EPAC: SEYMOUR - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#41 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Oct 24, 2016 4:14 pm

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What in the world is that to the NW of Seymour, looks like a separate tropical system!!!!!!?
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#42 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 24, 2016 6:38 pm

:uarrow: Eye remains obscured since a few hours ago.
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#43 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 24, 2016 8:17 pm

EP, 20, 2016102500, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1120W, 85, 980, HU, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1010, 120, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SEYMOUR, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 037,
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#44 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:36 pm

HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
900 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016

After rapidly intensifying during the past 30 hours, the rate of
strengthening has slowed for the time being. The eye of Seymour has
become cloud-filled on geostationary satellite images and microwave
data indicate that the northwestern portion of the eyewall has
eroded some. The observed arrested development this evening is
likely due to the entrainment of dry air. However, there are
already some signs that the hurricane is recovering from these
effects with central convection increasing and becoming more
circular during the past couple of hours. The initial intensity is
set at 90 kt, slightly above the Dvorak estimates at 0000 UTC due to
the improvement in organization of the system since that time.

Since Seymour is expected to remain in low wind shear conditions,
over warm water, and in an environment of good upper-level
divergence during the next 24 hours, significant strengthening is
anticipated. After that time, however, an increase in southwesterly
shear should end the strengthening process. Seymour is forecast to
rapidly weaken when it moves over cooler water and into hostile
atmospheric conditions beginning in about 2 days. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little higher than the multi-model consensus, and is
in best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM models.

Seymour is moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 14 kt. The hurricane
is expected to remain on the southwestern side of a mid-level high
pressure system during the next 36 to 48 hours, which should allow
Seymour to maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion. After
that time, a large deep-layer low pressure system is expected to
move eastward toward California and erode the ridge. This pattern
change should cause Seymour to turn northwestward and then northward
in 3 to 4 days. The track models are in relatively good agreement,
and only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast track.

A pair of ASCAT passes from several hours ago indicate that the wind
field of Seymour is very compact, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending no more than 60 n mi from the center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 15.5N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.9N 114.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 16.4N 117.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 17.2N 119.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 18.4N 121.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 21.5N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#45 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:43 pm

Good call by the NHC. It's starting to look more symmetrical again. Should resume strengthening at a quick pace once it can keep out the dry air.
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#46 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:34 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Good call by the NHC. It's starting to look more symmetrical again. Should resume strengthening at a quick pace once it can keep out the dry air.

Agreed.

Structure looks great. Shear should remain low in the short term and dry air is not an issue.

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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#47 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:11 am

Major hurricane!

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 250852
TCDEP5

HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
300 AM MDT TUE OCT 25 2016

The small eye of Seymour has reappeared in infrared satellite
imagery overnight, and has warmed and become more distinct within
the past hour or so. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are
T5.5 (102 kt) from TAFB and T5.0 (90 kt) from SAB. Objective Dvorak
intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS are somewhat lower, likely due to
the technique having difficulty in resolving the small eye. Based
on the very recent warming of the eye, the initial intensity is set
to 100 kt.

Seymour is expected to remain within an area of low wind shear and
over SSTs of around 28C during the next 24 hours. These conditions
favor additional intensification and the NHC wind speed forecast
calls for a peak intensity at category 4 strength later today.
After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters
should begin the weakening process. Seymour is predicted to weaken
very rapidly between days 2 and 3 when it encounters very strong
southwesterly shear and moves over SSTs below 25C. The NHC
intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance through
24 hours, but is close to the LGEM and NOAA corrected consensus
models after that time.

The hurricane is moving westward or 280/13 kt. A mid- to
upper-level ridge extending westward from Mexico is expected to
steer Seymour westward to west-northwestward for another 24 to 36
hours. After that time, a deep-layer trough is forecast to erode
the western portion of the ridge which should cause Seymour to turn
northwestward, then northward later in the period. The track
guidance remains in good agreement and the new NHC track forecast
is essentially an update of the previous advisory.

Recent ASCAT data shows that Seymour remains a small tropical
cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending only about
60 n mi from the center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 15.6N 113.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 16.0N 115.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 16.6N 118.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 17.5N 120.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 18.8N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 21.2N 122.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#48 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:45 am

Oh my!! :D :D :D

I knew he could do it!! Sixth major so far in this impressive season. :ggreen:
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#49 Postby ThetaE » Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:55 am

The Raw T-Number is up to 6.8 :eek:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt20E.html

Of course I don't buy that, but Seymour certainly does have an impressive look on satellite. All it's really missing is a clear eye.
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#50 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:35 am

Not bad.

Image
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#51 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:45 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 OCT 2016 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 15:36:53 N Lon : 114:50:38 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 963.3mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.7 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -30.6C Cloud Region Temp : -71.3C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#52 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:47 am

HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016

Microwave satellite imagery suggests that Seymour underwent an
eyewall replacement during the night, with an AMSR-2 overpass at
0917 UTC showing a larger eye than seen on a Windsat overpass at
0120 UTC. The hurricane is looking better organized than 6 hours
ago in infrared satellite imagery, with the eye gradually becoming
more apparent and greater symmetry in the cold cloud tops around the
eye. The latest satellite intensity estimates include 115 kt from
TAFB, 102, kt from SAB, and 108 kt from the CIMSS satellite
consensus. Based on these and current trends, the initial intensity
is increased to 110 kt.

Seymour is expected to remain within an area of low wind shear and
over SSTs of around 28C during the next 24 hours. These conditions
favor additional intensification and the NHC wind speed forecast
calls for a peak intensity at category 4 strength later today or
early tonight. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and
cooler waters should cause steady to rapid weakening. The majority
of the guidance shows Seymour weakening below hurricane strength in
less than 72 hours, degenerating to a remnant low by 96 hours, and
dissipating completely by 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is
an update of the previous forecast and continues to lie near the
upper end of the intensity guidance.

The initial motion is 275/12. A mid- to upper-level ridge extending
westward from Mexico is expected to steer Seymour westward to
west-northwestward for another 24 hours or so. Subsequently, a
deep-layer trough over the northeastern Pacific is expected to cause
a break in the ridge, with Seymour turning northwestward and
northward into the break. Most of the track guidance suggests the
forward motion should slow between 72-96 hours as Seymour shears
apart, and this is reflected in the track forecast. The new
forecast track is a little to the south of the previous track during
the first 24 hours, and then is similar to the previous track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 15.6N 115.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.0N 117.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.8N 119.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 19.5N 122.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#53 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:33 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 OCT 2016 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 15:40:05 N Lon : 115:09:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 961.2mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -36.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#54 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 25, 2016 1:49 pm

Image

Gorgeous.
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 2:03 pm

EP, 20, 2016102518, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1158W, 115, 956, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 60, 1012, 140, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SEYMOUR, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 037,
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#56 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 2:04 pm

Code: Select all

EP, 20, 201610251800,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1570N, 11590W,      , 1, 115, 2,     ,  ,     ,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,   SAB,  JW,  VIM, 1, 6060 /////,      ,   , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE  MET=5.5 PT=6.0 FTBO DT
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#57 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 2:05 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 OCT 2016 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 15:42:58 N Lon : 115:39:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 950.4mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +5.9C Cloud Region Temp : -71.9C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#58 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 2:07 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SEYMOUR EP202016 10/25/16 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 120 120 118 112 98 78 57 40 27 17 DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 115 120 120 118 112 98 78 57 40 27 17 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 115 118 116 110 103 83 64 46 33 24 19 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 0 4 8 8 10 17 28 37 35 38 35 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 0 0 9 12 6 1 1 1 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 78 175 166 184 206 219 218 239 252 251 253 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.5 26.8 25.8 25.0 24.3 24.0 23.8 23.8 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 146 139 132 121 111 103 98 96 96 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 62 65 64 63 61 57 53 45 38 34 32 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 22 21 21 19 15 12 9 7 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -8 -8 -14 -16 -40 -25 4 -17 -14 -30 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 84 90 71 50 69 75 18 -16 -16 -24 1 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -2 1 1 4 8 4 5 10 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1014 1072 1141 1157 1184 1198 1159 1084 1016 1000 1023 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.2 18.6 20.1 21.1 21.6 21.8 21.9 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 115.8 117.1 118.3 119.3 120.3 121.8 122.7 122.8 122.4 122.4 122.8 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 6 4 2 1 2 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 25 30 35 28 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -18. -30. -41. -50. -57. -61. -62. -63.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. -17.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -7. -12. -15. -18. -17. -16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. 3. -3. -17. -37. -58. -75. -88. -98.-101.-105.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.6 115.8

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.69 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.72 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.57 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 597.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.06 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.70 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 9.8% 8.6% 4.5% 3.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian: 21.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 17.5% 3.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 18 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#59 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 25, 2016 2:54 pm

Very impressive storm!!! T numbers are quite high at this point. :eek:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 OCT 2016 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 15:45:31 N Lon : 115:52:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 944.1mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -8.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 57km
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.7 degrees
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#60 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 2:59 pm

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