EPAC: SEYMOUR - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: SEYMOUR - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 21, 2016 3:40 pm

EP, 91, 2016102118, , BEST, 0, 110N, 970W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#2 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 21, 2016 3:56 pm

This may be the one to form.

Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a broad
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
generally conducive for development of this disturbance over the
next few days, and a tropical depression will likely form early next
week while the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#3 Postby zeehag » Fri Oct 21, 2016 4:49 pm

91 e has my attention.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#4 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 21, 2016 6:56 pm

Certainly getting there.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development of this disturbance over the next
few days, and a tropical depression will likely form early next week
while the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#5 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 22, 2016 6:57 am

Up to 70% already!

Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located about 350 miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for development of this low during the next few days,
and a tropical depression will likely form by early next week while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 22, 2016 9:46 am

0z ECMWF doesn't do much with this.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#7 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 22, 2016 7:02 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 350 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, have
not changed much in organization today. Environmental conditions
are expected to gradually become more conducive during the next day
or two, and a tropical depression is likely to form before Tuesday
while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#8 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 22, 2016 7:03 pm

I wonder if MJO will have anything to do with how much this can strengthen?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 22, 2016 8:13 pm

Both the GFS and ECMWF do very little with this. Nor am I seeing the low level structure I'd like to see with an invest like this.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#10 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 22, 2016 9:07 pm

Wow! Many models are being bullish with this as of 0z Oct 23. Impressive.

Image
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-E - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 23, 2016 5:41 am

We have Tropical Depression Twenty-E!! Forecast to peak as a minimal hurricane.

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230846
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Conventional and microwave satellite data indicate that deep
convection associated with the low pressure area located south of
Mexico has become much better organized overnight. A fortuitous
0526 UTC GPM microwave overpass revealed a significant increase in
banding and was also very helpful in determining the center
location. Based on these data, and an earlier partial ASCAT pass
which indicated that the circulation had become sufficiently well
defined, advisories are being initiated on the twentieth tropical
depression of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The
initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with
Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB.

The depression is forecast to move over SSTs of 29-30 degrees
Celsius and remain in an area of vertical shear of around 10 kt or
less during the next 2 to 3 days, which should allow for
steady strengthening. Despite these seemingly favorable
conditions, the global and regional hurricane models show much less
strengthening than the statistical SHIPS/LGEM guidance which show a
peak intensity of around 70-75 kt in about 3 days. Given the
expected favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is above
the dynamical guidance and model consensus, but is lower than the
SHIPS and LGEM. Late in the forecast period, cooler SSTs and
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to weaken
the cyclone.

Since the depression is still in the formative stage, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/14. A strong mid- to upper-
level ridge that is forecast to shift westward over the Baja
California peninsula should steer the cyclone west-northwestward
during the next several days. By day 4, the cyclone is forecast
to turn northwestward when it approaches the western periphery of
the ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement on this overall
scenario, but there are some differences in the forward speed of the
cyclone and exactly when the northwestward turn will materialize.
The NHC forecast track is slightly faster than the model consensus
and is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.1N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 13.8N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.7N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.4N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 17.0N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 18.8N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-E - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 23, 2016 9:49 am

Slightly higher peak forecast. Shear mentioned as the possible culprit of the elongated appearance but it's forecast to abate soon.

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 231432
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Although the depression is producing a considerable amount of deep
convection, the cloud pattern is highly stretched from
north-northeast to south-southwest. Microwave images from earlier
this morning indicate that the low-level structure of the system is
well organized despite the elongated appearance in geostationary
satellite images. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this
advisory.

A band of strong upper-level south-southwesterly winds lies just to
the north of the cyclone, and they could be contributing to its
aforementioned appearance in satellite images. The global models
are in agreement in showing the upper-level wind environment
becoming more favorable for strengthening during the next few days.
The expected low wind shear combined with warm water and high
humidity values suggest that steady strengthening is likely
during the next 72 hours. After that time, a notable increase in
southwesterly shear and cooler waters should end the strengthening
trend and cause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly higher peak intensity than the previous one, but it is
lower than the SHIPS and LGEM models.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. A continued
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next few days while the cyclone moves along the
southwestern periphery of a high pressure system located over
Mexico. By the end of the forecast period, a deep-layer low is
forecast to erode the ridge and should cause the cyclone to slow
down even more and turn northwestward. The NHC track forecast is
very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN for the next 4 days,
but lies to the left of that aid at 120 h in favor of the ECMWF
model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 13.5N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.9N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.6N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.1N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 17.3N 117.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-E - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 23, 2016 11:56 am

Eye? :lol:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2016 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 13:32:59 N Lon : 105:09:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1002.8mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.4 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -22.0C Cloud Region Temp : -64.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-E - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby zeehag » Sun Oct 23, 2016 12:05 pm

still crossing fingers as i learned with patricia all things are possible.. well outside cone means nothing at all with a funky tormenta and a magnet in pocket...
coordinates of 106 ° 28'34 " west longitude and 23 ° 15'25"(marina mazatlan). might be some nice sunset pix here, hopefully
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-E - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 23, 2016 1:54 pm

23/1745 UTC 13.6N 105.2W T2.5/2.5 20E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-E - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 23, 2016 1:54 pm

EP, 20, 2016102318, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1053W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTY, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 037,
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2016 3:52 pm

TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

The cyclone has become better organized during the last several
hours. Visible satellite images suggest that an inner core is
forming, with a few curved bands surrounding this central
convection. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are
2.5/35 kt, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin are slightly higher. In addition, an ASCAT pass around
1600 UTC showed maximum winds in the 30 to 35 kt range. Based on
these data, the initial wind speed is increased to 35 kt.

The global models are in agreement that Seymour should remain in
a favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next few days.
These light upper-level winds, combined with very warm water and
high mid-level moisture values should allow Seymour to steadily, or
perhaps rapidly, strengthen during the next 72 hours. Beyond that
time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear, cooler waters,
and a decrease in moisture should end the strengthening trend and
induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the
previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A
mid-level ridge over Mexico should continue to steer Seymour
west-northwestward at a slightly slower pace during the next few
days. After that time, the ridge is likely to erode as a deep-
layer low pressure moves eastward toward California. This pattern
change will likely cause Seymour to turn northwestward and then
northward in 4 to 5 days. The models have shifted considerably to
the right at the longer range points, and the new NHC track forecast
has been adjusted in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 13.9N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 14.5N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 15.2N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 20.8N 121.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 23.1N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby CaliforniaResident » Sun Oct 23, 2016 4:03 pm

Hoping his remnants will merge with a cold low pressure system that is due to hit us next Thursday/Friday (he'd have to move a bit faster than the projections all for). Looks like the track is just right but the timing needs to spend up a little.
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:52 pm

CaliforniaResident wrote:Hoping his remnants will merge with a cold low pressure system that is due to hit us next Thursday/Friday (he'd have to move a bit faster than the projections all for). Looks like the track is just right but the timing needs to spend up a little.


Mid to low level moisture from the storm will make it up your way as the storm will decouple in 3-4 days.
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:53 pm

EP, 20, 201610240000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1440N, 10650W, , 2, 55, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JV, VIM, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=3.5 BO CBND MET=3.0 PT=3.5 FTBO DT
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