EPAC: SEYMOUR - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#61 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2016 3:38 pm

Now Cat 4.

HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016

Seymour has continued to intensify since the last advisory, with
the 15 n mi wide eye continuing to become better defined inside the
central dense overcast. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB,
SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus are all 115 kt, so that is
the initial intensity for this advisory. The hurricane currently
has good cirrus outflow in all directions except to the south.

Seymour is expected to remain within an area of low wind shear and
over SSTs of around 28C for the next 12-18 hours, and thus some
additional strengthening is possible. After 18 hours, increasing
southwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause steady to rapid
weakening. The majority of the guidance continues to show Seymour
weakening below hurricane strength in less than 72 hours,
degenerating to a remnant low by 96 hours, and dissipating
completely by 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is an update
of the previous forecast and again lies near the upper end of the
intensity guidance.

The initial motion is still 275/12. A mid- to upper-level ridge
extending westward from Mexico is expected to steer Seymour westward
to west-northwestward for another 12-24 hours. Subsequently, a
deep-layer trough over the northeastern Pacific is expected to cause
a break in the ridge, with Seymour turning northwestward and
northward into the break. Most of the track guidance suggests the
forward motion should slow after 48 hours as Seymour shears apart,
and it now suggests that the hurricane should turn more westward
before dissipation as it is steered by low-level easterly flow. The
new forecast track is similar to the previous track for the first 72
hours, then it is shifted a little westward at the 96 hour point.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 15.7N 116.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.2N 118.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 17.2N 120.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 18.5N 121.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 19.9N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 21.5N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#62 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:05 pm

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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:05 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 OCT 2016 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 15:42:44 N Lon : 116:15:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 942.0mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +9.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#64 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:06 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#65 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:15 pm

Making a run at Category 5 status.


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 OCT 2016 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 15:43:50 N Lon : 116:21:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 939.7mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.8 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +8.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#66 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:24 pm

Image

I can't tell if this is a T7.0 or not...
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#67 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:27 pm

EP, 20, 201610260000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1590N, 11720W, , 1, 127, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, AS, VIM, 1, 6565 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.5 BO EYE MET=6.0 PT=6.5 FTBO DT


I think this is the correct call actually.
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#68 Postby Cunxi Huang » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:42 pm

DVEP20 HCXA 260020

A. CATEGORY 4 MAJOR HURRICANE 20E (SEYMOUR)

B. 26/0000Z

C. 15.96N

D. 117.13W

E. ONE/GOES-15

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE RING AND
EMBEDDED IN BLACK YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. MET IS SET TO 6.0 BASED ON RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT AND PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/2150Z 15.83N 116.78W SSMI

J. INTENSITY: 130KT/938HPA


...CHARLIE
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#69 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:45 pm

:uarrow: That looks like a TAFB fix, with J being the TAFB internal AODT.
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#70 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:47 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 OCT 2016 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 15:53:11 N Lon : 117:09:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 937.3mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +10.2C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#71 Postby Cunxi Huang » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:56 pm

EP, 20, 2016102600, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1171W, 130, 943, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 60, 1012, 140, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SEYMOUR, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 037,
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#72 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:01 pm

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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#73 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:14 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 OCT 2016 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 15:54:44 N Lon : 117:09:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 937.3mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +7.4C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

Scene Type : EYE


Eye temperature fluctuating
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#74 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:18 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#75 Postby ThetaE » Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:24 pm

Big burst of convection in the SW quadrant, per the latest satellite image. I find this interesting because it seemed to me that the SW eyewall was the weakest/thinnest part. We'll see if this cooling trend continues or not. This storm poses no threat to land, so it's really cool to see it gain strength and view it only from a scientific perspective.
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#76 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:32 pm

:uarrow:
Certainly. I would say it's a borderline Cat.5 already.

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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#77 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:31 pm

Eye temp seems to be stable now, but CDO needs to become more symmetrical.
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#78 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:53 pm

150 mph

HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016

Seymour has continued to rapidly intensify since the last advisory.
The eye is about 10-15 nmi wide in infrared satellite imagery, but
is less than 10 nmi wide in a recent 0005Z SSMI/S microwave image,
indicating that the eye diameter has contracted since the previous
advisory. The initial intensity is increased to 130 kt for this
advisory based on satellite intensity estimates of T6.5/127 kt from
both TAFB and SAB, and a T6.7/132 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion is now 285/13 kt. The global and regional models
remain in excellent agreement on Seymour moving steadily
west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
ridge for the next 24 hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest
in 36 hours as a strong shortwave trough significantly erodes the
western portion of the ridge. By 48 hours, Seymour is expected to
slow down appreciably and turn north-northwestward as the cyclone
rapidly weakens and becomes more vertically shallow. After that
time, the shallow post-tropical low is forecast to turn back toward
the west-northwest under the influence of the low-level trade wind
flow. The official forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory, and lies close to blend of the TVCX and HCCA consensus
models.

Some additional slight strengthening is possible during the next
6-12 hours due to the small eye, low shear conditions, and warm
SSTs. After that time, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear,
cooler waters, including significant cold upwelling by 24 hours and
beyond, should cause steady to rapid weakening. Seymour is expected
to drop below hurricane status shortly after 48 hours, degenerate
into a post-tropical low by 72 hours, and dissipate by 120 hours.
The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and
is close to the IVCN intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 16.1N 117.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 16.7N 119.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 17.9N 121.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 19.2N 122.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 20.2N 122.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 21.1N 122.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 30/0000Z 21.7N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#79 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 25, 2016 10:07 pm

What the heck?!!! 130 knots?!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

This just became the strongest storm of the season!!! :double:

Somehow I just had that feeling it'd be a strong storm. But I didn't think it would almost be a category 5!

Let's see what happens in the next few hours. If this becomes a category 5, I think I might faint from shock overload. :lol:
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Re: EPAC: SEYMOUR - Hurricane

#80 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 25, 2016 10:15 pm

Most amazing thing was until the HWRF was first run on the system, I doubted whether this would be much more than a minimal tropical storm.
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