WPAC: Remnant Low 28W

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13376
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 28W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 11, 2016 11:40 pm

000
WWMY80 PGUM 120357 CCA
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
130 PM CHST SAT NOV 12 2016

CORRECTED TYPO

GUZ001>004-130400-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
130 PM CHST SAT NOV 12 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

AT 100 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W WAS CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI AND ABOUT 855 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM...NEAR 9 DEGREES NORTH AND 157 DEGREES EAST. TD 28W WAS MOVING
WEST AT 20 MPH...AND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SLOWLY TURN WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 28W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY ON SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE TD 28W SOUTH OF
GUAM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MONDAY.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHEN OR HOW MUCH 28W WILL END
UP AFFECTING THE MARIANAS. HOWEVER...CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY INDICATE 35 KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OVER SOUTHERN
GUAM AND GUAM COASTAL WATERS. STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LISTEN FOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE
WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

KLEESCHULTE



931
WWPQ80 PGUM 120421
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
220 PM CHST SAT NOV 12 2016

PMZ172-PMZ173-130200-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-
220 PM CHST SAT NOV 12 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W COULD PASS NEAR HALL ISLANDS SUNDAY...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W WAS CENTERED ABOUT 310 MILES EAST OF FANANU
AND 340 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF WENO...AND IS MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.
TD 28W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AND TURN WEST-NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE TD 28W JUST NORTH OF
THE HALL ISLANDS IN CHUUK STATE ON SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER CHUUK AND NORTHERN
CHUUK STATE TODAY AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MONITORED CAREFULLY BECAUSE WINDS AND
WAVES WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT NEAR 28W AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD IN THE COMING DAYS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL 28W HAS PASSED AND SEAS SUBSIDE. HEAVY RAINS
COULD AFFECT THE HIGH LAGOON ISLANDS AND RAINFALL SHOULD BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITIES OR INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL...BE AWARE OF CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED ON
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ANY POSSIBLE ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.
TRAVEL BY BOAT SHOULD BE CAREFULLY PLANNED IN THE COMING DAYS.

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE
WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3279
Age: 16
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 28W

#22 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 12, 2016 2:04 am

NAVGEM pretty bullish on this one.

Image
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13376
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 28W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 12, 2016 5:11 am

JTWC has just issued the last warning on this. No surprise as models continues to not develop this and a possibility this may dissipate.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13376
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 28W

#24 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 12, 2016 5:24 am

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 9.2N 156.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 156.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 9.7N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 155.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186
NM NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AND RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
UNRAVELED AND OPENED INTO A WAVE. HOWEVER, FLARING SHALLOW CONVECTION
REMAINS OVER THE WAVE AND ALONG A FEEDER CONVERGENT LINE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND ON THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA. NUMERIC
MODELS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, DO NOT INITIALIZE A CIRCULATION
AND DO NOT PREDICT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. NAVGEM INDICATES
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO
BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY
WITHIN 12 HOURS, LET ALONE 48 HOURS AT BEST. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13376
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Remnant Low 28W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 12, 2016 3:13 pm

This system sure loves nighttime. Latest coordinates has the center right under the middle of the strongest convection.

28W TWENTYEIGH 161112 1800 9.2N 154.0E WPAC 20 1007

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13376
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Remnant Low 28W

#26 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 13, 2016 4:00 pm

28W TWENTYEIGH 161113 1800 12.1N 146.7E WPAC 20 1007
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13376
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Remnant Low 28W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 13, 2016 4:02 pm

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13376
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Remnant Low 28W

#28 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 13, 2016 4:03 pm

Past 2 GFS runs showing some possible reintensification before it hits Northern Visayas.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13376
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Remnant Low 28W

#29 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 14, 2016 5:10 am

Looks like JTWC has totally dropped this system, no invest whatsoever.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest