EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#381 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:39 pm

TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222016
900 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2016

Otto is showing the effects of 20-25 kt of easterly vertical wind
shear, as the center is located near the eastern edge of the main
convective area. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
remain 55 kt, and there is a recent estimate of 47 kt from the
CIMSS satellite consensus technique. Based on these data, the
initial intensity remains 50 kt.

There are a lot of negative environmental factors in the intensity
forecast. In the first 12-24 hours, these include moderate to
strong shear and abundant dry air seen in water vapor imagery near
Otto. At 24-36 hours, the cyclone is likely to move across an area
of cooler sea surface temperatures. Finally, from 72-120 hours Otto
or its remnants should encounter more dry air and upper-level
convergent flow. Given these factors, it is not a surprise that the
global models forecast Otto to meet a quick demise. On the other
hand, the SHIPS and LGEM models forecast a slower decay and suggest
Otto could still be a tropical cyclone at 120 hours. The new
intensity forecast will lean a little more toward the global models
and show lower intensities than the previous forecast, with the
cyclone forecast to weaken to a depression at 96 hours and to a
remnant low at 120 hours. However, if the global models are right
both of these events could occur earlier.

The initial motion is 255/14. The cyclone continues to be south of
a strong deep-layer ridge over Mexico, and this steering pattern
will force Otto to move on a general west-southwestward to westward
track for the next 2-3 days. After that time, Otto or its remnants
will be located near the southwestern edge of the ridge, which
should result in a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in
forward speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement with
this scenario, although there is some divergence in how sharply the
system will turn northward at 120 hours. The new forecast track is
similar to the previous track through 96 hours, then it lies between
the previous track to the west and the consensus models to the east
at 120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 9.7N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 9.2N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 8.9N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 8.8N 98.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 8.8N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 10.0N 106.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 11.5N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 13.0N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#382 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:11 am

TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222016
300 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2016

Easterly vertical shear of around 20 kt continues to take a toll on
Otto, with the low-level center partly exposed to the east of the
convective canopy. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for
this advisory, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from
SAB.

The shear is expected to continue for the next couple of days, with
the cyclone encountering a progressively drier environment. As a
result, all of the global models show Otto dissipating in the next
2-3 days. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted a little
lower, and is below most of the TC intensity guidance given the
global model trends. Remnant low status is shown in 4 days with
dissipation forecast at day 5, but I would not be surprised if
both of these occurred sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 260/16. A fast westward to west-
southwestward motion is expected for the next 24 to 36 hours, as
Otto is steered by an expansive mid-level ridge to the north. The
ridge will weaken after 48 hours, which should result in Otto (if it
still exists) turning west-northwestward and then northwestward
prior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
south of the previous one, following the trend of much of the
guidance, but still lies north of the latest GFS and ECMWF
solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 9.2N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 8.7N 94.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 8.3N 97.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 8.1N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 8.4N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 9.5N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 11.5N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#383 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 26, 2016 10:26 am

Looks like Otto is now an open wave. So ends the 2016 Atlantic & East Pac hurricane seasons...
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Re: EPAC: OTTO - Post-Tropical

#384 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 26, 2016 3:43 pm

REMNANTS OF OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222016
300 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2016

The cloud pattern of Otto has continued to deteriorate during the
past several hours, and satellite images indicate that the system
has degenerated into an elongated trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are unfavorable for regeneration while the
the remnants of Otto continue to move westward embedded within the
low-level flow.

For additional information on the remnants of Otto please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 8.7N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF OTTO
12H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#385 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Nov 26, 2016 8:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks like Otto is now an open wave. So ends the 2016 Atlantic & East Pac hurricane seasons...



That's got to be some kind of first ... that the same storm ended both seasons.
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Re: EPAC: OTTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#386 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 26, 2016 10:06 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks like Otto is now an open wave. So ends the 2016 Atlantic & East Pac hurricane seasons...



That's got to be some kind of first ... that the same storm ended both seasons.


I hadn't thought of that.
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Re: EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

#387 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sun Nov 27, 2016 3:41 pm

Ex-Otto doesn't look very bad today, possibly trying to regenerate despite the unfavorable conditions. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/flash-rgb.html
Also interesting that the last GFDL runs yesterday and earlier always showed regeneration in the last days of the month.
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