EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Change of language is less bullish.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad low pressure area. This system has become
a little less organized since yesterday. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development during
the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend or early next week while the low moves slowly and
erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[wxman57]

Delayed development (Sunday/Monday), weaker, and faster movement inland into Nicaragua. Fine with me.

[gatorcane]

00Z UKMET quite bullish:

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.3N 81.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.11.2016 72 12.3N 81.1W 1006 33
0000UTC 21.11.2016 84 11.8N 80.3W 1003 31
1200UTC 21.11.2016 96 11.9N 79.2W 1002 33
0000UTC 22.11.2016 108 12.2N 78.2W 999 34
1200UTC 22.11.2016 120 12.6N 78.1W 996 42
0000UTC 23.11.2016 132 13.1N 78.5W 988 50
1200UTC 23.11.2016 144 13.5N 79.6W 982 56

[gatorcane]

and just like that, the 12Z ECMWF right there with the 12Z UKMET back to being bullish, makes landfall in Nicaragua as a hurricane.

[Alyono]

full EC has a cat2/3 hurricane

[gatorcane]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.3N 81.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.11.2016 72 12.3N 81.1W 1006 33
0000UTC 21.11.2016 84 11.8N 80.3W 1003 31
1200UTC 21.11.2016 96 11.9N 79.2W 1002 33
0000UTC 22.11.2016 108 12.2N 78.2W 999 34
1200UTC 22.11.2016 120 12.6N 78.1W 996 42
0000UTC 23.11.2016 132 13.1N 78.5W 988 50
1200UTC 23.11.2016 144 13.5N 79.6W 982 56

Graphical output now available:

[gatorcane]

Has a long way to go but the vorticity and structure are gradually improving with time, saved loop:

[Alyono]

the models that develop this indicate an eastward motion. Those that do not indicate this moving into Nicaragua on Saturday or Sunday

[wxman57]

the models that develop this indicate an eastward motion. Those that do not indicate this moving into Nicaragua on Saturday or Sunday

Except that the EC takes it to 962mb and into Nicaragua next Wednesday. I still think Nicaragua is the most likely landfall area.

[Alyono]

MU insists that this remains sheared

[Alyono]

EC is probably its resolution issue again. Not giving the EC ANY weight. Simply tossing it entirely

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

\_(ツ)_/





has divergence aloft.





If the low moves ssw over the next few days as some global models suggest, then it could be a chance at least @ a name.

[Sanibel]

Shear toast. My first impression was right. No environmental support.

[wxmann_91]

More likely than not this doesn't develop, which is the scenario supported by climo anyway. A lot of the progged east jog is due to a binary interaction with the tropical wave currently south of Hispaniola. It'll be interesting to watch the interaction between the two features in the coming days.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea are associated with a broad low pressure area. Upper-level
winds have become less conducive, and during the next couple of
days any development should be slow to occur. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early
next week while the low moves slowly and erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[MGC]

I also doubt 90L develops. Time to start Christmas shopping......MGC

[cycloneye]

I guess they are waiting for ECMWF to see if it continues to show it or it drops.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea are associated with a broad low pressure area. Upper-level
winds are currently only marginaly conducive, and during the next
couple of days any development should be slow to occur. After that
time, environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early
next week while the low moves slowly and erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[HurricaneRyan]

So much for having one last storm.

Nicole will be the earliest end to the season since 2006.

[Alyono]

vorticity appears to be too broad. Also, the models totally busted on the upper wind forecast. Instead of favorable conditions, we have strong shear