EPAC: TINA - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: TINA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:42 am

EP, 92, 2016110812, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1034W, 20, 0, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS040, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 040,
EP, 92, 2016110818, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1047W, 20, 0, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS040, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 040,
EP, 92, 2016110900, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1057W, 20, 0, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS040, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 040,
EP, 92, 2016110906, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1065W, 20, 0, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS040, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 040,
EP, 92, 2016110912, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1073W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#2 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Nov 10, 2016 5:39 am

For a system in the midst of 40 knots of shear, this isn't doing too badly.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Nov 11, 2016 10:43 am

Not looking terrible, but not gonna form.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Nov 11, 2016 10:44 am

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located about 650 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Strong upper-level
winds currently affecting this system are expected to increase
further during the next couple days, and significant development of
the low is not expected while it moves generally northward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 13, 2016 6:27 pm

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM PST SUN NOV 13 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Satellite wind data indicate that the circulation of the low
pressure system located about 180 miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, has become much better defined and is producing
winds to tropical storm force well east of the center. Strong
upper-level winds are likely to increase further and preclude
significant development. However, any additional increase in
organization could result in the formation of a tropical cyclone.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance is
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over
portions of Colima and western Jalisco in Mexico through Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Beven
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 13, 2016 8:11 pm

EP, 21, 2016111400, , BEST, 0, 183N, 1071W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TINA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 040, TRANSITIONED, epF22016 to ep212016,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 13, 2016 8:12 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132331
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST SUN NOV 13 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased closer to the center of
the low pressure system located about 180 miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. If this trend continues, advisories would be
initiated on this system later this evening as a tropical cyclone.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance is
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over
portions of Colima and western Jalisco in Mexico through Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#8 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 13, 2016 8:38 pm

Tropical Storm Tina!!!

I had a very slight feeling this would happen. But like the NHC, I assessed the odds at near 0%! Wow.
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Re: EPAC: TINA - Tropical Storm

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 13, 2016 9:11 pm

TROPICAL STORM TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212016
900 PM MDT SUN NOV 13 2016

Organized deep convection has developed closer to the center of the
low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico since this afternoon. On this
basis, the system is being designated as a tropical storm with 35
kt winds, in agreement with a satellite classification of T2.5 from
TAFB and earlier ASCAT data. Even though Tina is over 30 deg C
waters, a large mid- to upper-level trough extending southwestward
into the eastern Pacific from the central United States is imparting
around 30 kt of south-southwesterly shear over the cyclone. This
shear is forecast to increase further during the next 24 hours when
a piece of the trough amplifies over the Gulf of Mexico, and this
should cause Tina to degenerate into a remnant low. The NHC
intensity forecast is consistent with the statistical-dynamical
guidance and shows dissipation by 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 350/03. In the very short term,
Tina should continue to move generally northward, or possibly
even erratically toward the current convective burst, in a deep
layer of south-southwesterly flow. Within about 12 hours, the shear
is forecast to be extremely strong and result in a decoupling of the
cyclone. Once this occurs, Tina should turn west-northwestward and
westward into the low-level flow around the eastern Pacific
subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast track is a little to the right
of all of the guidance through 12 hours and then merges with the
multi-model consensus until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 18.5N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 18.9N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 19.1N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1200Z 19.0N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: TINA - Tropical Storm

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 13, 2016 11:08 pm

Much like Karina 08, this is a classic case of quick fire storm fueled by poleword outflow but also in an extreme shear. These storms fall apart faster than they come together. Smart of Kimberlain to forecast a quick decay- he's very real about how fast EPAC storms decay/intensify, hence why he's one of the best forecasters in this basin.
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Re: EPAC: TINA - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:00 am

Late season surprise. Wonder if there will be anymore or if Tina will be the last.
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Re: EPAC: TINA - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:48 am

TROPICAL STORM TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212016
300 AM MDT MON NOV 14 2016

Strong south-southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Tina. The
convective burst that occurred during the evening hours became
displaced from the center and dissipated, but a new smaller burst of
convection has recently developed about 75 n mi northeast of the
center. Although Dvorak data T-numbers have decreased, a TAFB
Dvorak current intensity number of T2.5 supports maintaining Tina
has a 35-kt tropical storm, but this could be generous. Tina is
expected to be a short-lived tropical cyclone. The strong shear
that is currently over the system is forecast to increase to nearly
40 kt today, and dry mid-level air to Tina's west should cause the
tropical cyclone to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low within
the next 24 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is identical to
the previous advisory and is in good agreement with the statistical
guidance and dynamical models which show dissipation in 36 to 48
hours.

The tropical storm appears to have turned west-northwestward
overnight with an initial motion estimate of 300/5. As Tina weakens
and becomes a more vertically shallow system, it is expected to be
move generally westward within the low-level flow around a
subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific. The global models are in
relatively good agreement on this steering pattern and the NHC track
forecast is a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and GFS ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 18.7N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 18.8N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 18.9N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1800Z 18.9N 110.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TINA - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby zeehag » Mon Nov 14, 2016 8:34 am

the nonevent is in a location i associate with rapid intensification, off cabo corrientes.
so the magic made it a tina instead of merely thunderstorms.
hopefully this cools down our warmer ocean and lets us have a winter with normalish sea surface temps.
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Re: EPAC: TINA - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:30 am

Doesn't appear to be a TS any longer. Wind shear is tearing it apart.
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Re: EPAC: TINA - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:39 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212016
800 AM MST MON NOV 14 2016

Satellite images indicate that Tina is weakening. Deep convection
has decreased during the past several hours and is now confined to
a narrow curved band about 90 n mi northeast of the center. The
Dvorak classifications have lowered, and support reducing the
initial intensity to 30 kt. Very strong southwesterly shear of
nearly 40 kt and dry air will continue to affect the cyclone during
the next couple of days, which should cause additional weakening.
The system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low in 12 to 24
hours and will likely dissipate in a couple of days or less.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. A turn to the
west in the low-level easterly flow is expected later today as the
cyclone loses convection and becomes vertically shallow. The NHC
track forecast is a tad north of the previous one, based mainly on
the initial position, and lies near the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 19.0N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 19.1N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0000Z 19.1N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: TINA - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:47 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212016
200 PM MST MON NOV 14 2016

Tina is barely holding on to tropical cyclone status due to a curved
band of deep convection that has redeveloped in the northeastern
quadrant. However, the convection is gradually becoming fragmented
and the exposed low-level circulation continues to separate from the
convection due to Tina moving westward motion beneath southwesterly
upper-level winds of at least 40 kt. A drier and more stable air
mass, along with the aforementioned strong vertical wind shear
conditions, should result in Tina degenerating into a remnant low
pressure system during the next 12 hours and dissipating on
Wednesday.

Light easterly wind flow on the south side of low-/mid-level ridge
located to the north of Tina is expected to keep the shallow cyclone
moving slowly westward for the next 36-48 hours until dissipation
occurs. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 18.9N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 19.0N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/1800Z 19.1N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0600Z 19.1N 111.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#17 Postby bg1 » Mon Nov 14, 2016 7:56 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Tropical Storm Tina!!!

I had a very slight feeling this would happen. But like the NHC, I assessed the odds at near 0%! Wow.


Heh, me too.
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Re: EPAC: TINA - Post-Tropical

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:10 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212016
800 PM MST MON NOV 14 2016

Tina's circulation has become much less vigorous and diffuse today
in the absence of any additional convective bursts. The paltry
amount of convection that persists is not considered organized
enough to call Tina a tropical cyclone, and the system is thus being
declared a remnant low. Although the low is still over very warm
waters, a deep layer of very strong southwesterly shear and an
increasingly stabilizing and drier atmosphere should preclude
regeneration. Dissipation of the low is anticipated in 24 hours or
less, in agreement with the global models.

The remnant low is moving 270/06. The shallow vortex should
continue westward or west-southwestward under the influence of the
low-level subtropical eastern Pacific ridge until dissipation.

This is the last advisory on Tina. For additional information on
the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 18.9N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 15/1200Z 18.9N 110.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: TINA - Post-Tropical

#19 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:29 pm

Tina :lol:

Quite a weak b compared to her 1992 mom.
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Re: EPAC: TINA - Post-Tropical

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Nov 15, 2016 12:49 am

Good call. There's nothing left of Tina now.
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