EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

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cycloneye
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EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:17 am

AL, 90, 2016111412, , BEST, 0, 111N, 755W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 90, 2016111418, , BEST, 0, 112N, 761W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 90, 2016111500, , BEST, 0, 113N, 766W, 20, 0, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 90, 2016111506, , BEST, 0, 114N, 771W, 20, 0, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 90, 2016111512, , BEST, 0, 115N, 775W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118506
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EPAC: OTTO - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:25 am

Image

Image
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ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#3 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:26 am

00z ECMWF still quite bullish with a ~970mb low by 216 hours. 00z GFS had a major hurricane in the SW Caribbean but appears to be struggling to consolidate the system on the 06z and splits the low into two separate areas of low pressure (GFS has a tendency to do this often with systems close to a trough).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#4 Postby tolakram » Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:42 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#5 Postby tolakram » Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:45 am

0Z Euro

Image

GFS loses it again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#6 Postby TheEuropean » Tue Nov 15, 2016 8:47 am

Satellite image from kachelmannwetter.com

Image

The permanent url to this image:

https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/sat/01c ... 1115z.html

Link to the latest satellite image of this region:

https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/sat/01c ... iabel.html

You can zoom further in if you want and click on >Play for a loop.

Here in europe we watch this system, too. May be there will be some influence on the atlantic weather if it could escape to the northeast next week, who knows.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#7 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Nov 15, 2016 9:53 am

Definitely has the look of something that might try to consolidate in the next few days. There's a LOT of instability in the SW Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#8 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 15, 2016 10:38 am

I think it's destined to become "Otto" by Friday or Saturday. Most likely, it will be trapped in the Caribbean rather than track NE across Haiti & the DR Mon/Tue. Could hang around in the south-central Caribbean for much of next week. How much cool, dry air will it ingest as that strong cold front sweeps across the Gulf into the NW Caribbean by late this weekend? I don't think it will be able to track NW and reach the Gulf. May eventually move inland into Central America.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#9 Postby panamatropicwatch » Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:20 am

Why is the storm floater page calling thins genesis036?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/73L/73L_floater.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#10 Postby Fego » Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:27 am

wxman57 wrote:I think it's destined to become "Otto" by Friday or Saturday. Most likely, it will be trapped in the Caribbean rather than track NE across Haiti & the DR Mon/Tue. Could hang around in the south-central Caribbean for much of next week. How much cool, dry air will it ingest as that strong cold front sweeps across the Gulf into the NW Caribbean by late this weekend? I don't think it will be able to track NW and reach the Gulf. May eventually move inland into Central America.


I read your outlook and Hurricane Mitch comes to my mind. I hope that this system stays in Caribbean waters rather that inland.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:31 am

!2z GFS again goes to Nicaragua/Honduras.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#12 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:57 am

could potentially cause major flooding for Panama
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#13 Postby xironman » Tue Nov 15, 2016 12:17 pm

I see an MLC headed NE out of the mess
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 15, 2016 12:52 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area cloudiness and thunderstorms is associated with a
broad low pressure system located over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow
development of this disturbance during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week or over the
weekend while the low drifts generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#15 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:51 pm

Already has that classic look, especially for this area of the Atlantic. Definitely starting to spin. What are the odds of us ending the season with three straight majors? What an interesting hurricane season it's been!
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:52 pm

12z ECMWF bombs 90L while moves thankfully slowly NNW to North and not to Nicaragua.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#17 Postby blp » Tue Nov 15, 2016 2:02 pm

The Euro and GFS modeled mid level environment look quite similar up to 144hrs. The major difference is the GFS seems to have issues with cyclogensis and keeps it weak through 144hrs whereby the Euro already has a TC and thus feels the weakness more. So we need to keep on eye on how quickly this develops. Faster development would lift it out quicker avoiding landfall in Nicaragua.

500mb GFS
Image

500mb Euro
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#18 Postby blp » Tue Nov 15, 2016 2:10 pm

Well if the Euro is right it will start wrapping up between 72-96hrs while the GFS is between 144-168hrs. Based on satellite and vorticity maps I think the GFS might be too slow in developing this. I think the Euro has the right idea right now IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 15, 2016 2:10 pm

HWRF first run bombs 90L while it does not move much.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#20 Postby gatorcane » Tue Nov 15, 2016 2:58 pm

Saved loop, starting to get "that look"

Image
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