EPAC: SEYMOUR - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:53 pm

EP, 20, 2016102400, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1065W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 0, 40, 1010, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SEYMOUR, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 037
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2693
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 23, 2016 9:46 pm

Forecast peak has been significantly increased. Rapid intensification now expected as well. IMO chances of a major are not very far off at all.

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 240240
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
900 PM MDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Seymour's convective pattern has continued to improve since the
previous advisory, with the development of a mid-level eye feature
noted in 23/2250Z and 24/0107Z SSMI/S microwave images. Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt,
respectively, and T3.6/57 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial
intensity is set on the low side of these estimates at 45 kt for
this advisory, which could be conservative.

The initial motion estimate is 290/13 kt. For the next 72 h, the
global models remain in excellent agreement on Seymour moving
west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer
ridge located over Mexico. After that, the cyclone is expected to
turn northward around the western portion of the ridge and ahead of
a shortwave trough forecast to approach Seymour from the northwest
by late Wednesday. The official forecast track lies basically down
the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the multi-model
consensus TVCN.

The global and regional models indicate environmental conditions are
forecast to be quite favorable for additional strengthening to occur
during the next 3 days. In fact, due to a combination of the
vertical shear being low at around 5 kt, mid-level humidity values
being near 70 percent, sea-surface temperatures expected to be at
least 29 deg C, and the recent development of a mid-level eye, a
period of rapid intensification is forecast to occur for the next
24 hours. This trend is supported by the SHIPS and LGEM statistical
intensity models, and also by the HWRF model and the new NOAA
Corrected Consensus Model, HCCA, which makes Seymour a major
hurricane by 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of the aforementioned
shortwave trough and SSTs less than 25 deg C and are expected to
induce rapid weakening. The new intensity forecast lies close to a
blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which is significantly higher
than the previous advisory, but remains well below the peak
intensity forecast of 110 kt by HCCA and the 112-kt forecast from
the HWRF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 14.4N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 14.9N 109.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 15.6N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 16.1N 114.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 16.7N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 18.7N 120.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 22.0N 120.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:31 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:33 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:34 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 OCT 2016 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 14:28:30 N Lon : 107:21:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 989.4mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.0 4.2

Center Temp : -62.2C Cloud Region Temp : -64.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2693
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 24, 2016 4:46 am

Up to 55 knots and now forecast to become a major hurricane!

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 240853
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
300 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016

Seymour continues to strengthen this morning. Satellite data
indicate that the banding features have continued to improve
and a small central dense overcast feature has developed and
become more symmetric. Although earlier microwave imagery revealed
a mid-level eye feature, there has been no recent microwave data to
diagnose the structure of the inner core. Subjective and objective
Dvorak intensity estimates have increased to 55 and 65 kt,
respectively, and as a result the initial intensity has been
raised to 55 kt.

Seymour continues to move west-northwestward at about 13 kt.
There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning from
the previous advisory. Seymour should continue moving
west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge that
extends westward from Mexico. In a couple of days, the cyclone
will approach the western portion of the ridge and Seymour should
respond by turning northwestward. After 72 hours, an approaching
shortwave trough should steer Seymour northward, then northeastward.
The model guidance is in good agreement through the first 3 days,
but after that time there is more spread in the track models this
cycle. The ECMWF and UKMET models have trended faster and take
Seymour much farther north at 96 h and 120 h than the remainder of
the guidance. Since Seymour is expected to rapidly weaken and
become an increasingly shallow system, the NHC forecast leans toward
the slower and more southern solutions late in the forecast period.

Seymour is forecast to traverse very warm water and remain within
an environment of low vertical wind shear and high mid-level
moisture during the next day or two. These conditions should allow
the cyclone to quickly strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours and
like the previous advisory, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for
rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours. In fact, the SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index gives a 78 percent chance of a 30 kt or
more increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours. The updated
NHC intensity forecast now shows a peak intensity of 100 kt in 48
hours, which is slightly below the LGEM, FSSE, and NOAA corrected
consensus (HCCA) models. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly
shear and cooler SSTs are expected to cause a rapid spin down of the
tropical cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 14.9N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.4N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 16.0N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 17.0N 117.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 19.6N 121.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 23.0N 121.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 24.5N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4120
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 24, 2016 7:53 am

AMSR2 shows tight curved banding with an eyewall in the process of closing off.

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 24, 2016 7:56 am

24/1200 UTC 15.0N 108.8W T3.5/3.5 SEYMOUR -- East Pacific
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 24, 2016 7:56 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 OCT 2016 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 15:00:50 N Lon : 109:04:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 982.4mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 4.3

Center Temp : -77.0C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:14 am

Likely near hurricane intensity right now.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:33 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SEYMOUR EP202016 10/24/16 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 74 78 81 89 89 85 75 62 46 32 19
V (KT) LAND 60 67 74 78 81 89 89 85 75 62 46 32 19
V (KT) LGEM 60 68 75 81 86 92 90 78 63 47 34 24 18
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 3 4 8 12 16 25 32 42 39 44
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 4 3 1 0 5 7 11 3 4 0
SHEAR DIR 29 85 169 214 248 243 242 221 237 231 252 270 285
SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.4 27.3 25.9 24.7 23.6 22.7 22.3 22.3
POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 157 154 150 149 137 122 110 98 87 82 81
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -53.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 -55.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 59 62 65 63 60 55 52 45 35 31
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 13 13 18 19 19 17 15 10 7 4
850 MB ENV VOR -28 -22 -15 -13 -12 -3 -11 -27 -65 -26 -43 -32 -48
200 MB DIV 83 89 103 70 36 36 64 83 66 42 -4 -36 -28
700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -6 -5 -2 1 6 9 6 3 6 4
LAND (KM) 653 738 824 839 875 990 1076 1092 1036 903 753 649 595
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.4 18.7 20.5 22.2 23.7 24.4 24.5
LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.5 111.9 113.2 114.4 116.7 119.0 120.6 121.4 121.5 121.0 120.3 119.7
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 9 9 8 6 4 3
HEAT CONTENT 19 16 18 19 19 20 16 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 28.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -8. -13. -19.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 7. 9. 10. 7. 4. -3. -6. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 18. 21. 29. 29. 25. 15. 2. -14. -28. -41.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.0 109.1

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 10.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.55 7.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.24 3.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.80 11.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 11.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 11.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.60 4.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 294.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.49 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.33 -0.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 5.6 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 14.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 68% is 9.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 33.7% 71.8% 61.0% 59.1% 58.8% 67.8% 31.1%
Logistic: 38.0% 68.6% 53.7% 43.1% 32.0% 36.5% 15.4%
Bayesian: 41.5% 31.0% 19.7% 9.3% 5.7% 10.9% 0.8%
Consensus: 37.8% 57.1% 44.8% 37.2% 32.2% 38.4% 15.8%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114508
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#32 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:48 am

HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
900 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016

Seymour's cloud pattern continues to increase in organization.
The cyclone's small central dense overcast has become circular and
increasingly symmetric since the last advisory, with plenty of
cold-topped deep convection, particularly near the center. Dvorak
satellite classifications were T3.5/55 kt and T4.0/65 kt at 1200
UTC, while UW-CIMSS ADT values were around T4.5. Since that time,
the cloud pattern has continued to exhibit greater organization.
Thus, the initial intensity is raised to 65 kt, toward the higher
end of the subjective estimates.

For the next 36 hours or so, Seymour should be embedded in a nearly
ideal environment for intensification, characterized by low vertical
wind shear, warm waters, strong upper-level divergence and a
sufficiently moist atmosphere. SHIPS model output continues to
indicate the likelihood of rapid intensification during the next
24 hours, and so does the official forecast. Around 48 hours,
southwesterly shear associated with a vigorous trough northwest of
Seymour should begin to increase and induce weakening. The shear
should become prohibitively high in 3 to 4 days and result in rapid
weakening, and then a decoupling of the cyclone toward the end of
the forecast period. Remnant low status is predicted in 5 days, but
it very likely could be sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and is slightly above the
multi-model consensus, close to the FSU Superensemble and the NOAA
corrected consensus model, HCCA.

The initial motion is 290/13. Seymour is being steered west-
northwestward on the south side of deep-layer ridge near the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. When the cyclone
reaches the western edge of this ridge in about 2 days, it should
encounter the flow associated with the deep-layer trough upstream
of Seymour. This should result in a decrease in forward speed while
the cyclone's heading turns northwestward and then sharply
northward. Once a completely shallow system, Seymour or its
remnants should turn north-northeast and lose its identity well west
of the Baja California peninsula. The new track forecast has been
adjusted westward in response to a shift of the guidance in that
direction, but not as far left as the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 15.2N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.8N 111.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 16.2N 114.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 16.6N 116.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.4N 119.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 20.5N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 23.9N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 26.2N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114508
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#33 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:24 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4210
Age: 29
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#34 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:28 am

Now forecasted to be a major :O
I didn't see that coming.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114508
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#35 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:25 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#36 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:52 pm

Eye already clearing.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114508
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#37 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2016 2:15 pm

RI underway.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 24, 2016 3:23 pm

24/1800 UTC 15.2N 110.7W T4.5/4.5 SEYMOUR -- East Pacific
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114508
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#39 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2016 3:43 pm

Cat 2.

HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
300 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016

Seymour is rapidly intensifying. A pinhole eye has formed within a
small, nearly symmetric, central dense overcast (CDO) during the
last several hours. In addition, a long curved band coils inward
toward the center with a dry slot between it and the CDO. Dvorak
classifications are T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest
UW-CIMSS ADT value is T4.7/82 kt. A blend of these is used to raise
the initial intensity estimate to 85 kt.

Seymour has another 24 hours to strengthen under nearly ideal
environmental conditions, consisting of low vertical wind shear,
warm waters, strong upper-level divergence, and a sufficiently moist
atmosphere. By 36 to 48 hours, an uptick in the southwesterly
vertical shear associated with a mid- to upper-tropospheric trough
approaching Seymour from the northwest should induce a weakening
trend. With the waters cooling substantially and the shear becoming
prohibitively high after that time, rapid weakening is likely.
Seymour is now forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by 96
hours, if not perhaps sooner, as depicted in global model guidance.
The new intensity forecast is generally above the the guidance
through 48 hours, closest to the FSU Superensemble and NOAA
Corrected Consensus HCCA model output, and just above the multi-
model consensus after that time.

The initial motion estimate is 285/14 kt. Seymour should maintain a
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed for
the next 36 to 48 hours as it nears the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge located to the south of Baja California. The trough
upstream of Seymour should erode the ridge further in about 48 hours
and cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and northward while it
decelerates. The guidance has again shifted toward the left during
the next few days, and the official forecast is adjusted in that
direction but lies on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The
model guidance is now much slower after that time, around the time
Seymour decouples and becomes a remnant low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 15.3N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 15.6N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 16.0N 115.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 16.7N 118.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 17.6N 120.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 20.7N 122.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 22.3N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1800Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2693
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#40 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 24, 2016 3:51 pm

Wow! Didn't expect that jump! :eek:

On a side note it looks like the eye is filling in slightly. Structure also looks somewhat more ragged than a couple hours ago.

Image
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests