
of 16N is being influenced by a weak surface ridge. A cold front
will come off the NE Florida Peninsula Friday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#53 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 19, 2016 6:34 am

The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that
was scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon has been
canceled.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#54 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 19, 2016 6:35 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 250 miles
northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Cloudiness and
thunderstorms associated with this system are currently located
well east of the center due to strong upper-level westerly winds.
However, upper-level conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for this system to acquire some tropical characteristics,
and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form within the
next couple of days. The low is forecast to move northward today
and turn north-northwestward on Thursday, before turning
north-northeastward and merging with a cold front over the western
Atlantic by the weekend. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that
was scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon has been
canceled. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the northern
Leeward Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#55 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Oct 19, 2016 8:00 am

Image

A shift uncomfortably closer to New England
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#56 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 19, 2016 1:28 pm

This low won't be going anywhere near the East U.S. Coast. With that very strong cold front pushing off the East Coast on Friday, this system won't be around much longer than the next 48 hrs. I think that it will merge with the front in 48-60hrs (by Friday night), which is why the best development chances are prior to 48hrs, not beyond 48hrs as per the NHC outlook.

Plotting surface obs & visible satellite, I can see an elongated low pressure circulation centered around 25N/70.7W. Pressure is around 1008mb. Max winds about 25 kts north of the low. No convection associated - very strong SW wind shear overhead. NHC says there's an 80% chance that they will name it. I'm thinking that the chances of this low being organized enough to classify as a TD/STD or TS/STS are less than 80%. There will be a low center, for sure - there already is. But will the NHC bother to call name such a short-lived system that poses little threat to anyone?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#57 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:38 pm

thinking the development chances may be half of what NHC says they are
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#58 Postby HenkL » Wed Oct 19, 2016 5:13 pm

NOUS42 KNHC 191352
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 19 OCTOBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z OCTOBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-146

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
A. 20/1800Z
B. NOAA3 01GGA INVEST
C. 20/1530Z
D. 28.2N 72.0W
E. 20/1730Z TO 20/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX OF THIS SYSTEM IF IT
DEVELOPS AT 21/1730Z NEAR 31.0N 71.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSION ON THIS SYSTEM FOR 19/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 19/1120Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#59 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:55 pm

MEH...a spread of models are liking this for a future possible subtropical development.
Image
Image
westerly in the mix and the broad low looks to be close to a PV streamer aloft.

Image

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel ... =en&hh=000
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#60 Postby arlwx » Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:14 am

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
158 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An elongated non-tropical 1005 mb surface low is centered northeast
of the southeastern Bahamas near 25N70W with a surface trough
extending from 29N61W through the low to 19N76W. Scattered
moderate convection and isolated tstms are mainly E of the surface
trough from 20N to 30N between 58W and 71W. Isolated showers and
tstms are within 180 nm W of the surface trough. Although the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized,
environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
the low to acquire some tropical characteristics during the next
day or so, and this system could still become a subtropical or
tropical cyclone before it merges with a cold front over the
western Atlantic late Friday. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and
portions of the northern Leeward Islands through Thursday. Please
see the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

Gale force winds are expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico
Friday night associated with a cold front that will enter the NW
waters of the Gulf early Friday morning. NW to N gale force winds
are forecast for the area S of 25N W of the front with seas to 10
ft. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to
15N with axis near 38W, moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave continues in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind
shear. However, CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb show the
wave is in an abundant moist environment that along with divergent
upper level wind flow support scattered moderate convection from
01N to 15N between 30W and 44W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 17N16W to 09N30W to 08N40W. The ITCZ begins from
that last coordinate and continues to 07N49W to 07N55W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical wave, scattered
moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 20W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging across the eastern CONUS extends SW into the
Gulf, thus providing E-SE gentle to moderate flow basin-wide,
except for the Bay of Campeche where winds are from the N-NE.
Middle to upper level ridging and strong dry air subsidence
persist across the basin supporting stable and fair weather
conditions. The current wind regime will persist through Thursday
afternoon, then NE wind flow will dominate ahead of a cold front
forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters early Friday morning. The
front is expected to reach S Florida Saturday near sunrise. Gale
force winds are expected to develop W of the front S of 25N Friday
night. See special features section for further details.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An elongated area of low pressure in the SW N Atlantic waters
centered northeast of the southeastern Bahamas and upper
divergence generated by the upper trough that support the low and
a ridge over the central Atlantic continue to support scattered
showers across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and adjacent waters.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm off the coast of Central
America from Honduras to northern Panama. The low in the special
features section continue to support gentle to moderate SE wind E
of 70W and NE flow of the same magnitude W of 78W. Showers will
cease for Puerto Rico Friday and will continue across Hispaniola
through the weekend. A center of low pressure will develop in the
central basin today and will persist through Saturday. A cold
front will reach the NW basin Saturday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

An elongated area of low pressure centered northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas and upper divergence continue to support
scattered showers across Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Showers
associated with this low will continue across Hispaniola through
the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main feature of interest in the basin is an area of low
pressure centered northeast of the southeastern Bahamas, which is
generating scattered showers and tstms from 20N to 30N between 58W
and 71W. There is a medium chance this area of low pressure
intensifies and become a cyclone. See special features for further
details. Fresh to near gale force winds are in the SW N Atlantic
waters associated with this low. Please see the High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details. The other feature of interest is a tropical wave in the
central Atlantic. See the tropical waves section for further
details. In the central Atlantic, the remnants of a stationary
front are analyzed as a surface trough extending from 30N36W to
26N44W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm W of the trough axis.
The remainder basin is under the influence of a surface ridge. A
cold front will come off the NE Florida Peninsula Friday night.

For additional information please visit
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