ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#61 Postby Ken711 » Thu Oct 20, 2016 5:58 am

wxman57 wrote:This low won't be going anywhere near the East U.S. Coast. With that very strong cold front pushing off the East Coast on Friday, this system won't be around much longer than the next 48 hrs. I think that it will merge with the front in 48-60hrs (by Friday night), which is why the best development chances are prior to 48hrs, not beyond 48hrs as per the NHC outlook.

Plotting surface obs & visible satellite, I can see an elongated low pressure circulation centered around 25N/70.7W. Pressure is around 1008mb. Max winds about 25 kts north of the low. No convection associated - very strong SW wind shear overhead. NHC says there's an 80% chance that they will name it. I'm thinking that the chances of this low being organized enough to classify as a TD/STD or TS/STS are less than 80%. There will be a low center, for sure - there already is. But will the NHC bother to call name such a short-lived system that poses little threat to anyone?


Great info as always. Thanks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#62 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 20, 2016 7:00 am

Down to 50% / 50% at 2 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 300 miles
east-northeast of the Central Bahamas is moving northwestward
at about 10 mph. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions could become
a little more conducive for the low to acquire some tropical
characteristics during the next day or so, and this system could
still become a subtropical or tropical cyclone before it merges with
a cold front over the western Atlantic late Friday. A NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Brown

Image

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Remains at 50% / 50% at 8 AM

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
northeast of the Central Bahamas is moving northwestward at about
10 mph. This system has become slightly better organized since
yesterday, and it could still become a subtropical or tropical
cyclone before it merges with a cold front over the western Atlantic
Friday night. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the area this afternoon. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Hispaniola
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Pasch

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#63 Postby lrak » Thu Oct 20, 2016 8:55 am

It looks way better than it did yesterday morning, IMO :flag:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#64 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Oct 20, 2016 10:45 am

It looks to be spinning up nicely in the last few frames.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#65 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:31 am

Hmm.
The current 850mb vort is radically different than what COAMPs was forecasting yesterday.
Yesterday, it was forecasted to quickly move north.
In reality, its sitting at 25N 74W and not really moving.
Big thing right now is the 250mb vort putting a lid on it.
Any heavy convection may blow that away.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#66 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:55 am

Plane at operational altitude.

URNT15 KWBC 201652
NOAA3 01GGA INVEST HDOB 09 20161020
164230 2557N 07623W 8279 01714 0095 +151 +110 358013 015 /// /// 03
164300 2557N 07621W 8559 01434 0095 +168 +139 002019 020 019 000 03
164330 2556N 07618W 8713 01280 0094 +179 +140 359019 019 020 000 00
164400 2555N 07616W 8904 01091 0094 +186 +153 002018 019 019 000 00
164430 2555N 07614W 9132 00875 0093 +200 +167 359019 019 020 000 00
164500 2554N 07612W 9320 00699 0093 +211 +181 355020 021 020 000 00
164530 2553N 07610W 9494 00536 0093 +220 +197 351022 023 020 000 00
164600 2553N 07608W 9575 00462 0094 +228 +203 349022 023 021 000 00
164630 2552N 07606W 9575 00462 0092 +229 +205 348022 023 019 000 00
164700 2552N 07604W 9575 00464 0092 +229 +205 347023 023 020 000 00
164730 2551N 07602W 9574 00463 0092 +230 +204 347022 023 020 000 00
164800 2551N 07600W 9576 00461 0092 +230 +206 344023 023 021 000 00
164830 2550N 07558W 9578 00459 0091 +230 +205 342023 024 020 000 00
164900 2549N 07556W 9575 00460 0089 +229 +206 340022 023 020 000 00
164930 2549N 07554W 9577 00458 0088 +229 +207 340022 023 020 000 00
165000 2548N 07552W 9580 00455 0088 +230 +207 340022 023 021 000 00
165030 2548N 07549W 9579 00455 0087 +231 +205 341021 022 019 000 00
165100 2548N 07547W 9578 00454 0085 +231 +204 341021 022 021 000 00
165130 2548N 07545W 9577 00455 0085 +231 +209 342021 022 019 000 00
165200 2548N 07543W 9581 00453 0086 +232 +206 344022 023 018 000 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#67 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:57 am

RECON 1st Pass:
1002.8mb extrap
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#68 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 20, 2016 12:18 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 201712
NOAA3 01GGA INVEST HDOB 11 20161020
170230 2554N 07501W 9583 00437 0073 +226 +190 328026 027 023 000 00
170300 2555N 07459W 9583 00436 0072 +224 +197 329027 027 021 000 00
170330 2556N 07457W 9582 00436 0071 +223 +202 326028 028 022 000 00
170400 2557N 07456W 9583 00434 0069 +225 +206 326027 027 023 000 00
170430 2558N 07454W 9586 00430 0067 +224 +208 324027 027 023 001 00
170500 2559N 07452W 9585 00430 0066 +224 +208 325027 028 023 000 00
170530 2600N 07450W 9586 00428 0065 +225 +209 326027 027 022 000 00
170600 2601N 07449W 9583 00431 0066 +226 +206 327026 027 022 000 00
170630 2602N 07447W 9584 00429 0064 +227 +210 328025 025 023 000 00
170700 2602N 07445W 9585 00428 0063 +226 +218 327024 025 025 000 00
170730 2603N 07443W 9586 00426 0061 +227 +216 329025 025 017 000 00
170800 2603N 07441W 9562 00445 0060 +228 +202 328024 024 020 000 00
170830 2603N 07438W 9560 00447 0059 +229 +202 327025 026 019 000 00
170900 2602N 07436W 9561 00444 0058 +227 +208 325026 027 021 000 00
170930 2602N 07434W 9559 00448 0058 +227 +207 325026 026 019 000 00
171000 2602N 07432W 9560 00446 0057 +225 +214 321024 025 019 000 00
171030 2601N 07430W 9556 00449 0057 +225 +219 320026 027 022 000 00
171100 2601N 07428W 9547 00457 0056 +225 +211 322026 026 019 000 00
171130 2601N 07425W 9561 00443 0056 +228 +203 326021 022 018 000 00
171200 2600N 07423W 9574 00432 0057 +229 +198 332021 023 019 000 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#69 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 20, 2016 12:27 pm

URNT15 KWBC 201722
NOAA3 01GGA INVEST HDOB 12 20161020
171230 2600N 07421W 9574 00431 0056 +226 +207 334020 021 018 000 00
171300 2559N 07419W 9575 00429 0054 +227 +210 328021 021 017 000 00
171330 2559N 07417W 9575 00429 0054 +228 +208 329020 021 019 000 03
171400 2600N 07415W 9574 00432 0055 +228 +211 330019 020 013 000 00
171430 2601N 07413W 9574 00433 0056 +228 +211 328018 018 012 000 03
171500 2600N 07411W 9578 00425 0053 +230 +210 327018 018 011 000 00
171530 2558N 07409W 9575 00427 0051 +232 +203 326017 017 011 000 00
171600 2557N 07408W 9575 00428 0052 +230 +210 324017 018 011 000 00
171630 2556N 07406W 9575 00428 0052 +229 +216 320017 017 012 000 00
171700 2555N 07404W 9575 00429 0052 +230 +214 320017 018 009 001 00
171730 2554N 07402W 9577 00424 0050 +231 +211 317018 019 012 000 03
171800 2554N 07400W 9577 00424 0049 +232 +209 324015 015 006 000 00
171830 2554N 07358W 9577 00423 0049 +231 +209 320013 014 008 001 00
171900 2554N 07356W 9577 00422 0048 +233 +206 315013 014 010 000 00
171930 2554N 07354W 9576 00423 0047 +240 +196 318013 014 009 000 00
172000 2554N 07352W 9578 00421 0046 +240 +192 315011 013 012 001 00
172030 2554N 07350W 9579 00421 0047 +242 +189 305009 010 012 000 00
172100 2554N 07347W 9578 00422 0047 +241 +189 302008 009 007 000 00
172130 2554N 07345W 9576 00423 0047 +240 +190 294006 007 012 001 00
172200 2555N 07343W 9580 00421 0048 +238 +191 282006 006 011 000 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#70 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 20, 2016 12:40 pm

URNT15 KWBC 201732
NOAA3 01GGA INVEST HDOB 13 20161020
172230 2555N 07341W 9579 00422 0050 +236 +186 269006 006 013 000 00
172300 2555N 07339W 9579 00422 0049 +231 +200 238003 004 008 001 00
172330 2555N 07337W 9579 00422 0050 +228 +211 245006 007 009 001 00
172400 2555N 07335W 9582 00420 0051 +230 +200 249007 007 010 000 00
172430 2555N 07333W 9583 00420 0051 +230 +194 254007 008 012 000 00
172500 2555N 07331W 9579 00421 0049 +230 +198 248006 007 009 001 00
172530 2555N 07329W 9579 00421 0049 +236 +188 225005 006 010 000 00
172600 2555N 07327W 9582 00419 0050 +231 +199 217003 004 013 000 00
172630 2555N 07325W 9581 00420 0050 +228 +208 252002 003 014 001 00
172700 2555N 07323W 9580 00421 0051 +229 +205 256002 003 014 000 00
172730 2555N 07321W 9580 00421 0050 +233 +197 251001 002 014 001 00
172800 2555N 07319W 9582 00419 0050 +232 +197 213000 000 008 000 00
172830 2555N 07316W 9580 00420 0050 +232 +197 083001 001 012 000 00
172900 2555N 07314W 9583 00417 0049 +237 +188 210001 002 011 001 00
172930 2555N 07312W 9583 00419 0050 +231 +200 179001 002 010 000 00
173000 2555N 07310W 9582 00419 0050 +229 +208 126001 002 011 001 00
173030 2555N 07308W 9583 00417 0049 +228 +211 107000 002 011 000 00
173100 2555N 07306W 9583 00419 0050 +229 +208 137003 004 009 000 00
173130 2555N 07304W 9582 00419 0050 +231 +202 140005 006 010 001 00
173200 2556N 07302W 9583 00417 0048 +231 +204 145006 006 010 000 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#71 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 20, 2016 12:41 pm

The current llc is well defined and even tho it has lost its convection some new storms are coming back at the center and a lot of new convection on the nw quad. Interesting. Seems better than 50/50 now. I'd give it 80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#72 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 20, 2016 12:46 pm

There are at least two competing centers now. One at 73.5 25.0 and one to the nw. They are rotating around a broader center. Too eatly to tell for sure where it will consolidate.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#73 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 20, 2016 12:56 pm

URNT15 KWBC 201752
NOAA3 01GGA INVEST HDOB 15 20161020
174230 2549N 07232W 9585 00413 0045 +237 +217 169020 021 008 000 00
174300 2548N 07232W 9586 00411 0044 +236 +219 171020 020 015 000 00
174330 2546N 07232W 9585 00412 0044 +239 +205 175022 023 018 000 00
174400 2544N 07232W 9585 00413 0045 +235 +211 180021 022 018 000 03
174430 2543N 07233W 9587 00411 0045 +234 +216 184022 022 016 000 00
174500 2541N 07234W 9586 00412 0046 +235 +209 185024 024 019 000 00
174530 2540N 07235W 9585 00414 0046 +234 +212 189023 023 021 000 00
174600 2539N 07236W 9586 00413 0046 +233 +207 189023 024 021 000 00
174630 2537N 07237W 9586 00412 0046 +232 +207 192023 023 020 000 00
174700 2536N 07238W 9585 00413 0045 +233 +208 187022 023 020 000 00
174730 2534N 07239W 9586 00411 0044 +234 +204 185021 022 017 000 00
174800 2533N 07240W 9586 00412 0045 +233 +206 185021 022 017 000 00
174830 2532N 07241W 9587 00410 0044 +232 +209 182020 021 016 000 00
174900 2530N 07242W 9587 00409 0043 +232 +213 178020 022 013 000 00
174930 2529N 07243W 9586 00409 0043 +232 +214 179022 023 015 000 00
175000 2527N 07244W 9586 00408 0041 +232 +216 178023 024 019 000 00
175030 2526N 07245W 9587 00406 0039 +233 +211 181024 025 021 001 00
175100 2524N 07246W 9588 00403 0037 +235 +198 181023 023 023 000 00
175130 2523N 07246W 9589 00402 0037 +230 +216 191022 023 020 001 00
175200 2521N 07247W 9584 00408 0038 +228 +217 213022 026 030 000 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#74 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 20, 2016 1:00 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
northeast of the Central Bahamas is moving slowly and erratically,
but is expected to begin moving northward by tonight. Although
visible satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that the
low-level circulation has become a little better defined since
yesterday, preliminary reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the system does not have a well-defined center. In
addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is limited
and not well organized. This system could still become a
subtropical or tropical cyclone before it merges with a cold front
over the western Atlantic, well offshore of the United States east
coast Friday night. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides are
likely over portions of Hispaniola for the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#75 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 20, 2016 1:33 pm

URNT12 KWBC 201822
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL992016
A. 20/18:07:08Z
B. 25 deg 28 min N
073 deg 02 min W
C. 1500 ft 711 m
D. 30 kt
E. 158 deg 13 nm
F. 244 deg 38 kt
G. 158 deg 13 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 21 C / 462 m
J. 23 C / 489 m
K. 20 C / 27 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 1
O. .01 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 01GGA INVEST OB 04
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
MAX FL WIND 38 KT 158 / 13 NM 18:03:38Z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#76 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:21 pm

URNT12 KWBC 202004
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL992016
A. 20/19:46:27Z
B. 26 deg 41 min N
074 deg 17 min W
C. 1500 ft 704 m
D. 14 kt
E. 058 deg 32 nm
F. 155 deg 13 kt
G. 068 deg 32 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 24 C / 460 m
J. 23 C / 458 m
K. 21 C / 27 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 1
O. .01 / 10 nm
P. NOAA3 01GGA INVEST OB 08
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
MAX FL WIND 38 KT 158 / 13 NM 18:03:38Z
M
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#77 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:31 pm

After watching Mathew, I highly doubt many people have been interested in even following this pathetic little invest lol...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#78 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:37 pm

URNT12 KWBC 202131
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL992016
A. 20/20:48:59Z
B. 26 deg 38 min N
074 deg 15 min W
C. NA
D. 14 kt
E. 088 deg 73 nm
F. 154 deg 11 kt
G. 087 deg 33 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 23 C / 448 m
J. 23 C / 448 m
K. 21 C / 27 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / NA
O. .01 / 10 nm
P. NOAA3 01GGA INVEST OB 12
SLP EXTRAP FROM
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 26 KT 250 / 53 NM 21:07:00Z
MAX FL WIND 38 KT 158 / 13 NM 18:03:38Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 31 KT 256 / 70 NM 21:12:47Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 086 / 25 NM FROM FL CNTR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#79 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:39 pm

Looks like a new center is forming and a considerable amount of convection is popping over it. I don't know why the chances are at 50% when the shear is very low there, SSTs are very high and mid-level RH is quite good.

And though it doesn't have much time, it does have about 24 hours before it reaches the front. That's more than enough time to become a TS considering it's appearance right now. We'll see...


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#80 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Oct 20, 2016 5:26 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:After watching Mathew, I highly doubt many people have been interested in even following this pathetic little invest lol...

They already got their monster cat 5 and major threat to the U.S a select few have been itching for on here for so many years lol.
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